Rising Treasury Yields Put Stocks and AI Leaders Under Growing Pressure

Stocks are under modest pressure, with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) down about 0.3% as rising Treasury yields continue to weigh on the market. The bigger issue is whether equities can remain resilient if the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) keeps climbing and rate hike expectations continue to build.

The 10-year yield just posted its highest daily close since January 2025. A move above the recent consolidation increases the probability of a push toward 4.809%, and above that, 5% becomes the next major level. Tomorrow’s JOLTS report and ISM Manufacturing PMI both arrive at 10:00 AM. The more favorable combination would be job openings slightly below expectations with ISM around 50. More job openings combined with higher prices paid would create a more hawkish environment. Markets are already pricing around a 66% probability of a September rate hike, with another hike later this year also being considered.

Against that backdrop, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has support at $760.40 and resistance around $774.86. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) finished essentially flat, up 0.05%, and now needs to recover Friday’s decline. The first resistance is $723.06. There is a gap at $706, but $695 is the more important downside level.

Semiconductors remain one of the areas I am watching most closely. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) briefly broke above both a declining trend line and a larger rising parallel channel, but Friday erased that breakout. That failed move increases the probability of a pullback toward $531.23, with broader support around $530. If Treasury yields continue toward 4.809% or 5%, companies tied to heavy artificial intelligence and data center spending could remain under pressure.

Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) is also at an important point going into earnings tomorrow. It is sitting around the 50% area of its parallel channel. A break below the rising trend line would leave several layers of resistance overhead. For the bullish structure to improve, Dell needs to get above today’s close after earnings and begin working back toward its all-time highs.

In commodities, Gold Futures (GC) have lost the $4,575 support area, which now becomes resistance. If yields keep rising, the next major support is $4,333, which also lines up with the lower portion of the parallel channel. Silver Futures (SI) are under similar pressure. The next important level is $63.26, and if that breaks, the 50% area of the parallel sits at $58.89.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CL) are moving in the opposite direction, up more than 3% and testing previous pivots from August 21 and August 24. Oil already broke above its declining trend line, retraced, and bounced. If those pivot highs are cleared, especially with additional escalation in the Middle East, the next major level is $96.44.

Natural Gas Futures (NG) continue to look constructive. Price is holding above former resistance, but I still want to see confirmation above $3.01. A close above that level would put natural gas into a clearer near-term breakout structure.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) gained 5.5% after news of expanded cyber taxi delivery into additional cities and continued improvements in full self-driving capabilities. The stock broke above its recent consolidation, putting $398.11 and the psychological $400 area in focus. If Tesla reaches that zone with the current acceleration, a pullback toward approximately $375 could develop before another breakout attempt.

Take Two Interactive Software, Inc. (TTWO) fell 6.67% following reports of unvalidated leaked Grand Theft Auto VI gameplay footage. The game is scheduled for release on November 19, and the stock has already moved substantially on anticipation. If selling continues, the area just below $200 becomes important because it also aligns with the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement.

Aon plc (AON) dropped 9.53% after another failed attempt to move into the upper 50% of its long-term parallel channel. A break below $315.81 would expose the next support around $299.

Bitcoin (BTC) is still holding the $78,000 to $80,000 range, but the short-term structure remains bearish. Bitcoin briefly moved above the range, then followed that with a large bearish candle and sideways consolidation. The first important downside level is $76,116. A daily close below that level would increase the probability of a correction toward $71,000 and just below $72,000.

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) is showing a stronger technical setup. It closed above its declining trend line again today and is consolidating near resistance. If it finally gets convincing follow-through, the bullish measured move points toward $221.92.

Right now, the market is giving us several important setups, but most still need confirmation. Rising yields remain the central pressure point, energy is showing relative strength, metals are vulnerable, and Bitcoin is sitting close enough to support that patience and price discipline matter more than trying to anticipate the next move.