Tech Leads the Rebound, but S&P Support and Bitcoin’s $63,000 Level Still Matter

The market is holding relatively steady after grinding higher overnight, although we are starting to see some fading before the open. Technology is still extending yesterday’s rebound, but after a week packed with earnings, the Federal Reserve decision, and some extreme volatility, the market may need time to settle.

The bigger question is still the S&P 500 Index (SPX). Price briefly closed below the major trend line connecting the 2021 bull market high and the 2025 pivot high, but the breakdown did not confirm. Confirmation required another close below the low of that prior session, and that did not happen. For now, the bull market remains technically intact.

The concern is that this trend line keeps getting tested. The first test of a major trend line can carry bounce odds above 80%. The second may carry about 70%, and the third roughly 60%. By the fourth test, the odds move closer to 50%. This latest bounce came from the third test, but another return to that line in a week or two could become the break that matters. If support fails with confirmation, the probability of a larger decline toward roughly 7,000 on the S&P 500 increases.

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) rallied 18% overnight after reaching a major support zone. Much of that move came from Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930.KS) and SK hynix Inc. (000660.KS). The index had already been halted twice during severe declines, but it was down only 1% before the rebound, which showed that selling pressure was beginning to stabilize near support.

That rebound is also pulling retail investors back toward the artificial intelligence trade, but the technology can remain important even if some semiconductor stocks have already reached major tops. After corrections of 50% to 60%, many investors remain trapped at higher prices and may sell into the recovery.

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) pierced the major round level at $1,000 and has already gained 35% from that area. The more interesting short setup would come if price rallies toward the trend line and the 0.618 retracement near $1,800 or slightly above. That would create two technical factors in the same area. If the price never reaches that zone, there is no reason to chase it.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) recorded one of its largest moves ever, adding roughly $500 billion in market value. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is up about 10% after earnings, with the key day trading area near $270. There is not enough clarity yet for a swing trade, so the better approach is to let the post-earnings volatility settle.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) entered earnings near major resistance and printed a long upper wick two sessions ago, showing heavy selling near the highs. Price is now trading much lower. A move through $300 could create a day trading opportunity, while a potential swing entry may develop closer to the $275 pivot low, where a parallel channel could provide support.

Semiconductor stocks broadly gained more than 20% yesterday, and several are extending those moves today. Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) rose roughly 30% in the prior session. That does not automatically mean the group is ready to short. The rebound still needs time to mature.

Roblox Corporation (RBLX) has also experienced a sharp decline. The more interesting trading area is near $35.50, but the price has not reached it yet. Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) dropped after earnings and is continuing lower into the open. The key pivot there is near $140, which could become a useful day trading level.

The U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen Exchange Rate (USD/JPY) fell sharply yesterday and is now bouncing. A rising pair means the Japanese yen is weakening against the U.S. dollar. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) also dropped 1.75 points over two days after reaching resistance, but gold did not respond as strongly as expected.

Gold Spot Price (XAU/USD) briefly moved above its trend line and was pushed back down. With a dollar decline of that size, a move of $200 to $300 in gold might have been expected, but the actual response was modest. The longer term outlook still projects the next major peak between 2029 and 2031, with an average price near $13,000.

Silver Spot Price (XAG/USD) looks weaker. Price remains below two major trend lines and is moving sideways near the lows. There is about an 80% chance of a move below $54 and roughly a 70% chance of a move below $50 before the bottom is established.

The 30 Year U.S. Treasury Yield (US30Y) also continues to rise, keeping pressure on housing as mortgage financing becomes more expensive.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains technically bullish, but $63,000 is the level that has to be held. As long as it does, the cup and handle structure keeps open the possibility of a move above $67,000 and then toward $71,000 to $72,000. A break below $63,000 would increase the risk of a retest of the lows and potentially a deeper decline.

The market is offering major moves, but not every move is a clean setup. The priority is to wait for the price to reach the level, demand confirmation, and avoid forcing a trade before the probabilities line up.