S&P Eyes 8,200 as Oil, Yields, and Bitcoin Test Key Levels

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is still showing strength after breaking above its descending trend line last week. Since that breakout, price has mostly moved sideways, and even with some weakness this morning, the larger structure has not changed. This could still be the beginning of another bullish move.

The upside area I’m watching is 8,100 to 8,200. Getting to 8,200 would be roughly another 6% higher, and that is where several technical levels begin lining up as major resistance. Two separate parallel structures are pointing toward that same general area, which makes the zone more important.

There is also an interesting relationship between the S&P 500 and the U.S. M2 Money Supply (M2). Relative to the amount of money in the financial system, the market has already pushed beyond the valuation level associated with the dot-com peak. With the AI buildout and significantly more individual investors participating in markets, valuations may stretch even further. Another 6% move in the S&P would put both the price chart and the S&P relative to M2 near major upper resistance.

That does not mean the risks have disappeared. The market is reaching levels where a much larger decline becomes possible, but markets can also produce one final strong move higher before that happens. Strong earnings are helping, and this week’s Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index data could add another push if inflation comes in better.

I’m also watching the U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate (USD/JPY). After the recent intervention involving the United States and the Bank of Japan, the pair broke major technical support and is now retracing. Around 160 is the important level. Normally, I would expect rejection there. If USD/JPY breaks back above 160 and starts moving toward its previous high, that becomes a much bigger signal because it would effectively erase the impact of that intervention.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is still holding support around 99.50 and is slightly higher. At the same time, the 30 Year U.S. Treasury Yield (TYX) remains a concern. It has barely backed away from its highs, even though the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has fallen below 50%. The United States has been adding roughly $2 trillion a year in debt, and if that continues unchecked, the concern is whether that eventually becomes $5 trillion, $6 trillion, or $7 trillion a year. Investors buying 30 year debt have to decide whether roughly 5% is enough compensation for that long term risk.

The labor market matters here, too. Friday’s jobs report came in weaker than expected, and previous months were revised substantially lower. If that weakness continues, it could affect both economic expectations and commodity demand.

Crude Oil Futures (CL) have pushed from below $78 to around $80 per barrel after no agreement was reached between Iran and the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As oil moved higher, S&P futures softened, so that inverse relationship is still showing up.

Oil itself remains compressed inside a tightening wedge. I would rather wait for the price to break that structure than guess which way it goes. A downside break remains possible. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens while the economy and labor market weaken, oil could face pressure from both sides. Under that scenario, crude could eventually reach $50 per barrel, although that move is not expected until 2027. Natural Gas Futures (NG) are up almost 4%, but the larger structure has not changed much. Natural gas is still sitting in its lower range and has not reached technical support.

Gold Futures (GC) are roughly flat after running into resistance. The resistance area remains between $43.75 and $85. Silver Futures (SI) are slightly higher, and $64 is the level that matters. A confirmed break above $64 would shift the chart from a negative bias toward a more positive structure. Silver is currently at $63.99, so it is sitting right at that decision point. I still want to see a close above $64 and confirmation before treating it as a real breakout.

In technology, Intel Corporation (INTC) is lower after announcing a $15 billion stock offering. The offering is dilutive, and the main downside level I’m watching is $91.05, with $91 also standing out as a potential day trade area if the stock falls sharply enough to reach it.

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) is also showing some weakness with the semiconductor group. Its major daily trend line goes back to December 2025, and $1,050 is the key level. A break below $1,050 would represent a significant breakdown in the current chart structure.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B) is slightly higher after strong earnings. What stands out is that its cash balance has finally started moving lower after rising for an extended period, suggesting some capital is beginning to be deployed under the company’s new leadership.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to struggle around $65K, but it has broken above an important descending trend line. From here, Bitcoin could accelerate higher immediately, or it could pull back and retest that former resistance before making another move. Either path keeps the larger setup constructive as long as Bitcoin remains above that descending trend line.

The Clarity Act has been delayed again, and Congress is now in recess, but the chart remains the bigger signal for now. Across these markets, the opportunity is still there, but this is a time to respect the levels, stay patient, and let price confirm the next move.