NVIDIA Retreats From Record High as AI Spending Concerns Pressure Technology Stocks

Stocks had a quiet session with the bond market closed, while technology shares faced renewed concerns about AI spending and monetization. The bigger question is whether lower 10-year yields can help technology recover despite signs of exhaustion on its charts. The NASDAQ’s rising support line sits at 26,856 points, and NVIDIA’s weekly long upper wick suggests that any immediate bounce could still face resistance.

In One Minute

The S&P 500 finished down 0.06%, but the weakness was more noticeable in technology, with SMH falling 2.05%. Concerns about the AI data center buildout are resurfacing as investors trim positions ahead of earnings and prepare for 2027. The opportunity is that daily and weekly reversal signals in the 10-year yield could bring some relief to technology stocks. Watch how SMH responds at its Fibonacci support levels and whether NVIDIA’s potential bounce can get past the resistance created by its weekly long upper wick.

The Context

We have already had a strong run this year, so investors are asking whether prices have moved too far ahead of business results. Meta Muse helped ease AI monetization concerns around Meta, but developments at OpenAI brought those questions back into focus, alongside concerns involving AVGO and Intel. Banks report this week, followed by technology companies in the coming weeks, giving us more insight into their projections. That earnings sequence matters as investors reassess which companies can sustain growth from the ongoing AI buildout.

Key Developments

S&P 500 and NASDAQ

The S&P 500 opened with a gap higher, then slipped and spent much of the session hovering around negative territory. Most of the 10-minute chart showed sideways movement, although the final three candles lifted prices back toward unchanged. The index finished down 0.06%, with limited movement while the bond market was closed.

The NASDAQ faced more selling pressure as the AI concerns carried over from last week. Its chart has a long upper wick, and further selling brings the rising trend line from the March lows into focus. That line has supported every previous test and currently sits at 26,856 points.

10 Year Yield and U.S. Dollar Index

The 10-year yield did not move during the session, but last week’s large weekly long upper wick remains one of the most important signals here. There is also a weekly sleeper hold pattern and a daily sleeper hold pattern, giving us two time frames pointing toward lower yields. I’m watching for consolidation toward the previous 2023 high at 5.021%, although the move may stop before reaching it. If yields come down, that could help technology bounce as SMH reaches support.

The U.S. Dollar Index pushed higher by 35%, contributing to the pressure on gold and silver. A potential daily close above the recent consolidation puts the next resistance at 102.86 points in focus. That dollar strength remains part of the immediate backdrop for both metals.

Gold and Silver

Gold slipped while holding a bear flag above support at $4,14.14. A bear flag is a pause after a decline that can lead to another move lower. A daily close below that support increases the probability of price moving through $4,000 toward $3,945.

Silver fell 0.9% and continued its bearish consolidation, with support at the midpoint, or 50% area, of its parallel channel. Its daily head and shoulders pattern is active, with a measured downside target at $5326. That is where I expect the bear flag to resolve before a possible near-term bounce.

U.S. Oil and Natural Gas

U.S. oil moved higher amid concerns about bombings at a Saudi Arabian airport and the possibility of United States involvement. Efforts over the weekend to ease sanctions on Russian diesel fuel are aimed at bringing prices down before voters head to the polls, but less than a month remains. With volatility continuing and the chart at an area that should bounce, those efforts face an uphill battle. As long as oil maintains a comfortable distance above the declining neckline of its inverse head and shoulders pattern, the measured target at $116 remains in play.

Natural gas is consolidating after last week’s breakout and confirmed hold above that area. The advance became extended, so a pause makes sense, although I was looking for a deeper pullback to provide another buying opportunity. The upside target is $360, at the bottom of the parallel channel. The question now is whether we get that dip before the next push higher.

SMH

SMH fell 2.05% and closed back inside the rising parallel channel that has guided prices since the April 2025 lows. Roughly five consecutive declining candles have brought it back into contact with the channel’s upper boundary. Earlier moves into that channel were followed by recoveries above it, but price is now testing the area again.

Using the September 14 low and the latest high, the 50% Fibonacci retracement puts nearby support at $58860. The level I’m watching more closely is the 0.618 retracement at $57659, which lines up with several previous highs. If selling continues into the channel, that combination could provide support for a bounce back toward its upper boundary. That would fit the familiar sequence of breaking a trend line, finding support, and returning to test the broken line.

NVIDIA

NVIDIA has a large weekly long upper wick at its all-time high, showing that buyers could not hold the advance. Those weekly rejections often take several weeks, or even months, to overcome, although the stock can still bounce in the meantime. On the daily chart, five red candles have brought price toward a rising trend line connecting previous lows. The Fibonacci levels converge near $222.99, making that a potential bounce location.

I expect that bounce to be short-lived, with the weekly long upper wick creating a risk of rejection. If taking that setup, the plan is to get out quickly rather than assume the recovery will continue. A later break of the rising trend line would bring around $215 into focus. That area combines the bottom of the rising parallel channel with previous highs from June and July.

Snap (SNAP)

Snap rose 4.82% after roughly six sessions of increasingly sharp gains. Heavy call option buying during the session and on Friday helped confirm the breakout, with expectations that AI could improve its outlook following the reaction to Meta Muse. Legal concerns involving younger social media users remain part of the backdrop, while AI developments have shifted attention toward potential growth.

Pullbacks toward the previous pivots at $618 or $607 could offer an entry for a move toward $76. The next resistance is $706, while the larger obstacle is a long-term trend line projected around $766 as we move through November. Getting above that longer-term line would open considerably more room, but Snap has to clear it first.

The longer-term support line connects the December 2018 low with the April 7, 2025 low. Snap failed to hold its earlier recovery and repeatedly returned to that line before bouncing again. Those repeated reactions make the line critical to the chart’s structure. The immediate question is whether this latest breakout offers a pullback before another attempt at resistance.

Meta

Meta gained 3.38%, following the earlier surge tied to Meta Muse that eased AI monetization concerns for now. I had expected its bearish consolidation to produce more downside, and that possibility remains open despite the stronger session. The trend line at $690.36 connects previous lows and has also rejected later attempts to move higher.

If Meta turns lower over the next month or two, the horizontal support area and bottom of the parallel channel could come into play. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement also sits in that zone, strengthening the setup for a near-term bounce. I’m watching support from around $690 down to $675, along with the $25 to $30 support range. A decline into that area could provide an entry going into 2027 as further ways to monetize AI develop.

GE

GE remains connected to the AI data center buildout through the use of aerospace engines to help provide power. Its rising parallel channel has supported a strong advance, with pullbacks followed by renewed gains. The more recent M pattern puts stiff resistance near $338.

The rising trend line connects the April 2025 low with an April low from this year. Price previously bounced and consolidated above it, producing about a 7% recovery from low to high. That line has since broken, leaving $321.7 as the first resistance for a bounce. Above that, the bottom of the M pattern sits around $339 to $340.

The Fibonacci retracement from the 2025 low to the latest high shows that price touched the 0.382 level on Thursday of last week. A two-day bounce followed, which could carry GE back toward the broken rising trend line. If price turns lower again, I’m watching $300 and the bottom of the parallel channel around $288 as support. Those areas could produce a recovery toward the trend line and eventually the channel’s midpoint, offering a more discounted entry.

Digital Assets and Crypto

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is down 84%, while its recent structure remains in sideways consolidation. The November 2025 low previously acted as resistance, rejecting several attempts before price finally broke through. That level has now shifted into support, and no new structural break has occurred.

The concern is the downward move followed by sideways consolidation, which forms a potential bear flag. The longer Bitcoin stays close to support in that pattern, the greater the risk that repeated tests eventually break it. Buyers need a move back toward $86,400, followed by consolidation at that higher area. That would put Bitcoin in a better position to challenge $89,500, the rising neckline of its previous head and shoulders pattern.

Repeated tests matter on both sides of a level. Bitcoin needed several attempts to get through resistance, and the same process can weaken support if price keeps pressing against it. I want to see it lift away from that support before getting more constructive about the next move.

Why It Matters

A bounce and a sustained recovery are different setups in this market. Lower yields could help SMH and NVIDIA recover, but NVIDIA still has a weekly rejection to overcome, and SMH may simply return to test its broken channel boundary. The overlap of trend lines, previous highs, and Fibonacci levels gives us specific places to judge those recoveries. Bitcoin has a similar need for confirmation, with a move away from support improving its position before the next resistance test.

Key Details

Bull Case

The technology recovery setup starts with lower yields and SMH finding support, particularly at its 0.618 retracement. NVIDIA could bounce near $222.99, while Meta’s support zone and GE’s lower channel area offer separate potential recovery setups. Snap’s confirmed breakout could continue toward resistance, with a larger opportunity if it clears the long-term trend line. Oil retains its $116 target above the neckline, natural gas retains its upside setup after consolidation, and Bitcoin improves its position by recovering toward $86,400.

Bear Case

NVIDIA’s weekly long upper wick could reject a bounce and lead to a trend line break toward $215. The NASDAQ and SMH still face support tests, while Meta’s bearish consolidation and GE’s broken rising trend line leave room for further selling. Gold needs to hold $4,14.14, and silver’s active head and shoulders pattern still points toward $5326. Bitcoin remains vulnerable if its bear flag continues pressing against support.

What to Watch Next

Bank earnings arrive this week, with technology results following in the coming weeks and providing more information about growth projections. On the charts, watch the 10-year yield’s reversal signals, the NASDAQ’s 26,856 support, and whether SMH and NVIDIA bounce where expected. Snap’s pullback and resistance tests, Meta’s support zone, and GE’s return toward its broken trend line are the next equity confirmations. For commodities and Bitcoin, the focus stays on gold’s daily close, silver’s downside pattern, oil’s neckline, natural gas’s consolidation, and Bitcoin’s ability to recover toward $86,400.

Bottom Line

Lower yields could give technology some breathing room, but a bounce still needs to prove itself against the resistance already on the charts. Bitcoin needs to move away from support before its next challenge to $89,500 becomes more convincing. The opportunities are there, but patience and price discipline matter while these setups are still developing. Let price reach the level, then watch whether it holds.