Tech Spending Fears Hit the Nasdaq as the S&P 500 Holds and Bitcoin Tests Support

The market ended the week with a clear split between the broader market and technology. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished nearly flat, up a little more than 3 points, while the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) fell 1.1%. Money is still coming out of major technology names and moving into more defensive areas of the S&P 500, which is why the broader index is holding up better for now.

The S&P 500 remains trapped between support and resistance, so I am watching which side breaks first. The Nasdaq 100 is getting closer to an important rising support trend line after breaking below a wedge, retracing, and moving lower. The first test of a major trend line usually has the best chance of producing a bounce. The second test can still hold, the third becomes closer to 50%, and by the fourth test, the odds increasingly favor a breakdown. If the Nasdaq 100 reaches that support on Monday, the setup suggests roughly a 70% probability of an initial bounce.

The larger risk is a confirmed break below the rising support trend lines on either the Nasdaq 100 or the S&P 500. That is where the market could open the door to a much deeper decline.

Technology remains the main pressure point because investors are questioning how much these companies are spending on artificial intelligence and whether they are getting enough return. Intel Corporation (INTC) initially surged more than 10% after earnings, but the move reversed when the company said capital spending would increase. The stock then fell about 8%, and the total decline from the after-hours high to the following session low reached 19.4%.

Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL) also reported strong earnings, but the stock fell after the company said spending would increase to $200 billion this year and rise again next year. Investors are no longer rewarding artificial intelligence spending simply because it sounds ambitious. They want to see profits.

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) shows how quickly that concern can change a stock. Oracle traded near $345 and is now around $115, a decline of 67%, or about two-thirds of its value. The next important support area is near $111 to $112. That could produce a technical bounce, especially if other technology names reach support at the same time.

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) fell 11% and is moving toward a possible bounce zone between $125 and $112.50. That area includes a major prior pivot and several gaps, but the broader expectation remains that these stocks could eventually retrace about 75% of their earlier rallies. Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) declined about 7%, and the chart still points toward a possible gap fill near $75.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) was the major exception. Apple has not spent the same massive amounts on artificial intelligence infrastructure, and the stock is being rewarded as money leaves the companies facing the most pressure over spending. Apple is now approaching major resistance near $336. A rejection there could happen around the same time the weaker technology names begin a short-term bounce.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) also had a difficult week, falling roughly 20%. That decline reinforces the broader shift away from expensive growth companies when spending is rising, and the return remains uncertain.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) moved above $93 per barrel before pulling back about 2.2%. The decline started near a 50% retracement and a descending resistance trend line. The next move will depend heavily on whether tensions involving the United States and Iran escalate over the weekend. If nothing new happens before Sunday night, oil could fall further as some of the geopolitical premium fades.

Gold Spot Price (XAUUSD) is holding near $3,900 after falling from roughly $5,600. The next move depends on the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the 10 Year US Treasury Yield (TNX). If the dollar breaks higher and yields rise, gold could fall toward $3,500. If the dollar fails to break out, the area near $3,900 could mark the low of this pullback.

Silver Spot Price (XAGUSD) remains stuck between resistance near $63 to $64 and support near $54. Natural Gas Futures (NG) continue to hold an important support level, but several resistance trend lines are converging above the price. A move toward $3.10 followed by a confirmed breakout could give natural gas room to run.

Bitcoin (BTC) tested $67,000 and was rejected, which is normal after a strong move into resistance. The key support zone is $63,000 to $63,500. If Bitcoin holds that area, the setup still favors another attempt above $67,000 and a move toward roughly $72,000. If it starts breaking into the low $62,000 area, the risk of a deeper pullback increases.

Right now, patience matters more than chasing. The Nasdaq 100 needs to hold support, artificial intelligence companies need to prove their spending can produce returns, gold needs the dollar to weaken, and Bitcoin needs to defend $63,000 to $63,500. The next confirmed break will matter more than the next headline.