Market Data / Market note
Intraday Update: Surging Oil Pushes Treasury Yields Toward 5% as Stocks Test Support
Can Stocks Hold Support as Oil Pushes Treasury Yields Toward 5%?
Stocks are selling off as West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) pushes above $102 a barrel and the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) moves closer to 5%. The bigger question is whether rising oil and yields finally break the S&P 500 Index (SPX), or whether stocks keep holding support despite the pressure.
In One Minute
WTI is above $102, up 5.33% today, after gaining about 29% in two weeks and 38% since August 5. US10Y is near 4.922%, putting the major 5% level in play. SPX is still only about 3% below its all-time high and remains bullish above roughly 7,570 to 7,570.50. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin are also under pressure, but their next moves depend heavily on what happens with yields and oil.
The Setup
Oil is controlling the macro picture. The Houthis are becoming more involved in the Iran conflict with the United States, including attacks involving Saudi Arabia and disruptions through the Red Sea in addition to the Strait of Hormuz. That has helped push crude sharply higher.
Higher oil adds inflation pressure, which is helping push Treasury yields higher. US10Y has already broken above its previous January 2025 pivot and is now approaching 5%, a major double-top resistance area.
What Changed
WTI reached above $102 and is now approaching its next major resistance at $104. The broader target area is $104 to $108.
At the same time, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase next week is now stated at 90%. Producer Price Index data came in roughly neutral, with the core month-over-month number slightly better, but oil remains the bigger inflation issue.
SPX is selling, but the larger technical structure has not broken. As long as it holds roughly 7,570 to 7,575, the bullish bias remains intact.
Why It Matters
The relationship is simple: higher oil can keep inflation pressure elevated, higher inflation can push yields higher, and higher yields can pressure stocks, gold, silver, and crypto.
If high energy prices eventually slow the economy, yields could begin falling. That would change the pressure currently hitting several markets at once.
Key Levels
| Asset | Current Area | Support | Resistance | What Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI | Above $102 | $104 to $108 | Next major upside zone | |
| US10Y | 4.922% | 5% | Major double top resistance | |
| SPX | About 3% below all-time high | 7,570 to 7,575, then 7,400 | Below 7,400 opens risk under 7,000 | |
| Gold Spot U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) | Under pressure | $4,300 | Head and shoulders risk if support breaks | |
| Silver Spot U.S. Dollar (XAGUSD) | Under pressure | Neckline | Break points toward $55 | |
| Bitcoin U.S. Dollar (BTCUSD) | Lower today | Key support still holding | Trend line broke, higher lows remain |
Bull Case
For stocks, SPX needs to keep holding 7,570 to 7,575. That would preserve the bullish structure even with oil above $102 and US10Y near 5%.
A reversal lower in oil would also help. The geopolitical view presented here is that some form of agreement or ceasefire could happen before the midterm elections. If that pushes oil sharply lower, yields could follow, and stocks could move higher.
Gold and silver would also benefit if yields pull back.
Bear Case
SPX becomes neutral below 7,570, with 7,400 becoming the bigger line. A break below 7,400 would signal a more serious breakdown and could take SPX back under 7,000.
Gold needs to hold around $4,300. If that breaks, the head and shoulders pattern becomes a larger concern. Silver has a similar setup, with a neckline break pointing toward roughly $55 an ounce.
Continued strength in oil and a break above 5% in US10Y would keep pressure on these markets.
What to Watch Next
The first level I am watching is 5% on US10Y. The next is $104 to $108 on WTI.
Consumer Price Index data tomorrow also matters, but right now oil remains the stronger market driver because it is directly affecting inflation expectations and yields.
Bitcoin deserves patience here. Bitcoin has broken an important trend line, but it is still making a low, followed by higher lows. That means the current structure can still develop into bullish consolidation if support holds.
The previous Bitcoin short has been closed for a small gain, and the current position is cash while waiting for a clearer high-reward, low-risk setup. Bitcoin is down, but important support continues to hold. Zcash U.S. Dollar (ZECUSD) remains positioned on the short side.
Bottom Line
Oil is still running this market. As long as WTI keeps climbing and US10Y stays near 5%, stocks, precious metals, and crypto remain under pressure.
SPX holding 7570 to 7,575.0 keeps the bullish case alive, while a break below 7,400 would change the picture significantly. For now, the most important signal is whether oil and yields finally reverse, so this is a market where patience and price confirmation matter more than forcing the next move.