Oil, Inflation, and Tech Earnings Put the Market’s Rally to the Test

E mini S&P 500 Futures are down about 23 points overnight, but that alone does not change the larger market structure. The S&P 500 Index gained just under 100 points last week, moving from roughly 7,485 to about 7,570. That is a little more than 1%.

The key resistance level remains just above 7,700, while major support is near 7,300. As long as the S&P stays above 7,300, the path of least resistance remains higher. If that level breaks, it could trigger a much larger move lower.

The immediate pressure is coming from increased tension between the United States and Iran. That is pushing crude oil higher, strengthening the dollar, and putting pressure on gold and silver. But I do not think the conflict alone is enough to create a major stock market decline. A deeper selloff would probably require something bigger, such as continued weakness in semiconductor and artificial intelligence stocks, a slowing economy, or inflation data that changes expectations.

The U.S. Dollar Index is moving higher, while the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield is also slightly higher. Higher oil prices can create additional inflation pressure, which makes this week’s economic data especially important.

The Consumer Price Index comes out Tuesday morning, the Producer Price Index comes out Wednesday morning, and retail sales come out Thursday morning. We also have major bank earnings from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil is up about 3.3%. The first important resistance level is near $76 per barrel. If oil breaks above that, the next target is $79. If $79 breaks, the next larger resistance zone is near $87.

On the downside, I do not expect oil to move below $67 unless the U.S. economy begins to stall. Strategic reserves still need to be refilled, which could also help limit the downside.

Gold is down about 1.1% and remains inside a tightening wedge. My near term downside level remains $3,500. Longer term, the projection remains much higher, somewhere between $11,000 and $13,000 by 2030 or the early 2030s.

Silver is down about 1.8% and still looks like a bear flag. The first downside level is $54. If that breaks, the next level is $50, followed by a lower target near $46.

In technology, ASML is one of the most important earnings reports this week. The stock moved from $680 in August 2025 to a high of $2,000 only a few weeks ago. The current structure looks like a bear flag, so I would be cautious going into earnings.

Advanced Micro Devices is close to its all-time high, with a gap fill near $581 to $582. SanDisk is being watched for a possible short setup near $202.50 to $205. Oracle remains deeply oversold, and while it could move lower, I would eventually expect a relief rally.

Netflix reports Thursday after the close. The stock is approaching a major trend line near $71 and is already heavily oversold. Earnings are always unpredictable, but technically, I lean toward a relief rally.

Finally, Bitcoin has formed a small inverse head and shoulders pattern. The neckline is near $64,200. A confirmed daily close above that level would create an upside target near $71,000.

So the big question this week is whether the S&P can move through 7,700, whether inflation data creates more pressure, and whether technology earnings support the market or expose more weakness. These markets are all connected, and the reaction to these levels will tell us whether the bull market continues or whether investors begin reducing risk.