Tech Rally Strengthens as Rising Treasury Yields Test Market Momentum

Stocks are pushing higher, led by renewed strength in technology after NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) delivered strong earnings and reported more than a $2 trillion backlog. The bigger issue is whether that momentum can continue while the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) keeps moving higher and remains a source of pressure for the broader market.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX), tracked through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), has improved after spending several sessions around its 20-day moving average. SPY has pushed back into its previous consolidation range, which strengthens the near-term setup, although the rising trend line overhead remains resistance.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX), tracked through the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ), also looks stronger. Its 20-day moving average is above the 50-day, and the 50-day is above the 200-day. The next major resistance is $725.02, about $5 above the referenced closing level. Repeated tests can weaken resistance, so another push into that area matters.

The 10-year yield moved higher even as stocks rallied. That is important because rising yields have generally pressured equities. Increased government purchases of longer-dated bonds are also influencing the yield curve, with those purchases expected to continue through the beginning of November. That could give stocks some room to move higher into the midterm election period, but I would not expect an aggressive rally if yields remain elevated. Inflation is still part of the risk, with this week's CPI reading keeping that concern alive. Nonfarm payrolls and Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole appearance are both scheduled for 10:00 AM tomorrow.

Gold Futures (GC) remain constructive above $4,575 support. Gold can still pull into the middle or lower portion of the recent large green candle without breaking the bullish structure, but $4,575 remains the key level to hold. Silver Futures (SI) bounced away from $67.99, although that support has been tested repeatedly, which weakens it. At the same time, silver is forming a bull flag, so I want to see price create more distance from $67.99.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CL) were up 2% and continue pushing higher. Resistance is around $84.70. If that area is cleared and the rally continues through the higher pivot range, the next stated target is $96.44. Natural Gas Futures (NG) are testing $2.90. Price closed above it yesterday but did not confirm with another strong close today. Getting back above the nearby pivots would improve the chances that $2.90 becomes support.

Technology remains the strongest part of the market. NVIDIA has more demand than its current chip supply can satisfy, and technically the stock bounced from a previously broken trend line. Near-term resistance is $231.18. Above that, the recent all-time highs come back into play, followed by resistance around $240, the 50% area of the larger rising parallel channel.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is an important confirmation signal. It has moved back above its rising parallel channel and declining trend line, but the bigger test is the 50-day moving average at $584. Daily closes above $584 would materially improve the setup and open the door to another test of the recent all-time highs.

Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) rallied more than 20% after earnings, with earnings per share up 80% and revenue up 0.13%. The next major barrier is just below $260. CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) also gained more than 20%, with resistance around $232.32. Okta, Inc. (OKTA) surged 28%, but $198.55, just below $200, is a major resistance area that also lines up with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) has moved back inside its parallel channel, and another higher close would improve the setup for a possible test above $400.

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) produced a sharp bounce after earnings after dropping into a gap fill and a previously broken trend line, showing buyers responding where old resistance became support. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is moving higher, but the rally has come with limited consolidation. Resistance begins at $381.28, followed by $387.23, with the broader resistance zone sitting around $385 to $389. That is an area where momentum could begin to slow.

Bitcoin (BTC) is now testing one of its most important resistance levels at $80,524. That level goes back to a November 2025 pivot and has repeatedly rejected Bitcoin from below. The recent rally has already been substantial, so some consolidation or a pullback would fit the current structure.

If Bitcoin can eventually break through $80,524, the next stated destination is around $89,000 by September. The key is not whether Bitcoin has momentum, because it clearly does. The real test is whether buyers can absorb profit-taking and eventually turn $80,524 from resistance into support.

Overall, the market is improving, especially in technology, but several major assets are moving directly into resistance while the 10-year yield remains a pressure point. This is a market where patience matters: let price confirm the breakout before chasing the move.