Stocks Rise Ahead of Warsh as Treasury Yields Keep Pressure High

S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures are moving higher ahead of Kevin Warsh’s 10:00 AM Jackson Hole speech, with the market appearing to lean toward the possibility that he will not be overly hawkish. The bigger issue is whether that optimism can hold while long-term Treasury yields remain elevated and continue to pressure financial conditions.

Going into the speech, the Federal Reserve Watch tool shows a 64.3% probability of no hike versus 35.7% for the alternative outcome. The question is whether Warsh gives any indication that a rate hike could come on September 16 or takes a more dovish position. The S&P 500 remains above its midpoint pivot, keeping the market neutral to bullish as long as it holds above the 75 to 70 level. If stocks continue higher, resistance sits around 78 to 65. If 75 to 70 breaks, the downside becomes more vulnerable.

The bigger concern remains the U.S. 30 Year Treasury Yield (US30Y), U.S. 20 Year Treasury Yield (US20Y), and U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield (US10Y). The 30-year yield is trading around 25-plus-year highs, and the 10-year yield is creeping higher ahead of the speech. The government has been buying longer dated bonds while issuing shorter duration debt in an effort to keep long term yields lower, but those yields remain an important source of pressure.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is still forming a bear flag. It can continue higher temporarily, but the pattern remains bearish as long as that structure holds. A weaker dollar can help manufacturing, but it can also import inflation, which keeps the relationship between the dollar, Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policy especially important.

Technology is still being driven by artificial intelligence. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) delivered strong earnings and had a strong session, but the broader market response was relatively modest. NVIDIA is being valued around $5 trillion while generating roughly $400 billion in revenue this year, with guidance pointing toward 70% revenue growth next year. That has created an extremely high bar for the rest of the semiconductor industry.

Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) beat earnings and revenue expectations but is still dropping sharply. The stock had already rallied into resistance created by multiple pivot points and the 618 Fibonacci retracement. The first area I would watch is $215.75, where there is a gap fill, followed by $211 and change. A secondary gap fill sits lower near an ascending trend line and becomes more important if the current support fails.

PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is falling sharply after Stripe and Advent withdrew from a proposed transaction valued at roughly $50 billion. The stock had rallied on the buyout news, so that premium is now coming back out. The level I would watch is $47.45, where a pivot point and gap fill come together.

Gap Inc. (GAP) reported good earnings, although part of the result was tied to a tariff refund. The important resistance is around $25, where an ascending trend line and gap fill meet. That level was already tested during premarket trading, which may weaken it. If the gap pushes through $25, the next major resistance could be around $27.50.

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is rallying strongly after earnings. The numbers are good, but because Affirm operates in buy now, pay later, the strength also raises a broader question about how much consumers are relying on installment financing. Minor resistance sits around $86.60, with a more important area around $92.50.

Gold Futures (GC) are pulling back slightly after recently reaching resistance, and the 10:00 AM speech could determine the next move. Silver Futures (SI) are stronger, pushing into resistance after forming a bull flag. Silver could reach $71.50 or possibly $72, and after lagging gold’s steeper advance, it may be trying to catch up.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CL) are slightly lower as the market considers reports that the United States may seek stakes in Venezuela’s oil industry. If that eventually leads to more Venezuelan production, additional supply could pressure oil prices lower, although there is still significant uncertainty around whether anything develops. Natural Gas Futures (NG) remain bullish as long as price holds above 283 after the recent move into minor resistance.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to move lower and is once again testing roughly $80,000 to $81,000. That area has been hit repeatedly, making it especially important now that Bitcoin is also approaching a major macro catalyst. A more dovish interpretation of Warsh’s comments could support Bitcoin, stocks, gold, and silver, while a more hawkish interpretation could bring those markets lower together.

This is a market where several major assets are reacting to the same force at the same time. With Treasury yields elevated, Bitcoin testing support, silver pushing resistance, and stocks sitting near important technical levels, I would rather wait for price to confirm the move than try to predict what happens before 10:00 AM.