Nvidia Slips Back Below Resistance, Putting Its Breakout at Risk

Stocks paused as Treasury yields reached another near-term high, slowing the advance in the major indexes. I’m watching whether yields begin to ease, because that could give stocks and precious metals room to recover while several individual assets approach important technical levels.

In One Minute

The stock market held together despite higher yields, but the next move still needs confirmation. The CBOE 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index (TNX) reached 5.365% before retreating, and 5.28% is the key level to watch for a possible weekly long upper wick by Friday’s close. A yield pullback could help stocks extend higher and support rebounds in gold and silver. The opportunity is there, but I want confirming closes and entries near established support before treating these setups as stronger trends.

The Setup

The main relationship is between elevated Treasury yields and the market’s ability to keep advancing. Yields have moved sharply higher, but an existing sleeper hold pattern has been followed by mostly sideways movement and limited additional upside. Today’s daily long upper wick adds another sign that the advance may be slowing. If the weekly candle finishes with that same rejection near the highs, the case for yields easing next week and the following week becomes stronger.

What Changed

Major Indexes

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) opened with a gap lower, formed a bear flag, and spent the morning below the neckline of its inverse head and shoulders pattern. Selling eased around 11:30, allowing price to recover above the opening gap area before moving sideways through the close. That recovery preserved the bullish formation and its $800.92 measured move target. A measured move is a projection based on the pattern’s size, so I still need price to confirm the setup.

Yesterday’s record high is the first hurdle, followed by upper trend line resistance around $794.64. Today did not deliver the higher close above the breakout candle that would strengthen confirmation. That leaves SPY vulnerable to falling back below the neckline. I’m looking for a clearer advance away from that line before giving the upside target more weight.

The Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) declined 0.22% after yesterday’s long upper wick warned of selling near the highs. It still recovered toward its intraday highs after four strong sessions above the previous high. Resistance is 27,722 points, the top of yesterday’s wick. If yields pull back, I see room for a move above 28,000 points before selling pressure returns.

Precious Metals

Gold (GC) traded below $4,104.14 support and reached $4,066 before recovering. The lower wick shows buyers stepped in, and easing yields could help that recovery continue toward $4,384. That target is the underside of the former rising parallel channel, which begins at the April 2025 lows. Gold has broken below that channel more than once, so I’m watching whether buying near support carries it back toward the lower boundary.

Silver (SI) also formed a lower wick, but its recovery was weaker than gold’s. A bear flag and an active head and shoulders pattern still leave $53.26 as the downside target. Today’s bounce came at the 50% midpoint of a parallel channel dating back to January 2008. That channel continues to provide support after price moved above it and subsequently returned.

A yield pullback could give silver some relief next week. The important upside test is the neckline around $66.50. Moving above that line would invalidate the head and shoulders target at $53.26. Until then, I’m treating a recovery as a bounce within a chart that still carries bearish signals.

Energy

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (CL) remains in a bear flag, but yesterday’s support recovery kept its competing bullish setup alive. Price broke below the rising parallel channel, found support at $86.90, and finished back inside it. With about 30 minutes remaining today, oil was again trying to reclaim the channel boundary at $89.31, needing approximately another $0.12. I’m also watching $89.21 as the separate immediate closing reference.

Oil’s inverse head and shoulders pattern carries a $116 measured move target. Holding the lower channel boundary keeps that possibility in play despite the bearish consolidation. A sustained break below the channel would weaken the route toward $116 and bring the pattern’s $78.06 neckline into greater focus. There is no confirmed breakdown yet, so the closing behavior around support remains the immediate test.

Natural Gas (NG) broke higher and followed through with a confirming advance. That move supported taking profits in the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (BOIL), even with another session or two of gains still possible. For another entry, I’m watching a pullback toward the declining trend line drawn from March 9 through the next group of turning points. Extending that line puts the potential support retest around $3.22.

A pullback toward $3.25 or $3.24 would also be an area to consider adding BOIL. Natural gas has an upside reference at $3.60, where it would enter the parallel channel, and an uneven cup and handle pattern projects $3.89. The current advance has reached resistance marked by several previous highs, whether viewed as a double, triple, or quadruple top. That makes this a reasonable profit-taking area while I wait for a more disciplined entry on a dip.

Semiconductors and Technology

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) declined 1.18% after moving through the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at $635.84. That level has stalled price over the past three to four sessions, following an earlier resistance area at $607.58. The weekly sleeper hold pattern, with its three underlying technical factors, preceded the semiconductor decline, while the extended advance added to the vulnerability. Support at the 50% midpoint of the previous parallel channel in July and again in September helped produce the recovery now testing higher resistance.

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) surged back inside its rising parallel channel before losing momentum and forming a bear flag. The first support zone is $685 to $692, with $690 as the central reference because both previous highs and older lows sit around that area. Below that, $668 marks the channel’s lower boundary and provides a second nearby support level to assess an additional purchase. If selling breaks the September 28 low, those are the areas I’m watching for a potential rebound.

Meta’s confirmed return inside the channel gives those support levels added relevance. The recent surge also shows why I avoid chasing a large advance after price has already moved away from support. A pullback would give me a clearer entry reference. I want to see how price responds at those levels before assuming the recovery resumes.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) moved above its parallel channel yesterday but failed to close above it, then returned inside the channel that dates back to 2024. The chart also contains a rising wedge and a separate declining trend line connecting the previous record high in May with the August high, which identifies the recent breakout. I’m watching for a weekly long upper wick near the channel’s upper boundary because that would strengthen the pullback case. Wednesday’s candle does not settle Friday’s outcome, and price can still move back and forth around the boundary without a confirmed breakout.

If NVIDIA recovers above the channel and avoids that weekly rejection, the next rising wedge resistance reference is $250 809. There is limited room before that overhead resistance becomes relevant. A stronger close would help the breakout case, while a weekly long upper wick would put more weight on the rejection. Friday’s finished candle is the key confirmation.

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) remains below its rising parallel channel dating back to December 2024. Repeated attempts to reenter have failed, and today a declining trend line connecting several previous highs stopped the advance before it reached the channel. The constructive detail is that price stayed near that trend line for two consecutive sessions and closed approximately $0.70 above the previous session. Repeated tests without a sharp retreat increase the possibility of a break through that first resistance.

If Broadcom clears the declining trend line, the next target is $391.81 at the rising channel boundary. That boundary has repeatedly capped recent advances. Clearing the first line would be progress, but nearby overhead resistance limits the initial upside room. Reclaiming the larger channel would be the next test.

Industrial and Defense Stocks

RTX Corporation (RTX) has declined for approximately nine weeks since August 10, interrupted by only one positive weekly candle. It broke below the rising trend line connecting April 2025 with the May low of this year and has extended substantially beneath it. The more conservative support area is $170, where a gap fill meets the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from the April low. A direct decline into that area could offer a stronger technical bounce toward the broken trend line around $194.

If RTX first rebounds into resistance and then returns to $170, that level could still hold, but the next bounce may be less forceful. There is also a more aggressive entry possibility near current prices, where several previous highs form support and the daily Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is below 20. Readings below 30 are considered oversold, but the weekly chart is not yet oversold, which keeps $170 relevant. A small initial swing position near the current support cluster would be aimed at a possible $9 to $11 recovery toward the broken trend line.

Curtiss Wright Corporation (CW) is approaching previous highs that may now provide support across its aerospace, defense electronics, naval and power systems, and industrial businesses. Its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the April lows sits at $473.65, while weekly RSI is already oversold at 28.52. Price was $509.10, with a weekly low of $502.31, making a move below $500 an immediate area to watch. A technical rebound could reach $608, offering a potential gain of approximately $100 from the area being monitored over the next several sessions.

Digital Assets and Crypto

Bitcoin (BTC) declined 2.36%, but the broader chart changed very little. Since the large September 21 breakout candle, price has mostly moved sideways. For a stronger bullish setup, I want closes near the upper end of that range, as on October 4, rather than continued trading near its lower boundary. Staying near the lows leaves the recovery less convincing.

The important upside level is $89,440, where Bitcoin would clear the rising neckline of its head and shoulders pattern. A move above it would invalidate that bearish formation and give me a stronger reason to consider adding, even above the recent lows. It would also strengthen the possibility of moving above $100,000 without establishing an immediate route to new record highs. Until that resistance breaks, Bitcoin remains in a sideways consolidation with an unresolved bearish pattern.

Why It Matters

These markets are offering different degrees of confirmation. Natural gas has already followed through on its breakout, while SPY still needs a stronger close and NVIDIA needs Friday’s candle to resolve its possible rejection. Gold and silver could benefit from easing yields, but their individual support and resistance levels still matter. Meanwhile, the oversold defense stocks offer possible rebounds, with the entry price and the path into support affecting the quality of those setups.

Key Levels

Bull Case

The broader bullish case improves if yields ease and SPY confirms its breakout, allowing the Nasdaq to challenge 27,722 points and potentially move above 28,000 points. Gold could recover toward $4,384, while silver needs to clear $66.50 to remove its bearish target. Oil must defend its channel to preserve the $116 setup, and natural gas can build on its confirmed breakout toward $3.60 and $3.89. Bitcoin needs to clear $89,440 before the case for a move above $100,000 becomes stronger.

For individual stocks, I’m watching Meta’s nearby support, Broadcom’s repeated trend line tests, and NVIDIA’s ability to avoid a weekly rejection. SMH’s recovery needs to overcome the resistance where it has stalled. RTX and Curtiss Wright have potential rebound setups around their support areas and oversold readings. Those opportunities become more useful when price confirms that buyers are responding at the levels being watched.

Bear Case

If yields remain elevated, the relief supporting the stock and precious metals outlook would be missing. SPY could lose its neckline, silver’s $53.26 target would remain active, and oil losing its channel would weaken the $116 setup while bringing $78.06 into focus. NVIDIA’s weekly long upper wick would strengthen the pullback case, while SMH and Broadcom remain constrained by resistance. Meta still has a bear flag, and Bitcoin trading near the bottom of its range would leave its bearish pattern unresolved.

What to Watch Next

Friday’s closes are the immediate focus, especially the 10-year yield around 5.28% and NVIDIA’s possible weekly long upper wick. Over the next sessions, I’m also watching SPY for follow-through, Broadcom for another resistance test, and oil for closes around its channel boundary. Natural gas pulling toward $3.25, $3.24, or $3.22 would bring the next entry area into view, while Curtiss Wright moving below $500 would sharpen the rebound watch. Bitcoin needs stronger closes within its range and ultimately a break above $89,440.

Bottom Line

The main question is whether Treasury yields finally ease enough to support another advance in stocks and precious metals. Friday’s close will help resolve that relationship, while Bitcoin and the individual stock setups still need their own confirmation. Stay patient, respect the levels, and let the closing price confirm the trade.