The Week In Review: Stocks Rose on Weaker Jobs Data Despite Renewed Pressure From Treasury Yields

Stocks rose on Friday, October 2, 2026, as weaker job growth eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. But Treasury yields reversed their early decline, leaving the market caught between relief over softer economic data and the strain of expensive borrowing.

In One Minute

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) held a gain of about 3/4 of 1% heading into the close, while the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) gained 1% and reached a record high. Softer oil prices helped, but the United States 10 Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) rebounded to 5.281%. Stocks remained in bullish territory, although a yield breakout above resistance near the 2007 high threatened that strength. That was the main relationship I was watching heading into the following week.

The Setup

The jobs report gave stocks enough weakness to welcome, without showing an outright loss of jobs. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 against an 89,000 forecast. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, and hourly earnings increased by .1%, below the .3% forecast.

That combination eased pressure for Federal Reserve rate increases in October and December. Borrowing costs remained the bigger issue: higher rates made financing more expensive for households, businesses, and a United States government carrying $40 trillion in debt. The Treasury yield initially dropped to 5.15%, then climbed back to 5.281%, leaving it roughly flat to slightly higher on Friday. That reversal took some momentum out of stocks.

Yields around 5.28% to 5.3% remained near major resistance associated with the 2007 high. Back then, poor mortgage lending and rising interest rates had helped strain the financial system as borrowers struggled with payments. With government debt substantially higher this time, the concern was how much pressure the system could absorb. A sustained break above that resistance threatened a stock market selloff and, in a more severe outcome, a financial crisis.

What Changed

The S&P 500 pulled back from its early highs but held a substantial portion of its gains. It remained about 1% below its all-time high and above its neutral chart boundary, keeping the setup bullish. That resilience mattered with Treasury yields near 5.3%, at highs spanning more than 19 years.

The Nasdaq 100 reached a new all-time high for the first time since June 3, 2026. I remained bullish heading into the following week, while favoring more evenly weighted stock exposure as technology leaders at record highs faced the possibility of a breather.

Crude Oil (CL) fell Friday but finished the late session well above its lows. News that France might release 50 million barrels from its strategic reserve helped ease price pressure. With roughly one month before the midterm elections, the expectation was that oil would stay near its existing level or move lower. Pressure to bring down oil and gasoline prices ahead of the vote remained part of that outlook, even with the United States and Iran conflict in the background.

Oil traded between rising and falling trend lines. A line that had acted as resistance could become support on a decline. More immediate support sat at $89 per barrel, along a line connecting earlier lows. If $89 had failed, the next downside area was the lower trend line around $78 or $79 per barrel. That remained the anticipated move over the following month, provided support broke.

Natural Gas (NG) fell sharply early, then surged back. I remained bullish, although repeated swings had made the trade difficult. The position had moved slightly into positive territory. The bigger breakout level remained $330. Clearing $330 would have opened the way for a substantial advance.

Gold (XAU) jumped after the jobs report, then gave back part of the move as yields recovered. It repeatedly tested a long-term rising support line, which was still holding Friday.

If that line had failed, the recent low around $3945 would have come back into play. That area also matched an earlier low after gold’s initial surge and pullback, helping explain the previous rebound. Below it, the risk extended toward $3500, with little major support in between. A break of nearer support also left a test of $39.45 in play. The sideways, choppy candles following the earlier decline raised the possibility of a bear flag, a pause that could lead to another leg lower.

Silver (XAG) was slightly lower and faced a similar test of its rising support line. A break would have brought $55 into focus. If $55 had failed, the downside extended toward $50 or below $50. Both metals retained support, but repeated tests and the yield rebound kept the risk elevated.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) reached a new all-time high early Friday, tested its previous peak, and then eased back while retaining a 1.3% gain. That test created a possible double top, where price revisits an earlier high and meets resistance. I did not see that alone as the short entry. The more important area was a higher trend line NVIDIA had reached during previous advances.

That potential short setup sat around $255 or higher, depending on when price reached the line. There was no guarantee it would get there. The plan depended on waiting for the level, then acting without an emotional response to a fast move.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) was slightly positive, and Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) showed similarly modest strength. NVIDIA stood out against those quieter moves. Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) reported earnings during the week, but the result was largely a market non-event. It did little to change the broader focus on yields and oil.

NIKE, Inc. (NKE) delivered a sharp recovery after very weak earnings. The stock reached major weekly support around $3250, an area of earlier sideways trading, then rebounded strongly. The green candle showed buyers had pushed price above the session’s opening level. NIKE had fallen 9% from the previous close during regular trading and more than 10% at its premarket lows. Later, its loss narrowed to 3.67% and then about 3.6%.

The stock was already around decade lows and had priced in a very poor report. Once the bad news arrived, buyers appeared willing to consider whether the selling had gone far enough. Traders buying back shares to close bets on further declines may also have supported the recovery.

Volume exceeded 120 million shares. That heavy activity, combined with the rebound from established support, suggested selling might have exhausted itself, and a major turning point might have formed. I did not know how quickly a recovery would develop. Heading into the close, the meaningful combination was support, substantial volume, and a strong response after bad earnings.

The Clorox Company (CLX) also remained among the beaten-down stocks whose charts pointed to significant upside potential. Together, those setups supported interest in shares that had already suffered substantial declines.

Why It Matters

Stocks absorbed higher yields better than metals, and Bitcoin did on Friday. Softer oil helped relieve pressure, while selected beaten-down equities showed signs of recovery. That left a constructive stock market setup with a clear vulnerability. Relief from slower hiring mattered, but it had not removed the strain from borrowing costs.

Key Levels

Bull Case

The stock market’s bullish case rested on the S&P 500 staying above its neutral boundary. Its ability to hold gains despite elevated yields remained encouraging, while lower oil offered relief. Natural gas had its own confirmation level at $330. Gold and silver needed their rising support lines to keep holding. NIKE’s strong reversal and heavy volume supported a possible turning point, while Clorox offered another recovery setup among beaten-down shares.

Bear Case

The main risk was a Treasury yield break above resistance near the 2007 high. For oil, losing $89 exposed $78 or $79. Gold faced its recent low around $3945 if the rising line failed, with a $39.45 support test also in play and bigger risk toward $3500. Silver’s breakdown path ran through $55 toward $50 or below.

Technology leaders could have paused after reaching record highs. NVIDIA’s potential short remained tied to the higher trend line around $255 or above.

What to Watch Next

The following week brought more economic news and earnings, but yields and oil remained the main focus.

I was watching whether Treasury resistance held, whether the S&P 500 stayed above its neutral boundary, and whether oil maintained $89 support. The other confirmations were natural gas clearing $330, the metals holding their rising lines, NIKE building on its recovery, and NVIDIA reaching its planned upper trend line.

Bottom Line

Treasury yields remained the main force connecting the market. Stocks held up, softer oil helped, and metals and Bitcoin struggled to keep their early gains. I stayed bullish on stocks while watching that yield resistance closely, with patience and planned price levels guiding the next move.