Market On Close: Falling Yields Lift Stocks as Jobs Data Loom

Stocks moved higher as buyers returned with much stronger participation, helped by falling Treasury yields and a sharply weaker U.S. dollar. The bigger question now is whether that relief can continue, because the market has bounced directly back into resistance just as the jobs report and the next Federal Reserve decision come into focus.

The U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) dropped to about 4.73% before recovering to 4.77% by the end of the day. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that he was interested in keeping rates steady at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee decision as long as the next inflation report shows progress. The next Consumer Price Index report comes next Friday, and the FedWatch tool moved to roughly a 50% chance between a rate hike and keeping rates unchanged.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) also fell sharply and tested support inside its rising parallel channel, around the same area tested on August 21. Unlike Treasury yields, the dollar did not recover much by the close, and that helped stocks stay elevated.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) had a strong gap higher, but the rally stopped directly at a declining trend line that has already acted as resistance. Most of the gains happened early. After three declining days, the market has now spent roughly three days bouncing right back into resistance. The jobs report at 8:30 AM becomes the next major catalyst. A stronger report could increase the probability of a rate move, while a weaker report could reduce some of the pressure on the Fed and support keeping rates steady.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) gained 1.19% and pushed through its gap fill, but it is also approaching a declining trend line that has rejected price before. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is still consolidating below its own declining trend line. A move above $553.77 would open the door toward $569.65. If rate pressure returns, support sits at $533.91.

Gold Futures (GC) benefited from the weaker dollar and remained elevated around $4,471, with the next resistance at $4,575. Silver Futures (SI) gained 2.41% and is moving toward resistance at $67.99. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CL) paused after roughly six trading days of strength. The pullback was limited because escalation in the Middle East continues to support oil, although the chart is showing an area where price could stall or pull back.

Natural Gas Futures (NG) sold off after inventories were released at 10:30 AM. Inventories came in in line but were double the previous reading. Natural gas has still cleanly broken and confirmed above $2.90. A return toward the rising trend line could create another momentum opportunity, with $3.12 to $3.13 as the next areas before the larger declining trend line comes into play.

Technology remains one of the stronger areas, but several names are moving directly into resistance. Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) confirmed its breakout above a declining trend line and moved toward roughly $530 before meeting resistance around $527.60. A pullback toward the former trend line could become another momentum opportunity, while the next major resistance sits at $582.71.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) recovered sharply after opening lower. Buyers now need to reclaim $54.74 to open another test of the triple top. Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) gave back part of its earnings move and remains extended. Its rising trend line is around $346.70, while the recent pivot high sits above $400, around $405.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has gained more than 6% over the past three days after breaking above a declining trend line, retesting it, and moving higher. The problem is that resistance is now stacking up near $232, followed by the all-time high and then the 50% area of the longer parallel channel. Buyers still have work to do before NVIDIA can establish another breakout.

Bitcoin (BTC) also had a strong rally as the weaker dollar helped fuel the move. Bitcoin pushed through a major declining trend line that had been holding price down since the November 2025 pivot. The previous breach carried Bitcoin to almost $83,000. A close above $82,920 would strengthen this breakout and improve the case for Bitcoin remaining above $80,000. After that, the next resistance is the December 2025 pivot just below $85,000.

Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD) gained 16.57%, helped largely by revenue tied to cryptocurrencies and token-based products. It also broke above a declining trend line, but another rising trend line is sitting near the current high. A clean gap above that resistance would open the way toward the next level just below $135.

So the market has momentum again, but a lot of that strength is now running directly into resistance. With yields, the dollar, the jobs report, and Bitcoin all sitting at important levels, this is a market where patience matters more than chasing price.