Tech Leads the Market Rebound as Rising Yields Keep Risk Elevated

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the session up 0.7%, but the percentage gain is not the most important part of the story. What matters is that the index recovered a major trend line connecting the 2021 bull market high with the highest point in 2025.

We did get a close below that line, but the breakdown never confirmed with a second close below the breakdown candle. Buyers stepped back in, pushed the market above support, and produced a two-day bounce. That keeps the recent move in the category of a possible false breakdown rather than a confirmed change in trend.

The next resistance is the descending line connecting the recent high pivots. The market could test that area as early as Monday at around 755. A clean break through it would bring the all-time highs back into focus and could support another move higher. Until that happens, the market has repaired some technical damage, but it has not completely cleared resistance.

The US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate (USDJPY) also needs attention after a steep two-day decline. The yen had weakened so much against the US dollar that intervention became a growing concern. These sudden currency moves have created fear in the stock market before, but the S&P 500 has mostly ignored the risk so far because semiconductors and major technology earnings have supported the broader market.

The bigger pressure is coming from Treasury yields. The US 10 Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) closed above 4.7% for the first time since January 2025, while the US 30 Year Treasury Yield (US30Y) reached levels not seen since June 2007. Those higher long-term borrowing costs continue to weigh on housing.

Florida housing activity has already slowed dramatically, with very little transaction activity. Prices have not collapsed, but weak activity can be an early warning if yields remain elevated. Massive capital spending from mega-cap companies is still helping support the economy, but the market is now balancing that spending against tighter financial conditions.

Technology earnings helped prevent a larger market breakdown. Semiconductors reversed sharply after being hit earlier in the week, including an 18% overnight rally that restored momentum to the group.

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) gained more than 15%, filled an open gap, and reached a nearby pivot high. The move is strong, but there is no clean setup at the current level. The more important resistance is near $290, where the upper boundary of a developing parallel channel could increase the probability of a pullback.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) gained another 3%, bringing the larger move to roughly 20%. The next major area is the gap between $481 and $482. That zone should act as resistance and will help show whether buyers still have enough momentum to continue higher.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) dropped to exactly $300 and then rebounded about $9. The $300 level worked as support. Before the decline, Apple had broken a support trend line below, repeatedly failed when it retested that line from underneath, and then formed a long upper wick near the highs. That created a strong bearish reversal setup.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) bounced after falling into an established trend line following earnings. The earnings were strong, but increased capital spending pressured the stock. The support is still holding, but every additional test weakens it. Another return to that line would raise the probability of a breakdown.

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) recovered from its earnings gap and gained about 3%. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) also bounced from a trend line connecting several pivot lows. These moves helped stabilize the broader market, but leadership remains concentrated in a relatively small group of large technology companies.

Gold Spot Price (XAUUSD) attempted to break out but was rejected. The concern is that the US Dollar Index (DXY) was flat to negative while gold still declined. The dollar also fell for four consecutive sessions, yet gold was nearly unchanged over that entire period. That is not the type of behavior you want to see from a convincing breakout.

Higher Treasury yields are taking some strength away from gold. The longer-term setup may still be constructive, but the price action needs to improve and respond more clearly when the dollar weakens.

Silver Spot Price (XAGUSD) remains in a bearish holding pattern below two important trend lines. It broke beneath a base support line, retested it from below, and was rejected. Silver would need to move above $64 per ounce before the structure becomes meaningfully bullish.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) entered the week near its highs, sold off sharply, and then bounced modestly. It is now trading inside a wedge without a confirmed direction. This remains a neutral setup until the price produces either a breakout or a breakdown.

Henry Hub Natural Gas (NATGAS) also remains quiet after moving lower early in the week and recovering slightly later. The lower trend line is the first major technical support and would be the more meaningful area to evaluate if the price continues lower.

Bitcoin (BTC) is sitting near a critical trend line around $63,000. Several prior lows have held this same rising support, and the price briefly moved below it before recovering. Bitcoin needs to hold near $63,000 to preserve its slight bullish bias. Weekend trading may provide less reliable confirmation because volume is lighter, so the weekday reaction will matter more. Bitcoin is not breaking down, but it also showed relative weakness while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) moved higher.

The market has recovered an important support level, but the next move still depends on confirmation. Watch $755 on the S&P 500 (SPY), $290 on Amazon, $481 to $482 on Microsoft, $300 on Apple, $64 on silver, and $63,000 on Bitcoin. Let price reach the levels, confirm the setup, and then act with discipline.