Market Data / Market note
Rising Yields and Oil Pressure Markets as Tech and Bitcoin Test Key Breakout Levels
Can markets break higher while yields and oil keep rising?
We had a mixed session, but the main pressure came from rising oil prices and a 10 Year Treasury yield that kept pushing higher. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) slipped 0.16%. It started the day looking ready to move back toward resistance, then faded and finished without a breakout or confirmation. Support is near the June 2 high around $760, while the rising trendline remains resistance at $773.62.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) declined 0.37%. It still has room before reaching resistance at $730.25, while $704.32 is the level to watch for support. A close below that area would weaken the structure. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) held up better, but it is still being rejected at its rising trendline. Continued consolidation could form a bull flag and build momentum for a V-shaped recovery. A move below $553.44 would weaken that setup.
The CBOE 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index (TNX) is showing bullish consolidation on the hourly chart, with resistance at 4.687%. As long as yields remain elevated, broad equity rallies may struggle to gain lasting momentum.
COMEX Gold Futures (GC) stayed inside the previous session’s range and held above the lower channel boundary at $4,213, which moves to $4,217 for the next session. COMEX Silver Futures (SI) is also consolidating, with resistance at $63.26 and the next level at $67.99. Both metals remain sensitive to the direction of Treasury yields.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CL) rebounded 4%. Near term resistance is $83.55, with support at $72.70. Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG) continued making new 2026 lows. The former support at $2.75 is now resistance, and the next support is $2.53. Natural gas can move violently in both directions, so any position should remain small, planned in stages, and prepared for a holding period extending into March or April of next year.
Bitcoin (BTC) is still being rejected at the lower boundary of its parallel channel. The first level it needs to reclaim is $64,877. After that, it must hold inside the channel and break the inverse head and shoulders neckline at $66,761. That could open a move toward $72, but the right shoulder is not complete, so the pattern has not triggered.
SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) fell from a prior close of $1,350 to $1,163, then rebounded to $1,324, but still finished down 6.8%. Support is at $1,062. Because that would be the fourth test, it carries a 50% chance of breaking. Below that, the next area is $935, while the active head and shoulders pattern still points to a possible target below $300.
Western Digital Corporation (WDC) finished down 13% and gave back much of its rebound. Its trendline has already been tested four times, and the next support area is $375.
Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) dropped 19% despite beating earnings and revenue expectations and reporting strong cash flow and AI-driven customer growth. Support sits at $215.88, with a secondary level at $202.35. A bounce from either area could begin building a larger reversal structure.
Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern after a strong earnings move. Resistance is near $495 to $500. Daily closes above $492 would strengthen the breakout setup and could activate a measured move toward $622.97, although the pattern is forming near the top of the chart, where failures are more common.
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) is consolidating beneath resistance from $248 to $253. Support at $225.29 has already been tested. A confirmed breakout would place the next resistance at $272.91.
DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) traded between $20.61 and $23.50 after earnings, filled its existing gap, and remained close to its regular session close. With no clear directional response, the next move still has a 50% probability in either direction.
Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) previously fell from about $28 to $14, then rebounded more than 30% after reaching roughly $13. Buyers need $14.85 to hold as a higher low. If it does, the next resistance is $18.46.
Fiserv, Inc. (FISV) remains inside a declining structure, but the weekly Relative Strength Index is improving while the price makes lower lows. Support is at $53.57, followed by $38.31. A move above $59.97 would improve momentum and increase the chance of reaching $73.50.
IREN Limited (IREN) is developing a possible V-shaped recovery and inverse head and shoulders pattern. A pullback toward $35.27, followed by another attack on the trendline, could complete the right shoulder. A confirmed breakout would target $48, while a close below the July 29 low would invalidate the setup.
Right now, patience matters more than prediction. Let support prove itself, require resistance to break, and allow price confirmation to decide the next move.