Stocks Refuse to Break as Bond Yields Keep Climbing

Stocks are holding up better than expected even as the U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield pushes above 5.25%, and that tension is controlling almost everything I am watching right now. Equities are still defending important technical levels, while gold and silver are showing much more damage from the move in rates.

In One Minute

The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield reached 5.274%, with resistance at 5.289%, yet the broader stock market has not responded with the kind of aggressive selling we might normally expect. The S&P 500 is consolidating, the Nasdaq is still holding its breakout, semiconductors remain constructive, and Bitcoin is holding around the $83,000 area.

The biggest pressure is showing up in precious metals. Gold fell 3.87%, silver dropped 5.56%, and both charts have weakened technically.

The main thing I am watching now is whether the 10-year yield can finally consolidate or pull back between 5.021% and 5.289%. If it does, that could give stocks room to push higher. If yields keep climbing, the pressure increases.

The Setup

The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is the main macro driver. It pushed to 5.274%, just below resistance at 5.289%, a level tied to the June 2007 pivot.

The move is becoming stretched. RSI is at 69.07 on the monthly chart, 78.61 on the weekly chart, and 73.6 on the daily chart. That does not mean yields have to reverse immediately, but it does tell me the move is extended enough that consolidation would make sense.

The important range is 5.021% to 5.289%. If yields begin chopping sideways or pulling back inside that area, stocks could get some breathing room.

We also have jobs and inflation data coming later in the week, so the macro side of this market is not finished yet.

What Changed

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 0.74% and closed back below the declining trend line it had been fighting around for roughly a week. The level it needs to reclaim is $767.99. Near-term support is $760.36, which also lines up with the previous June all-time high area.

I still view the current S&P structure as relatively constructive considering what Treasury yields are doing and the unresolved situation in the Middle East.

The Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) looks stronger. It is still holding its breakout, with near-term support at 26,691. Bulls now need price to move away from that support rather than keep testing it. Every additional test can weaken the level. If yields ease and the Nasdaq continues higher, the larger resistance area is around 28,000 points.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is also holding together well despite a roughly 1% decline. It has already broken above a declining trend line, moved above its inclining parallel channel, and reclaimed the 50-day moving average. The 20-day moving average is also beginning to move above the 50-day moving average.

The immediate resistance on SMH is $607.58, which lines up with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. A clean break above that level opens the door toward $635.54.

Gold (XAU) is where rising yields are doing more obvious damage. Gold dropped 3.87% and broke below the inclining parallel channel that had supported price since the April 2025 lows.

Near-term support is $4,104. Gold could bounce from there and retest the broken trend line, but that would not automatically repair the chart. If weakness continues, the next major downside area is $3,946, below the $4,000 level.

Silver (XAG) was hit even harder, falling 5.56%. It traded around $61.03 during the session and has now fallen back into a previous consolidation area.

Near-term support is $58.82. The larger downside destination remains $52. I can see bounces along the way, but below $55 silver begins moving into a much more interesting area for a possible buying opportunity.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil remains above the declining trend line that forms the neckline of its inverse head and shoulders pattern. Price has been moving sideways for roughly three sessions, but the larger measured move remains approximately $116, with the specific target at $116.19 as long as that neckline continues to hold.

Natural Gas (NG) had a strong breakout attempt, but it never produced the follow-through needed for confirmation. Price pushed above the declining trend line from the March 9 pivot, then failed to establish itself around $3.45.

The immediate level to beat is $3.23. A pullback toward $3.08 would be the stronger support area for another attempt higher. If momentum returns, the upside target remains $3.60.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closed up 1.68% after announcing a $150 billion stock buyback program. The initial reaction was positive, but NVIDIA is still fighting an inclining trend line that has repeatedly stopped rallies.

The encouraging part is the sequence of higher lows. Immediate resistance is $234.70, followed by the top of the parallel channel at $239.68. That puts the $240 area directly in focus if the higher low structure continues.

MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) dropped 18.46% following a leadership change ahead of Investor Day. The stock fell toward $300 after losing roughly $100.

The first thing bulls need is a recovery above $339.57. That would put approximately $355 back in play. Failure to recover the inclining trend line keeps MongoDB vulnerable to a larger breakdown.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) closed beneath its recent inclining trend line. One candle does not confirm the breakdown, so the next session matters.

A recovery above $369.42 would repair the near-term trend. If that does not happen, the next support level is $342.11. If Tesla holds there and begins curling higher, an inverse head and shoulders pattern could start developing.

The problem is that Tesla still has significant resistance ahead, including approximately $385 and another trend line near $410.

SpaceX also closed beneath its near-term inclining trend line. The first recovery level is $149.91. Getting back above that area, or stabilizing within the current candle, would help preserve the trend.

There is also potential selling pressure from additional share releases. About 328 million shares were recently released, bringing the total amount of available pre IPO shares to 2.58 billion. Another roughly 328 million shares are scheduled around October 9 and October 24, followed by another 1.3 billion from late October into early November.

Another approximately 797 million shares are associated with December 8, with that figure potentially increasing to 1.2 billion under the stated condition involving the $135 IPO level.

If that selling pressure pushes SpaceX lower, $131.48 is the more aggressive support area and $125.19 is the deeper level I am watching.

If price eventually stabilizes there, the developing chart could form the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. If that pattern completes, the measured move reaches approximately $212.

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) has recovered after breaking below an inclining trend line, but the larger chart resembles an M pattern.

The important resistance area is $283.76. That level lines up with the 50% area of the parallel channel and the center pivot of the larger M structure. Price can continue recovering toward that area, but that is where I would expect the move to start meeting heavier resistance.

The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) is moving in the opposite direction and is now attempting a breakout above a declining trend line after several failed attempts.

Confirmation would come from another close above the current high. Near-term resistance is $153.06, with approximately $157 as the medium-term target near the top of the declining parallel channel.

Digital Assets and Crypto

Bitcoin (BTC) remains relatively quiet compared with what is happening in bonds and precious metals.

Bitcoin is consolidating around the $83,000 area after its recent move higher. The current structure has the appearance of a small near-term bear flag, but the level that matters most to me is $80,524.

Bitcoin can wick through nearby pivots without automatically destroying the larger structure. What matters is whether price can continue holding around $80,524.

Above that level, the near-term structure remains constructive. A sustained break below $80,524 would shift the short-term picture more bearish.

Why It Matters

The interesting part of this market is not simply that Treasury yields are high. It is that stocks are still holding relatively well despite those yields.

That tells me the next move in rates could have an outsized impact. If the 10-year yield finally pauses or pulls back, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, semiconductors, NVIDIA, and other growth names already sitting near technical breakout areas could get the room they need to move higher.

At the same time, gold and silver are showing us the other side of the equation. They are absorbing much more immediate pressure from the move in yields.

Bitcoin is somewhere in between. It is not breaking out aggressively, but it is also not showing the same technical damage we are seeing in metals.

Key Levels

The most important level in the entire table is still the 10-year yield near 5.289%. What happens there can influence almost every other setup on the board.

Bull Case

The bullish path starts with Treasury yields calming down.

If the 10-year yield begins consolidating between 5.021% and 5.289% or pulls back, the S&P could reclaim $767.99, the Nasdaq could continue holding above 26,691 and work toward 28,000, and SMH could finally clear $607.58 and target $635.54.

NVIDIA would then have a better chance of clearing $234.70 and $239.68. Tesla needs to recover $369.42. MongoDB needs to recover $339.57. Procter & Gamble needs to confirm its breakout with another strong close above the current high.

Natural gas becomes more attractive if $3.08 holds and price retakes $3.23, keeping $3.60 in play. Bitcoin remains constructive as long as $80,524 holds.

SpaceX could eventually create a much larger opportunity if selling pressure pushes price into $131.48 or $125.19, support forms, and the potential inverse head and shoulders structure begins developing toward $212.

Bear Case

The bearish case begins with yields refusing to cool. A sustained push through 5.289% would keep pressure on risk assets and could make current equity consolidations harder to maintain. SPY becomes more vulnerable below $760.36. Repeated Nasdaq tests of 26,691 increase the risk that support eventually breaks.

Gold has already lost its channel. If $4,104 cannot hold, $3,946 becomes the next important downside area. Silver remains vulnerable toward $52, even if temporary bounces occur along the way.

Tesla risks moving toward $342.11 if it cannot recover $369.42. MongoDB remains exposed if it stays below $339.57. SpaceX could face additional pressure from upcoming share releases, bringing $131.48 and $125.19 into focus. Bitcoin would also weaken meaningfully if the price loses $80,524 on a sustained basis.

What to Watch Next

The first thing I am watching is the U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield around 5.289%. After that, jobs and inflation data later in the week become important because they could influence the next move in yields.

For equities, watch SPY at $760.36 and $767.99, Nasdaq at 26,691, SMH at $607.58, NVIDIA at $234.70 and $239.68, Tesla at $369.42, and MongoDB at $339.57.

For metals, gold at $4,104 and silver at $58.82 are the immediate support levels. For crypto, Bitcoin at $80,524 is the line I do not want to lose if the current bullish structure is going to remain intact.

Bottom Line

The 10-year yield is still the market's pressure point, but stocks have not broken under that pressure yet. The Nasdaq remains above support, semiconductors are consolidating constructively, NVIDIA is making higher lows, and Bitcoin is holding around $83,000, while gold and silver are showing much clearer technical weakness.

Everything now comes back to whether the 10-year yield can stabilize around the 5.021% to 5.289% area. If it does, several equity setups are already positioned to benefit. If it does not, support levels across stocks, metals, and crypto become much more important.

Patience matters here: let the market reach the levels, then let price confirm the next move.