Stocks Hold Near Highs as Bond Yields Rise and Gold and Bitcoin Stay Bullish

The market is still holding together remarkably well, but the bond market is becoming harder to ignore. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) opened fractionally higher, stayed neutral to positive early, then faded into lunch and moved sideways for the rest of the session. Even with weaker retail sales, recent weakness in jobs data, higher oil prices, and rising Treasury yields, the S&P 500 finished down just 0.17% and remains near its all-time highs.

That resilience keeps me constructive in the near term. I still see the possibility of the S&P 500 reaching roughly 8,100 to 8,200 over the next few months.

The concern is what is happening with interest rates. Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase in September have largely disappeared, yet longer-term yields continue moving higher. The United States 10 Year Treasury yield (TNX) moved back toward 4.7%, while the United States 30 Year Treasury yield reached levels not seen since 2007.

Normally, if the market is pricing out another Federal Reserve rate increase, we would expect some relief in yields. Instead, yields are rising anyway. That tells us the bond market is increasingly moving independently of what the Federal Reserve is expected to do.

This is not an immediate crisis signal, and I am still bullish on stocks in the shorter term, potentially through the November elections and possibly through year-end. But it is something I would keep on the radar heading toward 2027.

United States debt was cited at $40 trillion, compared with roughly $17 trillion around 2007. Annual government interest expense was also cited near $1 trillion. So when long-term rates rise today, the financial burden is much larger than it was during the previous period when yields were at similar levels.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is adding another warning. The dollar broke an important trend line while Treasury yields were rising. Normally, higher yields can support the dollar. Seeing yields rise while the dollar falls is worth watching because those two markets are not behaving the way we would normally expect.

The important point is that none of this has broken the stock market yet. The S&P 500 is still sitting near record levels despite all of these pressures.

If the index eventually reaches roughly 8,200, that becomes a much more important area. When the S&P 500 is compared with M2 money supply, that level lines up with a major parallel structure connecting the 1982 low, the 2009 financial crisis low, and the dot com era high. That is where I would become much more cautious about the possibility of a major market top.

Moving into metals, Gold Spot Price (XAU) has already broken out of its wedge, but the move has stalled. Right now, I would rather let the next pattern develop than force a view. Gold could be building a bull flag for another move higher. If it pulls back, technical support sits around $4,100. If that level breaks, the next lower support area becomes important. Longer term, the target remains $13,000 between 2029 and 2031.

Silver Spot Price (XAG) reached resistance this week and could pull back toward its rising trend line. That trend line becomes the technical support area to watch.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) gained 1.44% and continues to trade around $82. That keeps some inflation pressure even as weaker economic data reduces the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September.

Natural Gas Futures (NG) remain below the key $2.83 breakout level. Until it clears $2.83, the path of least resistance remains toward roughly $2.58 to $2.57.

In technology, Apple Inc. (AAPL) is forming a bear flag after its recent decline. If that pattern breaks lower, the first downside target is around $294, followed by $275.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) rallied after earnings but stalled after filling a gap and reaching a Fibonacci level. I am watching for a pullback toward the previous pivot high, and another gap fill. If it reaches that area, that is where the setup becomes more interesting. Meta Platforms Inc. (META) remains in sideways consolidation and could be developing a bullish pattern, but it still needs more time.

Micron Technology Inc. (MU) continues to rebound after falling roughly 40% from its previous high. The first resistance area is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. A gap fill above that becomes the second area, followed by the previous double top and pivot high as the third.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) closed around an important previous high. If it can establish itself above that level, the next likely target is the gap near $374. If it cannot hold above resistance, I would watch for another move down toward the lower trend line that has already produced several rebounds.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) is approaching support after repeatedly rejecting the upper boundary of its parallel structure. If the first support breaks, another lower support area comes into play. The more important level for me is the gap fill near $235.

Bitcoin (BTC) is still struggling with negative regulatory headlines, but the technical structure remains intact. As long as Bitcoin holds above its breakout trend line, I remain near-term bullish. If it breaks back below that line, the breakout has failed and the probability changes.

XRP (XRP) also comes back to price discipline. The technical area I am watching is roughly $0.97 to $1.00.

Across all of these markets, I would rather wait for price to reach the levels that matter than chase a move. The S&P 500 remains constructive, gold and Bitcoin still have bullish structures, and individual stocks are giving us specific areas to watch. Patience matters here because the opportunity is not simply being in the market; it is being there at the right price.