S&P 500 Extends Recovery as Oil Near $103 Threatens Further Gains

Stocks are moving higher this morning as signs of a possible deal with Iran ease oil prices and lift S&P futures. The tension is straightforward: earnings are helping confidence, but expensive oil continues to pressure consumers and limit the market’s recovery. The S&P 500 still has a constructive pattern pointing toward 8,050, while tomorrow’s Fed decision and Thursday morning’s inflation data are the next major policy catalysts.

In One Minute

The stock market is trying to build on yesterday’s bounce, helped by early relief in oil and a strong earnings reaction from Celestica. Oil remains the immediate driver, with a return toward $103 or $104 threatening that recovery. The S&P 500’s bullish pattern still points slightly above 8,000, toward 8,050, while Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim $81,000 leaves its setup weaker. Watch energy prices first, then the Fed’s guidance tomorrow.

The Context

Durable goods orders increased 1.8% month over month, below the 2% forecast. Core orders came in at 0.5%, versus expectations of 0.6%, improving from the previous month but still missing forecasts. These numbers were not a major market mover, and it is too early to know whether they will keep the Fed from raising rates later this year.

The probability of unchanged rates tomorrow is just under 100%, so the decision itself is unlikely to be the main surprise. What matters more is the Fed’s message about inflation, the next meeting, and where policy goes from here. Thursday morning’s PCE inflation data follows that decision, keeping attention on the relationship between prices and interest rates.

Key Developments

S&P futures (ES) rose on the Iran headlines, then started fading slightly ahead of the open on the 10-minute chart. They are trading near yesterday’s high, making that the immediate reference point. As oil edges back up, futures are easing, showing how closely those markets are moving against each other.

The S&P 500 bounced from technical support yesterday and is setting up for another higher open. Its daily chart still resembles a long bull flag, with a strong advance followed by sideways consolidation. That keeps me leaning toward a move slightly above 8,000, with a target around 8,050. The question is whether oil allows that pattern to develop or rises enough to push stocks lower.

The Nasdaq Composite also bounced from key support and is looking to open higher. Celestica’s earnings reaction is helping confidence across technology and chip stocks. That gives the recovery support from earnings, although oil remains the broader market’s immediate pressure point.

Oil traded just below $103 a barrel before the Iran headlines brought it down to about $100.5, followed by a recovery to just above $101. It moved from a fractional decline toward a fractional gain as the morning progressed. The reaction is limited because repeated talk of a deal has left traders waiting for something firm in writing. Until that happens, the headlines may restrain further gains without producing a substantial decline.

Gold is getting another small bounce after reaching support, but the next pattern is still developing. This could become a bear flag, where a rebound pauses before another decline, or a V-shaped recovery with a sharper move higher. It is too early to choose between them, so I am waiting for the chart to give me a clearer direction.

Silver is trading around $53.70 and has made lower lows for three consecutive sessions. Lower wicks on the candles suggest some buying as prices fall during the day. That accumulation is worth noticing, but the continuing lower lows remain a concern.

Natural gas is pulling back after yesterday’s upward reversal, and I want to see whether the recent low holds if prices return there. The decline has been substantial, but winter seasonality could start receiving more attention over the next month. Another potential driver is the growing discussion around data centers producing their own electricity with natural gas. If that narrative gains traction, it could become a bullish catalyst.

Celestica (CLS) broke above a descending trend line connecting three previous highs, then returned to test that line heading into yesterday’s earnings. That retest put former resistance in position to act as support. The earnings response was strong, and even after a noticeable premarket retreat on the 10-minute chart, the stock remains up about 9.5%.

SK Hynix (SKHY) is trading higher near $147 before the open. Celestica’s results are helping confidence in other chip stocks, and SK Hynix is participating in that improvement. Its own earnings are scheduled after the close today.

Corning (GLW) is essentially unchanged after earnings, despite an initial rally, decline, rebound, and another pullback before creeping higher again. Those swings have produced little net movement from yesterday’s close, leaving limited opportunity for a trade that needs volatility. The daily level I am watching is $96, where a future decline could offer a swing trade buying opportunity.

Whirlpool fell about 6% or 7% yesterday before earnings, then dropped sharply again after the release. That weakness ahead of the announcement raises the question of whether some traders anticipated the disappointing results. It has bounced slightly before the open but remains under pressure near $24.50. The important technical reference is its 2009 financial crisis low, which creates a potential double bottom if buyers defend that area.

The comparison here is Nike (NKE), another established brand that had been under pressure before gapping lower on earnings. Nike then rose almost every day for roughly two weeks, suggesting investors treated the release as the worst point in its outlook. Whirlpool could see a similar response, but I do not have confirmation of that yet. The question is whether buyers step in near the old low or the decline continues.

UPS initially moved higher after earnings, then slipped back toward $99 after closing near $100 yesterday. That is about a 1% move, which is small for an earnings reaction. For comparison, even Apple’s relatively contained earnings moves can reach 2% or 3%. A decline toward the gap fill around $95.60 or $95.70 would be more interesting for a potential UPS day trade.

Coca-Cola is heading lower despite delivering good earnings. Near its 52-week highs, the stock needed an exceptional report to draw in more buyers, and these results have not cleared that bar. Its recent strength reflects money moving out of the AI trade and into established, dividend-paying names that had previously been beaten down. Now investors appear willing to take profits and look for opportunities elsewhere.

SoFi is showing an earnings move of about 10%, although some of its initial premarket strength is fading. The first reference is a gap fill near $16.50, with another trend line adding significance around $16.60; the 10-minute chart shows the stock missed the first level by a fraction. A previous pivot high around $17.90 is the next reference. There is also a descending trend line through three pivots that would matter if reached, although reaching that higher area today looks unlikely.

HSBC is falling sharply after weak earnings and is becoming extremely oversold as it approaches a former pivot area. I am not ready to buy simply because the decline is stretched. A further move toward $81.60 would bring additional historical pivot points into play and make the setup more interesting.

Rivian is approaching a major support area where two technical factors meet. That overlap gives the area more significance than either factor would have alone. I am watching for a buying response there.

Digital Assets and Crypto

Bitcoin has failed to reclaim $81,000 and is essentially flat while stock futures are higher. That puts it in a warning zone because it is not participating in the improvement in stocks. The sideways action below broken support increasingly resembles a bear flag, which can precede another decline.

Another couple of days moving sideways beneath that level would increase the likelihood of a move lower. The constructive alternative is a recovery above the broken trend line, but that has not happened. Former support is now resistance, and there is relatively little technical support underneath the current trading area.

My bias is slightly negative, rather than fully bearish, because Bitcoin is holding steady rather than falling rapidly. Still, holding below broken support does not repair the chart. Reclaiming the trend line is the condition that would improve this setup.

Why It Matters

Oil is the link between the geopolitical headlines, consumer pressure, and the stock market’s ability to recover. If it stays elevated, stocks face a harder climb; if it comes down meaningfully, the market has more room to move higher. Earnings then determine which individual stocks can attract buyers within that environment.

The chart matters because a bounce by itself does not tell me whether a recovery will last. Gold still needs a clearer formation, Whirlpool is testing a historic reference, and SoFi has several nearby technical levels to work through. I want those structures to establish an advantage before committing, rather than treating every move as an opportunity.

Key Details

Market Outlook: Opportunities and Risks

The clearest broad opportunity remains the S&P 500’s bull flag, with 8,050 as the upside target if the pattern develops. Lower oil would help that move, while Celestica’s earnings response is already supporting technology sentiment. The individual buying setups remain conditional: Corning near $96, UPS near $95.60 or $95.70, and HSBC around $81.60 require prices to reach those areas first. Whirlpool’s potential double bottom and Rivian’s overlapping support also deserve attention without assuming buyers have already taken control.

The main risk is oil returning toward $103 or $104 and putting renewed pressure on stocks and consumers. Silver’s lower lows remain weak, while gold has not ruled out a bear flag. Bitcoin also remains vulnerable beneath broken support, especially if sideways trading continues for another couple of days. These setups call for patience at the stated levels, with attention to whether price actually confirms the opportunity.

What to Watch Next

Tomorrow’s Fed guidance and Thursday morning’s PCE inflation data are the main economic catalysts. After the close today, the earnings calendar includes Robinhood, SK Hynix, Seagate, Visa, and Enphase, with Visa offering insight into consumer activity. Later in the week, Microsoft, Google, KLAC, Chipotle, FedEx, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Amazon, Intel, SanDisk, Roblox, and Starbucks add to a packed schedule. Boeing and FCM were also on this morning’s earnings calendar.

For the immediate session, watch whether oil retreats or pushes back toward $103 or $104. On the charts, the important tests include yesterday’s high in S&P futures, the developing gold formation, and whether natural gas holds its recent low. Bitcoin needs to reclaim its broken trend line, while the individual stock setups depend on their specified gaps, pivots, and support areas.

Bottom Line

The stock market’s constructive setup is still intact, but oil is deciding how much room that recovery has. Earnings are creating individual opportunities, and the Fed’s guidance is the next major policy test. Bitcoin remains weaker beneath $81,000 and broken trend line support. Stay patient and let prices reach the levels that make the trade worthwhile.