Rising Yields and Oil Put Stocks Under Increasing Pressure

Stocks are under pressure, with the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) down 1.27% as Treasury yields and oil continue moving higher. The bigger issue now is whether equities can stabilize while the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) tests major resistance and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CL) pushes higher on escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI came in roughly in line with expectations, while JOLTS job openings were somewhat better than the previous reading. That was not the softer combination markets wanted. The setup now points to roughly a two-to-one chance of a rate hike, while the 10-year yield has reached 4.8%, essentially testing the 4.809% resistance created by the January 2025 highs.

The weekly yield structure is also strengthening. The 20-week moving average is above the 50-week, which is above the 200-week, and those averages are beginning to separate. The first hurdle is still 4.809%. If yields close above it, 5% becomes the next major level. Even without an immediate breakout, yields remaining around the 4.7% range increases the possibility that rates stay elevated between 4.8% and 5%.

That matters for stocks. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has pulled back to its breakout area tied to the June 2 pivot and found support after three sharp sessions lower. SPY still closed above the trend line, and its 50-day moving average remains below price, which could provide additional support. The 20-day moving average is above price and could act as resistance. If the trend line fails, the next important support is around $755.

QQQ looks weaker. It fell 1.27%, broke away from three days of consolidation, and returned to the lower part of its August range. The next major support is $695.25.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is also struggling, down 2.05% and continuing to get rejected by its declining trend line. SMH managed only one daily close above its 50-day moving average before being rejected. The next support is $532.08, while any near-term bounce runs into resistance around $558.02.

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) fell 1.87% and is trying to hold the midpoint of its parallel channel. The key level is $255.71. Another close mainly below that area, especially below the current session low, would trigger the developing bear flag and put $238 into focus.

Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) fell 6.8% during regular trading, but the post-market reaction was much stronger. Shares moved to around $466 and reached as high as $473. The first level to watch is $460, but $468 is more important because it also lines up with the declining trend line. An opening above $468 would create more room for Dell to move higher.

Now look at commodities because this is where the relationship with yields becomes especially important. Gold Futures (GC) have fallen sharply for three days and are entering support at $4,333, with the bottom of the parallel channel around $4,278. Additional support extends toward approximately $4,214.

If yields keep rising after a temporary pause, gold could remain under pressure. The deeper declining trend line sits around $3,500, although there is no certainty the price gets there. Below $4,000 is where the setup becomes increasingly interesting.

Silver Futures (SI) are under similar pressure. The next major support is $63.26, with the 50-day moving average sitting just underneath that area.

Oil is doing the opposite. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures surged 5.2% as Middle East tensions increased. The immediate resistance zone is roughly $91 to $94. If oil clears that area, the next stated target is $96.44. The moving averages are also beginning to separate in a bullish structure, so the near-term chart remains strong.

Natural Gas Futures (NG) are also improving after confirming a breakout above $2.90. The next level is approximately $3.10, followed by the declining trend line near $3.25. The last four daily sessions have closed above the 50 day moving average, and additional closes around $2.99 to $3.00 would help build momentum.

Bitcoin (BTC) is relatively quiet compared with everything else, down 1.57%, but the setup is worth watching closely. The large red candle from August 28 created bearish consolidation inside a larger bullish consolidation, leaving room for Bitcoin to move below $76,000.

The next important support area is around $72,000, specifically approximately $72,200 to $72,276. The 20-day moving average is rising quickly, while the 50-day moving average is trying to cross back above the 200-day moving average. If Bitcoin sells toward $72,000, the 50-day moving average could also be near that area and provide additional support.

So right now, the key relationship is straightforward: yields and oil are rising while stocks, precious metals, semiconductors, and Bitcoin are testing increasingly important levels. This is not the time to chase moves; let 4.809% on the 10-year yield, $91 to $94 oil, $755 SPY, $532.08 SMH, and the $72,000 Bitcoin area tell us where the next move is actually developing.