NVIDIA Reignites Tech Rally as Rising Yields Limit Broader Gains

Stocks are leaning higher, with technology leading the move after NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) delivered strong earnings and guidance, but the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) is only up about one-third of 1%. The tension is that renewed artificial intelligence strength is bringing money back into risk assets while the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) is creeping higher and putting pressure on the broader market.

The S&P 500 remains in a sideways range, and as long as it stays above the key pivot area, the bias remains neutral to bullish. A move into that pivot would make the setup more neutral, while a break below it would be a reason to become much more conservative. The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is stronger because of NVIDIA, but rising yields are limiting how much that strength is spreading across the rest of the market.

Part of the pressure on yields is coming from inflation concerns. Crude oil is slightly higher, and NVIDIA also made it clear that demand for chips, memory, and other components exceeds current production capacity. That points to more capital spending and potentially more inflation pressure. Kevin Warsh's speech at 10:00 AM from Jackson Hole is another important event, particularly if he comments on Treasury involvement in the bond market and his preference for less intervention. Jobless claims were muted, and the nonfarm payrolls report comes next week.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is fractionally higher, but it continues to form a bear flag. The pattern still favors another move lower if that structure eventually breaks down.

The main story in technology is NVIDIA. The stock initially fell roughly 5% after earnings, then reversed and moved up about 7% once guidance came out. Revenue increased 106% year over year to $96.2 billion, earnings per share reached $2.22, beating by $0.14, and data center revenue increased 117%. The bigger catalyst was the $2 trillion backlog and fiscal 2028 full-year growth guidance of 70%, compared with the roughly 45% revenue growth the market had been anticipating. That is significant for a company valued at roughly $5 trillion and generating almost $100 billion in quarterly revenue.

For NVIDIA, the first resistance area is $227 to $228. Above that, I am watching $232, followed by the all-time high at $236. The larger swing area remains higher near the upper trend line of the contracting wedge, where previous rallies have produced meaningful pullbacks.

The strength is spreading through semiconductors. Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is higher, and SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) is rallying sharply. CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) also surged after earnings, with $216 to $218 as the first shorter-term area of interest. Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) broke above a declining trend line, retested it successfully, and moved higher. The next important area is $239 to $240, where previous pivot highs meet the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is also surging, with resistance around $185. HP Inc. (HPQ) is the exception, falling about 10%, with an important reaction zone between $24.80 and the gap fill near $24.50.

In the consumer space, Dollar General Corporation (DG) is higher after earnings, while Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is moving the opposite direction and falling. Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) is also slightly lower.

Now look at commodities, because this is where the rotation becomes important. Gold Futures (GC) are continuing to pull back after reaching resistance. The first major support is around $44.25, which still leaves room for roughly another 3.5% decline before reaching that area. Newmont Corporation (NEM) recently reached an all-time high even though gold remained roughly 20% below its own all-time high. That gap matters because miners had benefited as money rotated away from artificial intelligence and semiconductors. If technology continues to strengthen, some of that money could rotate back out of gold and the miners.

Silver Futures (SI) remain essentially flat and directly below resistance. Crude Oil Futures (CL) are slightly higher after a couple of pullback sessions, with resistance at the declining trend line and support at the rising trend line of the wedge. Natural Gas Futures (NG) are becoming more constructive after closing above a key resistance trend line. I still want confirmation, but if that breakout holds, the setup could support a move toward $4.

Bitcoin (BTC) is slightly higher, but the early strength is already fading. Bitcoin rallied strongly from roughly 3:00 AM ET to 5:00 AM ET, then pulled back after reaching a daily resistance zone. That does not mean Bitcoin has to fall, but resistance remains resistance until price proves otherwise. The important signal now is whether buyers can actually push through that area and confirm the move.

Right now, NVIDIA and semiconductors are trying to pull the market higher, while rising Treasury yields are pushing back against that strength. Gold is correcting, natural gas is trying to confirm a breakout, and Bitcoin is still testing resistance. This is a market where patience matters, so let the levels confirm the move before chasing price.