Nasdaq Struggles to Recover as Tech Earnings Test Buyers’ Resolve

The S&P 500 is trying to pull away from support as earnings become the market’s immediate focus. The challenge is that several charts remain vulnerable while Middle East tensions complicate the outlook. I’m watching whether technology results can help the Nasdaq close above 26,579 points tomorrow and give this market more room to recover.

In One Minute

Stocks are holding important levels, but the recent sideways trading has not cleared the risk of another decline. Earnings are the immediate catalyst, with technology results arriving against an unsettled geopolitical backdrop. Oil still has an upside pattern, gold and silver remain vulnerable, and Bitcoin has not confirmed a breakdown. The Nasdaq’s 26,579-point recovery level and Bitcoin’s $80,524 support are two important conditions to keep in view.

The Context

Banks started earnings season last week, and attention is now shifting toward technology and other major companies. Some investors may be trimming positions before results, so they have room to add if prices fall. That makes the immediate trading harder to interpret: sideways movement can reflect caution ahead of earnings, but it can also leave an existing bearish pattern intact.

Middle East tensions remain the larger backdrop, particularly for oil and RTX. A possible peace agreement could bring oil lower, while continued conflict could support demand for specialized weapons. For RTX, though, demand is only part of the equation because production speed determines how quickly its backlog becomes deliveries.

Key Developments

The S&P 500 had a positive session after its daily low came close to rising trend line support. That is the same line tested on Friday, when price managed to close above it. The move higher creates some separation, but we are still too close to support for comfort.

The previous bullish flag failed, price moved lower, and we now have sideways consolidation after that decline. That leaves another move down looking more likely if this trading pattern continues. The next support test is at $76040 on the chart tracking the S&P 500.

The Nasdaq (IXIC) keeps reaching up to a declining trend line and then retreating before the close, almost as though it is trying to hold onto a pull-up bar. Price previously broke above that line but has now slipped underneath it. Buyers need to reclaim it to improve the immediate outlook.

The first and only candle to close below the line did so with force, but we have not seen follow-through. That leaves the Nasdaq in the middle ground rather than confirming a breakdown. A close above 26,579 points tomorrow would open some near-term upside, particularly if technology earnings provide support.

The 10-year yield pulled back, fitting the expectation for choppy trading between 5.289% and 5.021% after its sharp breakout. The long upper wick and sleeper hold pattern still point toward a likely near-term peak and additional downside. Bearish consolidation could lead to a direct test of 5.021%, although Thursday’s decline only reached the upper edge of the Tuesday, September 15 pivot.

Oil had a volatile session, finishing with a doji candle after large moves in both directions brought it back near its opening level. Price settled around the $981 pivot associated with Friday, September 18. The 10-minute chart shows how quickly sentiment changed when news of a possible Middle East peace agreement through Pakistan reached the market.

Oil sold off sharply as investors reacted to the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, then recovered much of that decline. It did not return to its level before the news, instead repeatedly testing a trend line, piercing it, and getting rejected. More recently, price moved above that line and was trying to settle on top of it.

A peace agreement gaining traction could send oil toward the bottom of its parallel channel at $9302, followed by $86.90. My stronger technical expectation remains the inverse head and shoulders pattern, which points toward $116 if price breaks above $103.88. A diplomatic breakthrough would change that setup and also matter for gasoline, transportation, and the cost of delivering goods.

Natural gas declined, but its sequence of breakouts and pullbacks remains important. Earlier moves broke above declining trend lines, returned to them, and briefly pierced those breakout levels. This time, price bounced before reaching the latest declining trend line, which connects back to March 9.

Inventories are due on the 22nd, so that release could bring volatility and another brief move through support. Inventories are slightly below their usual level heading into winter, which supports my expectation for a recovery. I’m looking for another attack on the trend line that recently rejected price at $362, followed by a possible break toward $389.

Gold continues to consolidate bearishly, and I still see room for lower prices. A break below $4,000 would bring stopping points around $3,900 and $3,800 into view. Buyers could step in around the pivot near $3,900, but that response would not necessarily finish the broader decline.

Deeper down, the April 2025 pivot high sits around $3,500. A longer rising trend line connecting an earlier pivot high with the lower consolidation range provides another potential entry just above $3,600. Those are the deeper areas I’m interested in for physical gold if selling continues, rather than assuming the first bounce ends the weakness.

Silver also remains in bearish consolidation, although the last three sessions have done a good job staying above the recent lows. The larger head and shoulders pattern remains active, with a measured downside target of $53.26. The three-day bullish flag has provided some immediate resilience, but a break below its low would put that target back in focus.

The physical silver buying area is closer than gold’s. I’m watching $53.26 down to $50, where a horizontal line aligns with an earlier pivot high. Holding above the recent lows helps in the short term, but it has not removed the larger bearish setup.

SMH fell 38% and is putting in more sideways consolidation, leaving open the possibility of technology weakness during earnings. Some of that selling could reflect investors reducing exposure before results so they can add if prices move lower. Support is the bottom of the longer rising parallel channel at $52,9.50, while resistance is the channel’s 50% area at $56425.

WDC has fallen more than 50% from a peak around $800, creating substantial trading volatility. Two positive sessions followed Friday’s hard selloff, but I’m not convinced that establishes a bottom. Lower shelves remain just under $300 and around $320.

A declining trend line has provided support on repeated attempts during the descent, but Friday’s decline did not reach it. That leaves room for another move lower, even though shares were lifting after hours. Investors may be buying the decline early because the stock is already heavily beaten down, so a bounce and renewed selling both remain possible.

SanDisk looks somewhat more intact because its decline has reached the bottom of a rising parallel channel. The problem is that price is pressing against that boundary in a bearish manner. It needs to move away from support and recover toward the lower edge of the earlier pivot around $1,500.

Repeated tests increase the chance that the channel eventually breaks. If that happens, the next important support is around $1150. Both SanDisk and WDC could bounce first, but they could still roll over, and technology earnings may influence that next move.

SpaceX is rallying after earnings, following a decline and sideways consolidation that would normally lean bearish. What I like is that three of the last four daily candles have lower wicks, showing buyers defending this area. The preceding move ran from $105 to $17642, and the pullback reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $140.76, which has held since then.

The decline also took price back below the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. The current rally is meeting resistance around that broken boundary. I’m watching $14934 and the declining trend line at $15025 as the immediate hurdles.

Daily closes above $150 would give SpaceX room to work toward $160. An opening above $150 tomorrow, followed by continued momentum over the coming days, would support that move. Around $160, the rising trend line meets the lower range of the October 8, 9, and 12 consolidation, making that a potential profit-taking area.

GE declined following earnings, continuing the breakdown, retest, and fade setup already visible on its chart. The rising trend line extends back to April 2025, connects with a later pivot, and remained meaningful through the surrounding consolidation. Price broke below it, returned from underneath, and then faded, leaving further downside highly probable.

The next support is $285, where the bottom of the parallel channel lines up with a gap fill. Earnings can still be a coin flip, even when the technical setup is clear. If a position is already profitable going into results, trimming some exposure leaves room to reassess the chart afterward.

RTX is in the early stages of a similar breakdown, retest, and potential fade. Shares declined despite a good earnings report, with investors questioning how quickly specialized weapons can be produced and delivered from the backlog. Continued conflict could keep demand strong and help support price while that production concern remains unresolved.

More than 24 tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz during the past week, alongside reports of United States strikes the previous night. I do not see tensions easing soon, and an increase after the midterms remains part of my expectation, although I hope that does not happen. That backdrop could keep RTX pressing against its rising trend line and potentially breaking above it, even as the immediate chart shows a failed recovery and a fade.

Netflix dropped sharply after hours and was trading around $65. The Fibonacci retracement runs from the May 2022 low to the June 2025 all-time high and previously identified a strong bounce at the 50% level. Since then, price has traded around that midpoint without establishing a sustained recovery.

The next lower retracement level is $6129. The previous move through the 50% level extended well below it, so another support test could also overshoot. Additional pivots around $58.75 could provide a strong near-term bounce if selling extends into that zone.

Bitcoin is still holding support, so the daily bearish consolidation has not become a confirmed breakdown. The level that changes my view is $80,524, particularly if we start getting daily closes underneath it. That area was resistance for months before price reclaimed it, and it also marks the low pivot reached during the November 2025 selling.

As long as Bitcoin stays above $80,524, it still has a chance to retest $89,926. That is the underside of the broken head and shoulders neckline, so it remains an important resistance test. I would prefer to see consolidation higher in the $86,000 to $86,500 range, but the current setup remains intact while support holds.

Why It Matters

The recurring issue across these charts is how price behaves around a level it has already broken or repeatedly tested. GE shows former support becoming resistance, while the Nasdaq has not yet followed through on its initial breakdown. WDC and SanDisk show why a short bounce does not automatically establish a bottom.

Oil shows how quickly a headline can trigger selling without producing a lasting technical change. RTX shows the related business tension: strong demand can support the outlook, but production limits still matter. Earnings and geopolitical developments are moving prices, while the charts help identify whether those reactions are actually changing the setup.

Key Details

Market Outlook: Opportunities and Risks

The recovery opportunities still depend on specific conditions. Positive technology earnings could help the Nasdaq reclaim 26,579 points, while SpaceX needs daily closes above $150 to create room toward $160. Natural gas has room to challenge its recent rejection level, and the deeper gold and silver zones remain conditional opportunities if selling reaches them.

The risks remain visible in the failed S&P 500 flag, GE’s rejection at former support, and the pressure against SanDisk’s channel boundary. WDC has not yet tested its declining support line, while Netflix could extend lower before finding a bounce. Oil’s upside pattern remains the stronger technical expectation, but a peace agreement gaining traction could produce the opposite move.

What to Watch Next

Tomorrow’s earnings calendar includes AT&T, NextEra Energy, Tesla, Meta, IBM, and Texas Instruments. I’m watching whether those results help the Nasdaq reclaim its declining trend line and close above 26,579 points. For SMH, the key is how the sideways consolidation develops through the end of the week.

Natural gas inventories on the 22nd are the next stated energy catalyst. In oil, watch whether diplomatic developments gain traction and whether price holds its recovered trend line or reaches the $103.88 breakout level. For SpaceX, an opening above $150 and subsequent daily closes above it would support the move toward $160.

Bottom Line

Earnings are the immediate test of whether stocks can recover resistance or remain vulnerable near support. Oil’s reaction to peace developments adds another important uncertainty, while Bitcoin still holds the level separating consolidation from a breakdown. Stay patient and let the stated levels confirm the next move.