Nasdaq Hits New Highs as Tech Momentum Runs Into Resistance

Stocks are holding firm after Monday’s powerful technology rally, with the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) pushing to a new all-time high as semiconductors and AI-related hardware continue to lead. The opportunity is still on the upside, but several of the strongest markets are now running directly into resistance while Treasury yields remain firm, so price discipline matters more than chasing momentum.

In One Minute

The Nasdaq closed at a new all-time high, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has now cleared three major technical barriers in four trading days. The S&P 500 Index (SPX), tracked here through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), was much quieter after Monday’s unusually smooth, light-volume rally, while the U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield gave back very little ground. Lower oil prices are helping the broader market, but financial stocks are weakening, gold and silver are testing important structures, and Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a neckline that could determine whether its bearish head and shoulders target remains active. The major level for technology is 28,000 on the Nasdaq, where two resistance structures come together.

The Setup

The broader setup starts with what happened after last week’s triple options expiration. Monday brought an unusually steady advance, particularly across AI data center names that had suffered sizable drawdowns over the past several months. SPY climbed with almost no meaningful intraday pullback, and the move came on relatively light volume.

Today was different. SPY moved modestly higher but was largely flat, and the market returned to more normal intraday behavior. The important technical point is that SPY remains above the declining trend line it recently broke. For the bullish structure to strengthen, I want to see price move above today’s candle and close there. After that, a controlled pullback into the former declining trend line would become the next important support test.

The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield did not provide much relief. Yields dipped, recovered, and finished in consolidation. That helps explain why stocks were not accelerating higher today. Falling oil prices provided some support instead, helped by discussion of potential Middle East peace talks, although nothing has developed yet. This week also carries geopolitical risk around the United Nations General Assembly and the scheduled Wednesday and Thursday meeting involving President Xi Jinping and President Trump.

What Changed

Technology is still doing the heavy lifting. The Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) broke its previous all-time high and closed at a new all-time high. The next major technical destination is 28,000 points. That level is important because two separate resistance structures converge there, and it is also a major psychological round number. If the Nasdaq moves directly into 28,000, I would expect that area to be difficult to clear on the first attempt.

The semiconductor move is even more aggressive. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has completed three significant breakouts in four trading days. It broke the declining trend line from the previous all-time high, confirmed that breakout Friday, moved above the rising parallel boundary Monday, confirmed that move today, and also established itself above the daily 50MA.

Now the problem is location. SMH has reached resistance at 60758, which lines up with the 618 Fibonacci retracement from the prior high to the July 29 low. RSI is also approaching 70, putting the ETF near short-term overbought conditions. I would rather see a retracement back toward the top of the former parallel channel and then a successful hold than chase it directly into resistance.

ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) gained 7.58%, but the close was not as strong as the percentage move suggests. Price rallied early and then sold back underneath the declining trend line extending from the April 2025 lows through the March 27 pivot. The level that needs to be reclaimed is $29.85. If ON can get through that resistance and begin stacking closes above it, the next area is around $35, which also lines up with the 50% area of the parallel channel and the lower portion of the June and July consolidation. Another test of the trend line would weaken that resistance, but today’s close did not confirm the breakout.

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) has a cleaner structure. Its inverse head and shoulders pattern was rejected on September 8 and September 9, broke higher Friday, failed to confirm Monday, and finally confirmed today. The measured move target is $2625, with the next resistance at $1950. SNDK has also been trading inside a rising parallel channel since the beginning of the year, so further strength toward the upper portion of that channel would fit the existing structure. Pullbacks following this confirmation can become opportunities to see whether the breakout is holding.

Financials are moving in the opposite direction. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) fell 3.42% and moved underneath previous weekly wick support at $34315. A weekly close below $34315 would increase the probability of additional downside toward the rising trend line at $325.14. The 50% area of the larger parallel channel is not far below at approximately $320.75, creating a broader support zone.

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) fell almost 4% and closed beneath low pivots formed through June, July, and August. If those levels remain broken through the weekly close, the next important area is the rising trend line combined with the 618 Fibonacci retracement at $802. From there, a recovery could take price back toward the low-range consolidation pivots around $8405.

Bank of America Corporation (BAC) is already closer to the bottom of its parallel channel. Its 618 Fibonacci retracement sits at $55.38 and also aligns with previous price pivots. Across JPM, WFC, and BAC, the important theme is confluence: trend lines, Fibonacci retracements, channel boundaries, and previous pivots are beginning to cluster into potential support areas.

Precious metals remain constructive. Gold spot price in U.S. dollars (XAUUSD) has produced a V-shaped recovery followed by bullish consolidation. As long as gold holds the lower boundary of its rising parallel channel at $4,332, the structure remains intact, with the next resistance at $4,575. On the weekly chart, gold has mainly remained inside this rising channel since the April 2025 low. The major weekly long upper wick formed in January warned of the decline that followed, and price is now trying to maintain the broader rising structure.

Silver spot price in U.S. dollars (XAGUSD) is acting somewhat stronger than gold. The first resistance is $67.99, followed by $72.7. Silver previously looked like it was developing a bearish head and shoulders breakdown, but that move failed to confirm. Price held the rising trend line and moved back into bullish consolidation.

Now another shoulder, head, shoulder structure is developing in the opposite direction. That leaves silver in a technical race. A break through the neckline could open considerably more upside and potentially send price toward the rising trend line above. Failure would reopen the path toward the lower boundary. The additional decision levels are 6463 and 7101. For now, silver remains in a neutral zone with a slightly more constructive short-term structure.

U.S. crude oil (USOIL) continues moving lower inside the consolidation range created after the September 2 advance. If selling continues, the next downside support is $86.38 at the bottom of the parallel channel.

The larger inverse head and shoulders pattern is still active. Its declining diagonal neckline remains important, and the measured move target is $11627 as long as price stays above that neckline. The concern is that oil bulls would have preferred price to remain inside the consolidation range or at least inside the upper 50% of the parallel channel. That is not happening, so the near-term focus has shifted toward finding downside support.

Natural gas (NG) continues to show a cleaner breakout and retracement pattern. The repeated sequence has been breakout, pullback, support, then another push higher. The next major resistance is $3.24 along the declining trend line. I would expect consolidation around that area, but the larger structure still leaves room for natural gas to move higher toward the bottom of the broader parallel channel. That larger channel dates back to February 2024, and the longer-term technical setup remains focused on eventually moving back inside it.

Digital Assets and Crypto

Bitcoin (BTC) had a large rally Monday and then paused today, but the larger technical setup is reaching an important decision point.

The existing head and shoulders pattern is still active because Bitcoin previously broke its neckline and never fully retested it. Price is now finally returning toward that broken neckline. The key level is $89,54. A daily close above that line would invalidate the measured downside target from the head and shoulders pattern and allow bullish sentiment to strengthen again.

At the same time, Bitcoin has already built a bull flag and pushed above the previous resistance at $80,524. From here, the next move is likely toward the rising trend line above. What I want to see is constructive consolidation before another breakout attempt, similar to the consolidation that helped Bitcoin build enough momentum to clear $80,524. The move does not need to go straight up. It needs to defend the breakout and prove buyers can maintain control as price tests the neckline.

Why It Matters

This market is showing strong momentum, but entry quality is getting worse as several leaders move directly into resistance. Nasdaq strength confirms that technology is leading, but 28,000 is a significant test. SMH has powerful momentum, but it is approaching both Fibonacci resistance and an RSI reading near 70.

At the same time, Treasury yields are not falling enough to provide a major tailwind; financial stocks are moving toward support, oil is weakening, metals are consolidating, and Bitcoin is testing a level that could invalidate its bearish pattern. The market can remain bullish without moving vertically, and several of these assets would actually benefit from controlled consolidation before their next move.

Key Levels

The levels carrying the most weight across markets are Nasdaq 28,000, SMH 60758, gold $4,332, Bitcoin $89,54, and JPM $34315. Those areas can tell us whether momentum is still expanding or whether the market needs a broader reset.

Bull Case

For equities, SPY needs to get above today’s candle, close there, and then hold the former declining trend line on a retracement. Nasdaq can continue higher toward 28,000, but clearing that double resistance would be the stronger confirmation. SMH remains constructive if a pullback holds the former parallel breakout area and buyers regain momentum.

Gold remains bullish above $4,332, with $4,575 next. Silver improves materially if it clears its neckline and then works through $67.99 and $72.7. Natural gas stays constructive if the current breakout and retracement sequence continues through the $3.24 test.

ON needs to reclaim $29.85 and begin building closes above the trend line, opening at $35. SNDK has already confirmed its inverse head and shoulders breakout, leaving $1950 as the next resistance before the larger $2625 measured move target.

For Bitcoin, a daily close above $89,54 would invalidate the bearish measured move and strengthen the existing bull flag structure.

Bear Case

SPY weakens if the recent breakout cannot hold. Nasdaq could stall at 28,000 because of the double resistance overhead, while SMH is already confronting 60758 with RSI moving toward 70.

Gold would lose part of its bullish structure if $4,332 and the lower parallel boundary fail. Silver remains vulnerable if its neckline cannot break and price rotates back toward the lower side of the structure, with 6463 and 7101 remaining the key decision values.

Oil is already showing weaker short-term behavior. Continued selling puts $86.38 in focus, although the larger inverse head and shoulders remains active while price stays above its neckline.

Financials need close attention. A JPM weekly close below $34315 raises the probability of a move toward $325.14 and potentially $320.75. WFC remaining below its summer pivots shifts attention toward $802. BAC is already approaching $55.38 near the lower portion of its channel.

Bitcoin remains technically vulnerable while the head and shoulders neckline stays intact. Failure to close above $89,54 leaves the bearish measured move active.

What to Watch Next

Watch whether the Nasdaq can continue toward 28,000 without losing momentum, whether SMH retraces cleanly from 60758, and whether SPY can close above today’s candle before retesting its breakout trend line.

In commodities, gold needs to defend $4,332, silver needs to resolve its competing patterns, oil needs to find support before $86.38 becomes the primary focus, and natural gas has to deal with $3.24.

For individual stocks, watch ON at $29.85, SNDK at $1950, JPM at $34315, WFC as the weekly close develops around its broken summer pivots, and BAC near $55.38.

Bitcoin’s $89,54 neckline test is one of the clearest confirmation points on the board.

Geopolitically, the United Nations General Assembly, the scheduled Wednesday and Thursday meeting involving President Xi Jinping and President Trump, and any development around Middle East peace talks remain part of the background for risk assets and oil.

Bottom Line

Technology is still leading, but Nasdaq 28,000 and SMH 60758 are telling us that momentum is now meeting real resistance. At the same time, gold, silver, oil, natural gas, the major banks, and Bitcoin are all approaching levels that can confirm or change their current structures.

This is not the place to confuse strength with a need to chase. Let the breakouts confirm, let the pullbacks test support, and let price come to the level.