Higher Yields Test the Market as Oil, Metals, and Stocks Push Key Levels

The market started the week quietly, with light volume and very little broad volatility. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was down just 0.03%, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) slipped about 0.3%, and VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell about 2%, with most of that semiconductor weakness coming in the final 10 minutes. Investors appear to be holding back ahead of CPI and PPI after last week’s weak jobs report, because those inflation numbers could influence whether rates are cut, held steady, or potentially raised. The probability of a hike has already been reduced following that jobs report.

SPY is forming a bull flag, but because it is forming near the top of the chart, I would be more cautious with it. Daily closes below $767.46 would weaken the structure and increase the probability of a move toward $758.61. QQQ is still in choppy bullish consolidation, with three of the last four sessions closing near the upper part of the range. Volume was only about 25 million shares compared with roughly 31 million Friday. Resistance is $729.79, with support at $704.32.

SMH is showing more weakness. It remains stuck under an inclining trend line, and unlike SPY, it did not recover from that final 10-minute selloff. After hours, it was around $571.18. If selling accelerates, the next support area is $553.10.

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is holding up surprisingly well despite rising rates. It has broken above the declining trend line from the July 1 pivot and confirmed that breakout. Pullbacks toward that old trend line can remain constructive, with new all-time highs still possible. The risk is credit. If loan defaults begin hurting banks while rates remain elevated, IWM could come under much heavier pressure.

That matters because the United States 10-Year Treasury yield closed again above 4.687% and is now around 4.703%. If this momentum continues, 4.809% is the next level. The larger structure still looks like bullish consolidation in yields, which could create additional pressure on rate-sensitive areas such as housing.

In commodities, COMEX Gold Futures (GC) have moved back inside the parallel channel dating to the April 2025 lows. Support is around $4,227, with resistance at $4,575. The current move remains strong, but the larger expectation is still for this to be a near term technical rally, with downside eventually closer to $3,500.

COMEX Silver Futures (SI) have broken above both a declining trend line and the July 6 pivot. Support is $63.26, with resistance at $67.99. Continued momentum could push silver toward the $80 range, around $81.23, but that would place it back into the previous bearish consolidation, where rejection becomes a bigger risk.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CL) gained more than 6%. Resistance is $84.24, and this is now the fifth test of that level. The probability of breaking higher has moved to roughly 52% to 55%. If it does break, $96.44 becomes the next major objective, with the broader possibility of moving closer to $100 per barrel.

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG) finally produced a stronger move. The longer-term demand argument remains tied to artificial intelligence data centers and their need for additional power. The first resistance is $2.90, followed by the declining trend line at 328.

Among individual stocks, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) surged after earnings and reached new all-time highs. It also has an inverse head and shoulders pattern near the top of the chart, so confirmation matters. VRTX needs to move above $546.17 and close above it. If that happens, the neckline around $503.03 becomes more important, with a measured move toward $655.68.

Everpure, Inc. (P) has pushed sharply into all-time highs and pierced $100.59. Daily RSI is around 75, which is already overbought. Resistance is $105.79. A move above that level could allow additional upside, but after such a fast advance, consolidation remains a major consideration.

Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) has fallen about 34.9% since June 3. The important support area is roughly $102 to $100. A third test of the bottom of its longer-term parallel could produce a meaningful bounce.

Sea Limited (SE) has fallen roughly 60% and broken below its longer-term inclining parallel. The key area is around $130, which also aligns with the January 28 pivot high. A regular move into $130 could face selling pressure, while a gap above it would weaken that short setup considerably.

Bitcoin (BTC) is still the clearest example of why confirmation matters. It remains outside its parallel channel and below the declining neckline of a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. A break back into the channel, followed by a close above that neckline, could open the $72,000 to $74,000 range. Until that happens, the larger bearish consolidation and head and shoulders structure remain intact, with the downside target still below $40,000.

Right now, the market is holding together, but higher Treasury yields, important inflation data, stretched commodity moves, and several stocks sitting near major technical levels argue for patience. The setups are there, but the price still needs to confirm them before the next move deserves conviction.