PPI Holds the Key as Tech, Metals, and Bitcoin Test Breakouts

The market came into today focused on inflation, and CPI landed in line with expectations. Investors liked that initially, but the reaction was not a clean rally. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) gained only 0.25%. We gapped higher, sold off hard, then spent much of the session moving sideways. That same gap up and selloff pattern has now appeared several times, including August 5, while the market is still trying to confirm a break above the previous all-time highs.

The bigger issue is September interest rates. With CPI in line and last week's jobs report showing a loss of 23,000 jobs, the probability of rates staying unchanged has increased. Right now there is a 0% chance of a rate cut and roughly a 40% chance of a rate hike. The next major test is PPI at 8:30 AM tomorrow, although additional inflation and jobs reports in September can still change those expectations.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) gained 0.73% and remains in a tight consolidation near the top of its recent range. If it pushes higher, resistance is at $729.30. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) briefly broke above its rising trend line but failed to hold it into the close. Bulls now need to clear $586.12, followed by $589.46. Getting above the 50 simple moving average would also strengthen the case that investors are becoming more comfortable taking risk.

The CBOE 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index (TNX) declined slightly, but there is still no meaningful relief from yields. The 10-year moved back toward 4.687% resistance, and if that breaks, the next resistance level is 4.809%.

Gold (XAU) continues to look strong. It has now closed above $4,333 for a third session, turning that area into near-term support. Below that, the lower boundary of the channel is $4,245. As long as this breakout holds, the next upside target is $4,575. Silver (XAG) is also consolidating constructively above support at $63.26, with $67.99 as the next resistance level.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) is still testing a declining trend line but has not produced a daily close above it. That breakout is important because it would be the first major step toward confirming the larger inverse head and shoulders setup. Natural gas (NG) continues to hold above $2.75, keeping $2.90 as the next target. If the near-term low is already in place, $3.29 becomes the larger upside target.

Now to technology, where several names are setting up around important levels. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has rallied 46% from its June 25 low to Monday's pivot. That's a huge move for a company this size, so some cooling is reasonable. Support sits at $474.90, followed by $450. The stock may simply need to digest the move before attempting another leg higher.

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) has broken out, retraced, and bounced, but the weekly chart still carries a large long upper wick. Bulls want a weekly close above $2,000 to weaken that bearish signal. Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) has a similar setup. A weekly close above $469.47 could help trigger another near-term push.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) jumped more than 19% after earnings and broke above the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. That pattern targets $40.70. Support sits around $33, with another level near $28.80, while the next resistance beyond the measured target is $43.13.

Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is also on breakout watch. A close above $259.44 would strengthen the move, and a pullback toward $241 could become an important support test. The larger target sits near $335. Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) is watching $1,361. A confirmed break there could open the door toward $1,500 while also helping invalidate the recent bear flag.

Cerebras Systems, Inc. (CBRS) is moving in the opposite direction. It closed at $262, traded down to $218 after hours, and extended toward $214. If selling continues, the next potential support area sits below $200 near $182.

CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) closed above its July 30 pivot high. It still needs follow-through, but if the breakout holds, the larger target is $80.32. Coherent Corp. (COHR) is watching $328 after that gap fill already produced one bounce. A larger swing support level sits at $295.

Bitcoin (BTC) is also sitting at an important decision point. The inverse head and shoulders pattern has not triggered yet. That requires a break above $66,779, which would point toward $74,000. On the downside, $63,400 is the key closing level protecting the current setup. Lose that, and the pattern begins to deteriorate.

So right now, there are plenty of promising setups, but confirmation still matters. With PPI next, the better approach is to let these breakouts prove themselves, respect the support underneath them, and avoid chasing price before the market shows it can actually hold the move.