Rising Yields, Oil, and Chip Weakness Put Market Support to the Test

Markets started the week under real pressure. Selling in SK Hynix spread through Asian trading and hit memory stocks, semiconductors, and the major indexes. Most of the session was weak, with very little recovery. The next major test is inflation data at 8:30 AM. Gas prices fell last month but are rising again, so investors will be watching whether inflation revives the higher for longer interest rate concern.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, SPY, closed just above its declining trend line, but after-hours selling pushed it back below. If that weakness continues, the next support is $744.10.

The Invesco QQQ Trust, QQQ, fell 1.9% and filled the July 8 gap. The first support is $704.32, the June 5 pivot that has already produced three rebounds. Below that, watch $695.25, which held on June 9, June 10, and June 11. If both levels fail, $674.90 comes into view.

The United States 10-Year Treasury Yield rose to 4.622%, confirming a break above its declining trend line. Support is now around 4.55%, with the next resistance at 4.685%. The longer yields stay elevated, the more pressure that puts on equities.

Commodities are sending a mixed but important message. Gold Futures fell almost 3% and moved below $4,000. Gold needs to recover $4,170 to improve its structure. Support sits at $3,886, with a larger long-term area below $3,500.

Silver Futures remain weak. Support is at $55.09, followed by $49.96. A declining trend line from May 13 through June 17 produced rejections on July 6 and July 10, so silver still has to clear that resistance before the outlook improves.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures surged 9.3%. The next resistance is $81.33, while $75.56 is now near term support. Rising oil matters because it can feed inflation concerns, especially with Treasury yields already climbing.

Natural Gas Futures are testing an important range. The next support is $2.75, but $2.66 is the critical level. A daily close below $2.66 would increase the risk of more downside.

Technology remains the main pressure point. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF, SMH, has now slipped back below its 50-day moving average. The next major support is $552.66, near the rising channel from the April 2025 lows. Depending on the pace of selling, that level could be tested in August.

There are a few brighter spots in software. Intuit Inc., INTU, gained 5.38% and closed above its June 17 candle. The next resistance is $308.78. Above that, resistance sits just below $350, followed by $465, the 50% area of its longer-term channel. If the recovery fails, support is $225.

Salesforce Inc., CRM, also improved. A close above $172.76 would strengthen the move and could turn $166.57 into support. But the larger head and shoulders target remains $97.63 until the price gets above $268.50.

Arm Holdings, ARM, fell 7.55%. It's measured move points to $170.63. To reduce the bearish pressure, ARM needs daily closes above $313.53. Before the larger target, support sits at $281.66 and $257.96.

Marvell Technology, MRVL, is approaching support at $209.30. A rebound could run into resistance at $254.68. If that fails, the next support is $179.54.

Astera Labs, ALAB, has not confirmed a full breakdown yet. If it does, resistance would be near $396.57, with support at $346.07 and then $298.68.

Bitcoin, BTC, also remains in bearish consolidation. The head and shoulders target is $37,508. Bitcoin needs to recover its parallel channel quickly. Otherwise, the current setup leaves room for lower prices into early October before a possible recovery later in the year.

The Bottom Line: Inflation, rising yields, higher oil, and semiconductor weakness are all hitting at the same time. The market has not fully broken down, but several important support levels are now being tested. The next move depends on whether those levels hold and whether inflation gives investors any reason to relax.