The rate-cut narrative is doing more work than the data

Markets love a clean story. Inflation cools, central banks ease, growth bends without breaking, and risk assets continue higher. The problem is that economic cycles rarely resolve with that much symmetry.

The useful question is not whether rates will fall. It is what the bond market, labor data, and corporate margins are already saying about the path between here and there.

My framework is simple: separate the narrative from the transmission mechanism. Watch financial conditions, real yields, and revisions. Price tells us what investors expect. Data tells us how much room those expectations have.