Semiconductor Selloff Deepens as S&P Support Weakens and Micron, SpaceX Near Key Levels

The market ended a rough week under pressure, and technology, especially semiconductors, took the hardest hit. Many chip stocks are now down more than 30%, while some have fallen between 45% and 50%.

That kind of damage can create strong bounces, but I want to be clear: a bounce does not mean these stocks will return to all-time highs. The larger semiconductor cycle still looks broken, even if some names are approaching levels where buyers could step in temporarily.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) opened sharply lower, rallied hard, and then repeatedly failed to break above its morning high. Once buyers could not push through that resistance, sellers regained control, and the index finished down about 1%.

The S&P 500 held up better than the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) because it is spread across 500 companies and multiple industries. The Nasdaq has a significantly heavier exposure to technology and semiconductors, which have been under pressure all week.

The S&P is also testing an important trend line. It has already held this area twice. The first test of a major trend line may carry only a 10% to 20% chance of breaking. A second test may raise that risk to between 30% and 40%. By the third test, the odds can move closer to 50 against 50. Every repeated hit weakens the level, so another test next week will matter.

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) has fallen more than $1,000 from its high just three weeks ago. It rallied roughly $150 to $200 during the session but gave the move back. The stronger bounce zone sits between $1,285 and $1,200, where previous support lines up with the 50% and Fibonacci 0.618 retracement area.

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is especially important. It bounced from the upper part of its current support zone, but the better setup could come near $750. At that level, the estimated probability of a bounce rises to about 80% because of the gap fill. Micron is already down 33% from its recent high and was down as much as 36% at the session low. A move to $750 would represent roughly a 40% drawdown.

This is also a reminder not to chase analyst excitement. Micron was trading above $1,200 while targets climbed toward $2,000. SanDisk was above $2,000 while targets reached between $3,000 and $3,500. Those aggressive upgrades came after enormous gains, which is often when retail investors become the most vulnerable.

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) bounced from trend line support. Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) also reached major support and finished slightly higher above $188. IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) is sitting near an important pivot, but it could still fall toward a lower gap fill before producing a stronger recovery.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) remains strong, but it is now near major resistance after gaining more than $1 trillion in market value in roughly three weeks. Apple is approaching a $5 trillion valuation, while NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is trying to hold near the same level. NVIDIA needs to hold the $193 to $192 area. If that breaks, the stock could fall toward $165.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) is another example of what happens when excitement gets too far ahead of price. The stock has fallen to around $123 and change, below what some insiders paid. It will likely have major bounces, but the larger direction still points toward $100. That is the level where the risk and reward become more attractive.

Outside technology, silver futures (SI) bounced from $54 support. Crude oil futures (CL) could reach $87 per barrel if tensions involving Iran escalate. Natural gas futures (NG) continue holding trend line support and could recover toward $3 to $3.10.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke support but recovered to around $64,000. Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500, Nasdaq, gold, and silver. Two weeks is not enough to confirm a lasting change, but the relative strength is worth watching.

The Bottom Line: Several damaged stocks are approaching bounce levels, but the broader market risk has not disappeared. Next week, the S&P trend line, Micron near $750, NVIDIA near $193 to $192, and SpaceX near $100 will be the key areas to watch.