Stocks Rebound on Light Volume as Semiconductors Test a Breakout

The broader market moved higher, but I would not treat this as a confirmed breakout yet. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) had closed below its wedge for two sessions before reversing higher on the final day of that pattern. Price moved from the $742 area overnight to nearly $750, but volume was only around 29 million shares. That is not strong participation, so part of this move may have come from short covering rather than aggressive buying.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) also recovered well, reclaiming $704.32 after testing it earlier in the session. One close back inside the range is constructive, but it is not confirmation. The next resistance is $717.74, where the gap fill and a declining trend line come together.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is the chart I am watching most closely. It opened above the neckline of its head and shoulders pattern, which may have forced short sellers to exit. The problem is that volume was only 6.92 million shares, compared with 6.96 million in the previous session. The stronger support candle carried 22 million shares near $541, where SMH retested the top of its long rising channel from the April 2025 Liberation Day lows. That support is meaningful, but the move above the neckline still needs another strong close. A move back below it would keep the bearish pattern intact.

The United States 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y) rose to 4.63% and tested the July 14 high. Another move higher would put 4.687% back in play. Rising yields and rising oil prices would normally pressure equities, so the fact that stocks held up makes the next session even more important.

Gold Futures (GC) gained 1.84%, but the chart remains below major resistance. Gold needs to clear $4,082, followed by $4,098, $4,149, and $4,178 before the structure becomes more constructive.

Silver Futures (SI) are showing better strength. Silver broke above its declining trend line and needs a close above $58.39. Price was near $58.66, and a sustained break could open a move toward $63.27. Even there, silver would still be inside a broader bear flag. A return closer to $50 would offer a more attractive physical buying level.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CL) continued higher as conflict in the Middle East intensified. Resistance sits at $85.75, followed by $88.34. Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG) remain in bearish sideways consolidation, with $2.90 as the level buyers need to break.

Western Digital Corporation (WDC), Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), and SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) all moved above the necklines of their head and shoulders patterns. Western Digital now faces resistance near $620. Micron needs to regain its rising channel near $1,018. SanDisk closed above $1,515, with resistance near $1,600 and then $1,792. These moves may still be driven partly by short covering, so I want to see another close above the latest candles before treating the patterns as fully negated.

Teradyne, Inc. (TER) is retesting a prior breakdown. The key level is $383.67. Daily closes above that trend line would improve the outlook, while the current structure still favors resistance. Teradyne reports earnings on July 28.

Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) surged after NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) committed a $2 billion investment. Price cleared $197.09, the gap near $200, and a declining trend line before reaching approximately $220 after hours. The next resistance is $232.09.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) bounced again from its rising trend line ahead of earnings. Resistance is $407, while support remains between $354 and $355.

Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.73% for its second consecutive higher session. The first level to beat is $67,264. A break above that could open a move toward $70,700, followed by the heavier resistance zone between $72,000 and $73,000. Near-term support is now $64,297.

The market is improving, but light volume, rising yields, higher oil, and major earnings still argue for patience. The right approach is to respect the levels, wait for follow-through, and let price confirm the move before committing.