Rising Treasury Yields Test Stocks as Technology, Gold, and Bitcoin Hold Key Levels

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) still have neutral to bullish chart structures, but the bond market is becoming the bigger concern.

Treasury yields continue pushing higher even though expectations suggest the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates. That matters because the bond market can tighten financial conditions without the Fed doing anything. We saw that pressure show up in S&P 500 futures, which were higher overnight before reversing around 6:00 AM EST and moving back toward flat or fractionally negative territory.

At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is breaking below a trend line going back to January, with another pivot low from May 2026. The next area I am watching is roughly 98 to 97.80. A weaker dollar can help U.S. companies with substantial overseas revenue because those foreign earnings convert back into more dollars. But for consumers, a weaker dollar reduces purchasing power and can contribute to imported inflation.

What concerns me is the combination of a weaker dollar and higher Treasury yields. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX) is near levels last seen around January 2025, with the next resistance at 4.80%. The U.S. 30 Year Treasury Yield (TYX) has reached new 25-year highs.

If investors are demanding higher yields because they are becoming less comfortable with U.S. debt, spending, or the dollar itself, that creates a very different problem than yields rising because the economy is simply getting stronger.

That does not mean stocks have to fall immediately. The S&P 500 could still move toward roughly 81 to 8,200 before the risk becomes more serious, which is only about another 4% to 6%. So I am watching the stock market, but I am watching the 10-year yield, 30-year yield, and dollar just as closely.

Moving into commodities, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) is still inside its wedge pattern. There has been little meaningful movement in the stalemate between the United States and Iran, so oil could continue moving sideways between those trend lines into the midterm period, potentially around $80 per barrel.

Gold (XAU) is getting some support from dollar weakness, but there is something more interesting happening. Normally, rising yields are negative for gold. Recently, gold has been holding up even while longer term yields rise. If those yields are rising because of concerns about U.S. debt, fiscal conditions, or confidence in the dollar, gold may respond differently than it would if yields were rising because of stronger economic growth.

Silver (XAG) is developing a bull flag, although the pattern is still immature. If it continues to consolidate and breaks above resistance, that favors additional upside. If it fails, I would instead watch for a retracement back toward the earlier breakout area. Either way, I want the chart to confirm which setup is developing before acting.

Natural Gas (NG) weakened overnight and then started recovering, but it remains between resistance and longer-term support. Winter seasonality, the stated shortage in Europe, and increasing natural gas demand from data centers could support prices over the mid to long term. Right now, though, the chart is still telling me to be patient.

Technology is also giving us some important setups after some very large declines.

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) traded as high as almost $1,750 in premarket trading before pulling back with the broader market. It is around the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and I am watching the 61.8% retracement around $1,840 to $1,835. There is also a gap fill around $1,923. I still see room for the rebound to continue, but that 61.8% area is where I would become more conservative and begin considering a gradual short position.

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) fell 41% in roughly one month before this rebound began. It has also reached around the 50% Fibonacci retracement. I am watching the 61.8% retracement next, while keeping in mind that there is a gap fill near the 78.6% retracement.

Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) fell 51% from peak to trough before reaching both a major gap fill and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its broader advance. Since then, it has rallied and developed a structure resembling a cup and handle followed by a bull flag. The next important area combines another 61.8% retracement with a nearby gap fill, which is where I would expect the rebound to begin losing some strength.

Finally, Bitcoin (BTC) continues holding the longer-term trend line created by its breakout. It broke above that trend line and has spent time consolidating above it, which keeps the setup constructive. The next important level is around $65,300. If Bitcoin can take out those recent highs, the setup favors a significantly stronger move higher. Until then, I am not going to assume the breakout is ready to accelerate.

That is really the approach across this entire market right now. The setups are there, but so are the risks. I want price to reach the important levels, show me how it reacts, and confirm the next move before I commit to it.