Tech’s Shift in Structure: Fed Credibility, Collapsed Chip Stocks, and Tactical Bounces

The market sold off sharply because Kevin Warsh talked tough about controlling prices but gave very few details about how he plans to do it. That lack of clarity mattered. The 30-year yield moved higher, which suggests the bond market heard the message but did not fully believe meaningful action would follow.

That credibility problem is even more important because President Trump previously said he would not appoint a Federal Reserve chair who would raise rates. Even after Warsh’s hawkish comments, the September odds of a rate hike remained elevated but moved lower. So the market heard tough language, but the expected policy response became slightly less aggressive.

There were other pressures at the same time. Semiconductor stocks were already under heavy selling pressure, and investors were worried about the United States responding to Iran. The United States did strike back, but Crude Oil Futures (CL) remained roughly flat. That helped prevent an additional energy shock, but it did not repair the broader technical weakness.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is now showing a clear change in market structure. We previously had a high, a higher low, and a higher high. That pattern has now shifted to a lower low, followed by a lower high, and then another lower low. Until the market proves otherwise, that weakens the bullish cycle.

The index has also fallen back below the major parallel trend line connecting the 2021 bull market high with the highest pivot from October 2025. That October 2025 pivot also lined up closely with the top in Bitcoin. After such a large decline, a bounce is reasonable, and it could last one day or several days. The problem is that the old support zone created by the prior lows and rising trend line may now become resistance.

That means the next stretch will be important. Personal Consumption Expenditures data is coming, jobs data follows next week, and earnings are creating major moves in individual stocks. Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) sold off sharply after earnings, but that appears to be more of a Meta-specific issue. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) delivered strong earnings and is helping support the broader rebound.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) is also helping stabilize sentiment. It declined only 1% after triggering maximum downside circuit breakers during each of the prior two sessions. That smaller decline gives investors some confidence that the immediate selling pressure may be reaching a near term floor.

Technically, the KOSPI is sitting in a broad support zone containing gap fills, prior pivot lows, and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. That matters because Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930) and SK hynix Inc. (000660) are major semiconductor companies within that market.

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) has seen one of the most dramatic reversals. The stock climbed to $2,350, then collapsed below $1,000 and reached $970 during after-hours trading. That decline brought it into a major support area defined by the original low pivot, the rising trend line, and a gap zone.

After being at a short above $2,000, SanDisk now looks like a tactical bounce setup below $1,000. The expected retracement zone is roughly $1,300 to $1,350, where prior pivot lows and a small head and shoulders structure create likely resistance. That could still be a meaningful move, but it should be treated as a swing rather than proof that the larger decline is over.

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) is also bouncing after the selloff. That supports taking partial gains into strength while keeping some exposure for a larger rebound.

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) filled a large gap from its final blowoff move and is starting to catch a bid. The key lesson is that chasing Micron above $1,000, while analysts were raising targets to $1,700 and $2,000, carried far more risk than waiting for a full retracement.

The same thing happened with SanDisk. Analysts were raising targets toward $3,000 when the stock was above $2,000. Extreme optimism showed up near the top, while extreme fear appeared after the collapse. That is why price structure matters more than the emotion surrounding a stock.

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) has also completed a major retracement after an extended rise. The decline returned the stock to a broad support area containing a prior gap fill, another gap below it, and a long period of earlier sideways trading. A rebound toward the prior pivot low and gap fill near $515 is possible.

Gold Spot Price (XAUUSD) reacted positively to the Federal Reserve press conference, but it remains trapped inside its wedge. The longer-term gold case is tied to five forces: money supply, fear of fiat debasement, debt growth, the dollar, and real interest rates.

Current United States debt issuance is running near $2 trillion per year, while global money supply growth is 7%. The base case assumes annual United States debt growth reaches $2.8 trillion over the next five years, an increase of $0.8 trillion per year from the current pace. Under those conditions, the projected average price at the next major gold cycle peak is $13,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) still has a constructive structure as long as the current support holds. The key confirmation level is 67,000. A clean break above 67,000 would strengthen the bullish setup and open the door to 71,000 to 72,000.

The market is trying to bounce, but the technical damage in the Nasdaq 100 Index has changed the larger setup. This is a market for buying fear at defined support, taking profits into strong rebounds, and refusing to chase after the easy part of the move has already happened.