Stocks Confirm Breakouts as Semiconductors Strengthen and Bitcoin Struggles to Hold Support

Thursday gave us a meaningful change in market behavior. Producer Price Index data came in largely in line, with some parts slightly cooler than expected. That followed a jobs report last week that was well below expectations and negative, while Consumer Price Index data this week came in in line. That combination was enough to support the rally and help several major charts move closer to confirmed breakouts.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX), through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), finally confirmed its breakout above the previous all-time highs. It took seven daily candles after the original breakout candle to get that confirmation. That now puts the previous all-time high near $760 into a potential support role if we pull back. From there, price could make another attempt at the rising trend line overhead.

The intraday action also improved. Over the previous several sessions, we kept seeing the same pattern: gap up, sell off. Thursday changed that. We gapped higher, buyers stepped in, and when price later pulled back, it found support almost directly on a rising trend line that goes back to February 2025.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) also closed above a declining trend line, so this is now on breakout watch. One candle is not enough. I want to see follow-through over the next couple of sessions and eventually see that former resistance hold as support. If that happens, the next test is $748.65.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is very close to its own confirmation. The important levels are the declining trend line and the 50-day simple moving average near $592.49. A daily close above both would strengthen the bullish case considerably. If QQQ and SMH both confirm, that supports continued strength through the final two weeks of August and into September.

The United States 10 Year Treasury yield (TNX) eased slightly to 4.649%, but it is still sitting near resistance and remains inside the same broader range. Continued consolidation here would still lean bullish for yields, but there is no breakout yet.

In commodities, Gold Spot Price (XAU) initially moved higher but finished back in consolidation. That is not necessarily a problem after the recent push. The next resistance level remains $45.75. Silver Spot Price (XAG) is also consolidating constructively, but those repeated upper wicks matter. Sellers keep showing up above $66.30. If silver can continue consolidating and eventually break through that pressure, the next resistance is $67.99.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) is still pressing against a declining trend line. Price recently reached $83.30 after coming close to the trend line around $83.47. Near-term support is $78.48, while the stated breakout resistance is $83.13. A drop toward $78.20 or $74.38 would weaken the immediate breakout setup.

Natural Gas Futures (NG) retested the $2.75 support area and was later cited at $2.70. Bulls would like to see price regain the upper portion of the range near $2.83.

Now into technology. Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) gained 6.22% and has now advanced more than 100% from the April low. The upper boundary of the rising channel sits near $352. That is an important area because a push straight into that level could trigger profit-taking and a 10% to 20% pullback toward the August 7 pivot highs. NET is already overbought on both the daily and weekly charts.

Workday, Inc. (WDAY) surged 17% after reported news that Silver Lake was in talks regarding a potential buyout. That move also lifted Atlassian Corporation (TEAM), ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW), and Adobe Inc. (ADBE). Atlassian ran into resistance near $225 and then pulled back toward $206. If it can clear $225, the next stated target is $235.97, roughly $236.

Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) moved lower after earnings and reached about $501 after hours, briefly testing the psychological $500 level. The more important technical area sits near $464.80 at the lower boundary of its parallel channel.

SpaceX (SPCX) recently pushed to $149.60 against resistance near $149.34 and then reversed. The last four sessions have remained above $133. Continued consolidation there could support another attempt higher, with $172 as the next upside level if resistance breaks. The $135 area also matters because some pre IPO investors entered at $135 and below, including prices as low as $7 and $15.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is near the top of a rising parallel channel and is also overbought. The first support is $337.14. If that fails, the next area is near $322.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains the weakest major setup here. Price is trying to avoid a breakdown below a rising trend line that also connects with the entry into a parallel channel and the neckline of a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. Bulls need Bitcoin to reclaim that neckline quickly and break above it. If that happens, the stated upside objective is $72,000 to $74,000.

For now, equities are improving, semiconductors are close to confirming, metals are consolidating under resistance, oil is pressing on a breakout level, and Bitcoin is still fighting to hold its structure. The key is patience: let the breakouts confirm, let support prove itself, and do not chase price before the market gives you the evidence.