Stocks Stall as Sticky Inflation and NVIDIA Test Tech Support

Stocks are mostly flat and trying to stabilize as sticky inflation keeps the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) elevated at 4.649% and supports a firmer U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). The bigger question is whether technology can regain momentum while higher yields pressure equities and precious metals, with several major markets sitting directly on important support or resistance.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) remains in bearish near-term consolidation after pulling back from its August 14 pivot high. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is sitting near important support at $760.40, the previous all-time high that price broke above and confirmed. Normally, I would view a retracement into that level as a potential buying opportunity, but price has been consolidating directly on top of support instead of bouncing strongly. That repeated pressure increases the risk that $760.40 eventually gives way.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) finished up just 0.09%, but it has been moving diagonally lower for roughly six trading days. I would rather see some sideways consolidation here because that would stabilize the decline before the next larger move.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) was basically flat, down 0.01%, and remains one of the more important gauges for technology. It briefly moved above its 50-day moving average before selling back into its parallel channel. If weakness continues, the next important support is the 50% area of that channel at $528.46. A move back above the declining trend line would improve the bullish picture.

That brings us to NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). After earnings, NVIDIA initially fell to $203.50 after closing at $209.66. The lower part of its parallel channel sits at $197.78. Below that, I am watching support around $197, followed by a gap fill at $195 and another gap area just under $190 near the July 29 low. The key question is whether NVIDIA maintains its recent breakout or turns it into a failed breakout.

Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) continues to show strength after breaking above an inclining trend line, retesting it, and moving back above it. Near-term resistance is $203.67. A gap above that level would create a clearer path toward the all-time high area around $213.64. Analyst upgrades are in the $250 to $300 range.

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) is also holding a near-term breakout after retesting its declining trend line. The next destination is $970, followed by the 50% area of its parallel channel. Continued strength would keep all-time highs in play, although a calmer U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield would help.

In metals, Gold Futures (GC) declined 1.46% and looks like it may need a breather. Near-term support is $4,575, and price is barely maintaining that area after returning to its rising parallel channel. Silver Futures (SI) declined about 1% but remains above $67.99. That level is still constructive for buyers, although silver has tested it almost every day since moving above it, which increases the importance of the daily close.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CL) bounced after its breakout and retracement, although the rebound was muted. The breakout remains intact, with $84.52 as the next area to watch. Natural Gas Futures (NG) are approaching a potential breakout at $2.90. I want to see a daily close above $2.90, followed by enough separation for that level to become support on a pullback.

Bitcoin (BTC) has had a strong move over the last several weeks and is now consolidating above $76,000. That is the key level I want to see Bitcoin continue holding on a daily closing basis. The immediate resistance area is $80,524 to $80,580. A confirmed break through that zone would put the next major resistance around $89,000, just below $90,000. Until that happens, Bitcoin is still consolidating rather than confirming the next breakout.

On the earnings side, Intuit Inc. (INTU) recovered sharply after initially falling to just above $300. It opened in the low $320 range and closed at $345, although it still finished down 3.24%. The $300 area remains important support, with a gap fill at $296.33 and an upside area near $352.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) surged more than 35% after earnings and is now testing its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area. The daily RSI is 79, so I would be patient after such a large move. Around $130 is the more aggressive pullback area, while $122 is the more conservative level. The next upside levels are $146 and, if momentum continues, $168.84.

Right now, several markets are sitting exactly where patience matters most. SPY needs to defend $760.40, NVIDIA needs to hold the breakout structure, gold needs to protect $4,575, silver needs to stay above $67.99, natural gas needs confirmation above $2.90, and Bitcoin needs to keep holding $76,000 before challenging $80,524 to $80,580. I would rather let those levels confirm the next move than chase price before the market makes its decision.