Market Data / Market note
Tech Earnings Drive the Rally as Gold, and Bitcoin Toward Key Resistance Levels
Can tech earnings push the market through major resistance?
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is still grinding higher after breaking out of its wedge and holding former resistance as support. The next major level is just above 7,800, with 7,810 as the resistance to watch. The first support would be the former all-time high at 76.20. Below that, the descending trend line becomes the second support, followed by a third support zone underneath it. A clean break above 7,810 would bring the next resistance level into play.
The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) has rallied 10% from its recent low after the close on Wednesday, July 29. That move has been driven by a semiconductor rebound and heavy buying in Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Meta Platforms Inc. (META), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and other large technology names.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is approaching major resistance between $737 and $738. That area combines a gap fill, the 0.886 Fibonacci retracement, and an established pivot zone. It is only about 1.5% away, but it could still produce significant resistance.
ADP private sector employment increased by 44,000 jobs, slightly below expectations. That puts more attention on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Falling oil prices have also pulled the 10 year United States Treasury yield lower, reducing some pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates in September. I am still skeptical that a September hike will happen. Kevin Warsh has used tough language, but I have not seen enough substance to confirm it. The United States Dollar Index (DXY) is also weakening toward an important trend line. A weaker dollar and lower yields are helping support risk assets.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) is down about 8% in premarket trading after earnings. The numbers were good, but guidance and margins disappointed investors. AMD was also close to its all time high and had only experienced a modest pullback, while SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) had previously corrected between 50% and 60%. The first AMD day trade level is just below $450, where a rising trend line meets a recent low. I would treat that as an intraday reaction level, not a swing trade entry.
SpaceX (SPCX) is also falling sharply after earnings. Revenue was strong, but the large shareholder lockup remains a major source of selling pressure. The stock’s earlier advance measured $75. Applying that same $75 move from the later peak gives a downside target between $95 and $97. That is where I would reevaluate it for a possible swing trade.
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) surged after earnings, moved through the gap fill near $156, and pulled back. The next major resistance is near $171. If the stock reaches that level during the session, the move would be extremely extended and could create a day trade setup.
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. (SEDG) dropped from around $48 and change to about $40. The first potential scalp area is between $39 and $38. For a possible swing trade, $34.50 is more interesting because of the gap fill, followed by another potential entry near $32. Both levels need to be reevaluated if reached.
The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is bouncing after earnings, with the key trend line near $106.50. Below it, that level remains resistance and could produce rejection. A confirmed breakout changes the setup. If Disney then pulls back to the same trend line, former resistance could become support.
Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) is down approximately 5% to 6% after earnings. A longer-term trend line sits near $66 and change, but it has already been tested five times. Another test would be the sixth, and the odds of a break may then be 50% or greater. I would let the level prove whether it can hold.
Gold Futures (GC) are producing a strong breakout candle. A close above the previous session would confirm the move. Gold could continue toward $4,500 before retracing to a lower level later in the year. Silver Futures (SI) are also rallying, but $64 remains the major resistance. Until silver clears $64, that level can continue to limit the move.
Crude Oil Futures (CL) are showing only a small bounce after the previous session’s large decline. The market is still waiting to see whether a potential agreement between the United States and Iran materializes.
Bitcoin (BTC) is pressing against a descending trend line connecting several major highs. The breakout has not happened yet, but repeated tests can weaken resistance, and gold’s breakout increases the probability that Bitcoin could follow. A confirmed move above the trend line would put $71,000 to $72,000 in focus first. If Bitcoin clears that zone, the next target is approximately $77,000.
The S&P is approaching 7,810, QQQ is nearing $737 to $738, gold is breaking out, and Bitcoin is testing major resistance. The levels are clear, so let price confirm the breakout, rejection, or support before committing.