Oil Nears Resistance as Gold and Silver Test Breakout Levels

The clearest setups currently exist in energy and metals, where several markets are approaching key technical levels. The main thing I am watching is how the price reacts when it reaches those areas. A former support level often becomes resistance after it breaks, but that only increases the probability of a pullback. It does not guarantee one.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) continues to move higher after filling a previous price gap that acted as technical support. Oil is now near $85 per barrel and approaching major resistance around $87. That level previously acted as support before price broke below it, so it could now become a swing trade short setup if price reaches it and begins to reject.

Another escalation between the United States and Iran could push oil toward $87 within the next day or two. I would still wait for the price to reach the level and confirm the rejection rather than entering early. The United States Oil Fund (USO) offers a way to trade the price movement without directly trading crude oil.

Gold (GC) is up about 1.8%, but it still needs to break above its descending trend line. The immediate level is around $4,150, although that level will slowly move lower because the trend line is descending.

A confirmed breakout above the wedge would create a much stronger bullish setup, with the potential for gold to move toward $4,500 and eventually return to its all time highs and beyond. Gold must break out of this wedge by August 14. If it instead breaks below the lower boundary, an algorithmic selloff could take the price toward $3,500. The longer term outlook remains bullish, with a projected target of approximately $13,000 in the early 2030s. In the near term, though, the wedge is still controlling the trade.

Silver (SI) is also bouncing, but its path higher is more difficult. Price remains within a pattern of lower pivot points and has recently been rejected after retracing into former support. The first resistance area is between $63 and $64 per ounce. Even a move above that zone would not immediately confirm a breakout because silver would still need to clear the larger descending trend line.

On the downside, the first support level is $54 per ounce, followed by $50 and $46. The current approach is to begin buying near $54, add near $50, and add again near $46 through dollar cost averaging. That plan applies while silver remains inside the current structure. A confirmed breakout would create a separate opportunity to participate in the upside.

Platinum (PL) continues to hold technical support, but the current structure resembles a bear flag. If price breaks lower, major support sits just below $1,500. That area lines up with several previous low pivot points and could become an attractive buying level. A move toward that support could occur around the same time silver approaches $50, although that remains an assumption rather than a confirmed setup.

Palladium (PA) has bounced from technical support. If it pulls back again, the area between $1,150 and $1,090 should provide stronger support because it contains a broad zone of previous consolidation.

Copper (HG) is moving higher, but the larger structure raises the possibility of a head-and-shoulders pattern. The left shoulder and head are already visible, while the current rally could be forming the right shoulder.

The pattern is not confirmed. If copper moves above the high of the head, the setup is invalid. If price curls lower and breaks support, copper could fall significantly into the low $5 range. Until one of those moves occurs, there is no clear trade.

Natural Gas (NG) is holding technical support, which is constructive, but it is also forming what appears to be a bear flag. Those two signals currently cancel each other out. Support is bullish, while the bear flag is bearish, leaving no high probability trade in either direction.

The better approach across these markets is to let price reach the important levels and confirm the next move. Oil is nearing resistance, gold and silver still need confirmed breakouts, and several metals are sitting above clearly defined support. Patience and price discipline matter here because a bounce is not automatically a breakout, and support is never guaranteed to hold.