Tech Holds Up, Bitcoin Rebounds, but High Yields Keep Risk Elevated

The S&P 500 Index (SPX), through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), is still holding above the declining trend line it broke last Friday. But it has tested that same line two days in a row, and repeated tests can weaken support. The lower wick was constructive, but the price is not accelerating. Resistance is around $760, then $769. If SPY falls back into the wedge, support is near $744.29.

The Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ), gained 1.12% and stayed inside its wedge or pennant. That was impressive considering the damage in IBM. Resistance is $72551, then $73362. Support is $7178, with major support at $70434.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) also finished higher as strength in memory-related stocks, helped by SK hynix Inc. (000660.KS), supported the semiconductor sector. SMH still has not cleared its July 2 candle. Resistance is near $627. Support is $58,579, then $55261.

The biggest macro warning came from the Cboe 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index (TNX). Inflation came in weaker than expected, yields initially dropped, then recovered without breaking support. That is the concern. If inflation cools but yields stay elevated, technology stocks can still face selling pressure.

COMEX Gold Futures (GC) moved higher but stayed inside the prior day’s range, with resistance at $4,168. COMEX Silver Futures (SI) gained 1.9% but again closed below its declining trend line. Support is $5509, then $4978.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CL) had the stronger move. Crude broke through the $75 to $76 resistance area, reached $8133, then pulled back. A break above $8133 puts $85.75 next. Support remains near $75.

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG) have produced lower wicks near the $2.90 pivot for three consecutive sessions. That shows buyers are trying to defend the level. Support is $2.75.

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) has been falling for weeks and is confirmed below its parallel channel. The next support is $118.86. A rebound could eventually retest $143 to $144. The weekly Relative Strength Index is showing divergence, while the daily reading has fallen to 25.52. Oracle is approaching an area where a bounce could develop.

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) dropped 25% after warning that revenue could miss expectations by 5%, against an expected figure of $1.7 billion. The move was compared with IBM’s Black Monday decline in 1987. Near term support is $217 to $218. If that fails, the next level is $2115, followed by the $200 area, with a wider support range from $203 to $199.

Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (ERIC) fell 13.48% after revenue missed expectations by 3.72%. Support is $969, then $926.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) reached new all-time highs after a major change in momentum from February and March. If it confirms above the current candle, the 50% channel level near $20525 could become support. The next resistance would be around $240 to $250 by the end of July.

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) remains under a triggered head-and-shoulders pattern. The neckline is near $1,413, with a measured target at $111026. It needs two consecutive daily closes above the neckline to weaken that bearish setup. Above that, resistance is $147306.

Bitcoin (BTC) gained 3.47% and is trying to move back inside its parallel channel. A close above $64,918 would improve the near term setup and open the door toward $67,330. But the weekly head and shoulders pattern still carries a measured target of $37,000.

So this is not a fully risk-free market. Stocks held up, semiconductors were resilient, and Bitcoin bounced. But yields stayed elevated, the S&P 500 struggled to extend its breakout, and several major technology names were hit hard.

The next test is the Producer Price Index month-over-month report. That could determine whether today’s mixed reaction settles down or develops into another wave of volatility.