Weak Jobs Lift Markets as Yields Fall and Key Assets Test Resistance

The market is rallying hard this morning, but the reason is not stronger economic data. It is actually the opposite. The economy lost 23,000 jobs against expectations for a gain of 83,000, roughly a 100,000 job miss. The unemployment rate still fell 0.1% to 4.1%, but the labor force participation rate dropped to 61.4%, down 0.7% since January. That tells us fewer people are participating in the workforce.

The revisions were also weak. May went from 129,000 jobs to 63,000, while June went from 57,000 to just 20,000. Local government education lost 50,000 jobs, retail lost 19,000, and financial activities lost 14,000. Healthcare added 22,000. Average hourly earnings increased just 3.2% year over year, the slowest annual wage growth in years.

This does not confirm a recession, but it does reinforce the weakness underneath an economy where heavy capital spending from the largest artificial intelligence companies continues to provide support.

The market's immediate focus is interest rates. There is now a 56% probability of no Federal Reserve rate increase at the September 16, 2026, meeting. Unless inflation comes in unexpectedly strong or the next jobs report materially changes the picture, the Fed looks increasingly likely to remain on the sidelines.

That is why bad economic news is producing a strong market reaction. Lower expected rates mean easier financial conditions, and investors continue to respond positively to cheaper money.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) surged on the report before giving back part of the move. The next resistance sits just above 7,800, around 7,833. Getting there would mean roughly another 120 points, or about 1.5%. If the S&P 500 clears that area, the next major resistance is between 8,000 and 8,100, roughly another 3% to 4% higher.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply after the jobs report and is now testing a major daily trend line. It has not clearly broken yet, but it is beginning to pierce that level. A confirmed break could open another move lower. That becomes even more important following the coordinated U.S. and Japanese effort to strengthen the yen. Additional dollar selling could add more pressure if this technical breakdown develops.

The 10-year Treasury yield also dropped sharply to 4.6% before bouncing slightly. Lower yields are helping stocks, precious metals, and potentially Bitcoin.

Gold (XAU) continues to show significant strength after breaking out of its wedge pattern. It produced a large breakout candle, paused, and then pushed higher again. The first important resistance is around $4,375. That is the level to watch now. Either gold clears it and extends the breakout, or this recent surge begins to cool.

Silver (XAG) has also made a substantial move. Price is above the first trend line and testing the second. A daily close above $64, followed by confirmation, would strengthen the bullish case. Until then, I remain more neutral and would not rule out a pullback.

Crude Oil (CL) rallied modestly in the previous session but is pulling back today. The move is not large, but softer oil is another positive input for the broader market. The focus remains on whether a deal develops between the United States and Iran. Natural Gas (NG) is moving higher by roughly 1.75%. It did not reach the technical level I was watching before bouncing, but that level could still come back into play over the next several days.

In technology, Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) is up roughly 30% following strong earnings. This stock had fallen from $327 to a recent low of $57, then jumped from a previous close near $110 to almost $150. The next significant resistance zone is between $167 and $176. The chart also resembles a cup and handle formation, with earnings now driving the breakout.

The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is having the opposite reaction, down roughly 30% after missing earnings, revenue, and lowering guidance. The stock was around $141 in late 2024 and is now near $12.49, back around 2018 levels. A declining trend line makes roughly $12 an important technical area. The company remains profitable, has approximately $1.5 billion in cash, and a market capitalization of around $6 billion. The chief executive purchased $148 million of stock in March at around $25 to $26 and is now down roughly 50%, or about $75 million, on that purchase.

Twilio Inc. (TWLO) is moving sharply higher, with the next notable resistance around $275 to $276. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is also approaching an important area, with a gap fill around $507 and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement near $512. That puts $507 to $512 firmly on the radar as resistance.

Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is trading around $161 and change after strong results, with the next important pivot near $170. Strong earnings reactions can continue for several days, so patience matters before leaning against that strength.

Bitcoin (BTC) is also becoming more interesting. It has moved above $65,000 after breaking out of a descending wedge, with first resistance around $67,000. Above that, the upside levels are around $71,000 and potentially $77,000. Near term, the chart is bullish, even though the larger view remains that Bitcoin may not have completed its broader bear market bottom.

The common thread is clear: weaker jobs data is pulling yields lower, pressuring the dollar, supporting the S&P 500, strengthening gold, and giving Bitcoin room to push higher. But several major markets are now approaching resistance, so this is where price discipline matters. Let those levels confirm the next move rather than chasing strength directly into them.