Semiconductors and Bitcoin Rally as S&P 500 Support Holds

The market is trying to stabilize after yesterday’s slow and steady decline. E mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) moved slightly higher overnight, pointing to a positive open. More importantly, the daily structure of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is still bullish. The index remains above the ascending trend line connecting the 2021 and 2025 highs. Price broke above that line, retested it twice, and continues to hold. As long as that remains the case, this still looks like bullish consolidation. A break below the trend line would turn it into a failed breakout and increase the risk of a much larger correction.

The United States 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) is holding slightly above 4.6%. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged next week, so the real focus will be on what officials signal for the following meeting. There is some discussion about a possible rate increase later this year, but that will depend on how inflation and the economy perform over the coming weeks and months.

The most important rotation right now is happening between semiconductors, Apple, and software. Semiconductor stocks are attempting another rebound after weak closes on Friday and Monday. Morgan Stanley is now arguing that semiconductor prices are low relative to where they should be, which may help make this recovery more sustainable.

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) has bounced above $900 after reaching the upper end of support. The cycle top may already be in, but a recovery toward $1,000 is still possible. Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) fell more than 40% into a previous pivot and gap fill, then rebounded toward $206. Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) is also recovering near $1,500.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is moving in the opposite direction. The stock reached a major trend line dating back to 2024, where support has now become resistance. The short setup developed near $330 to $335, and Apple is pulling back as semiconductor stocks recover.

Software is also weakening. Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) and ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW) are lower in early trading. The recent pattern has been clear: when semiconductors rise, software tends to weaken, and when semiconductors pull back, software usually benefits.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) report after the closing bell tomorrow. Intel Corporation (INTC) reports on Thursday, and that result could be especially important for the semiconductor trade.

General Motors Company (GM) reported revenue of about $1.5 billion, above expectations, and earnings of approximately $0.20, better than expected. The stock is only flat to slightly positive because the improvement appears to be coming from lower costs rather than stronger vehicle sales. If rising oil prices push costs higher again, that could weaken the main reason earnings improved.

3M Company (MMM) is trading near resistance around $170. A stronger push toward $177.50 could create a quick pullback setup, but there is not enough confirmation for a swing trade. Danaher Corporation (DHR) is down about 15%. The main rebound zone sits between the gap fill near $164 and support around $161. A move below $159 could become more interesting for a swing trade, but the setup would need to be reevaluated at that point.

Citigroup Inc. (C) has broken below support. A rebound back toward that former support line could create a short setup.

Gold Spot Price (XAUUSD) is approaching a major decision inside a narrowing wedge. By August 15, the price will likely have to break above or below the pattern. A breakout would target about $4,375. A breakdown would expose minor support near $3,900, followed by $3,500. Silver Spot Price (XAGUSD) needs to clear resistance between $64 and $67 to build stronger momentum. Major support remains near $54 per ounce.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CL) remain below the $87 per barrel area, where the risk versus reward for a possible short becomes more attractive. Natural Gas Futures (NG) are still holding trend line support, but the developing bear flag has reduced the probability to roughly 50% versus 50%.

The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) may be setting up for a short-term bounce near a previous pivot low. Cameco Corporation (CCJ) is sitting within a broader support zone after filling a gap. Oklo Inc. (OKLO) touched $40 near a gap fill and the 0.886 Fibonacci retracement and is now attracting some buying interest.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $66,500 after breaking above both an inverse head and shoulders pattern and a cup and handle pattern. The measured upside target is $71,000 to $72,000, which also aligns with an existing trend line. A move beyond that range would suggest that stronger momentum and speculative demand are taking control.

The Bottom Line: The strongest near-term setups are the semiconductor rebound, Bitcoin’s breakout, and gold’s approaching break. The main risk is still a failure of S&P support. Patience and price discipline matter more than chasing momentum after the move has started.