Gold Pullback Tests Key Support as Metals Rally Meets Resistance

Gold is pulling back after a roughly 19% rally from its lows, with the price now facing major resistance where several technical levels converge. The bigger question is whether this is simply a healthy pause before another move higher, or the beginning of a deeper reset across gold, silver, copper, platinum, palladium, and especially the gold miners.

Starting with gold, the longer-term outlook remains very bullish, but after this kind of run, I would be more cautious in the short term. Gold broke above a major trend line and moved sharply higher, but it has now reached another important trend line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement sitting nearby. When you have multiple resistance levels in the same general area, that tends to make the zone more difficult for price to push through.

So far, gold is pulling back from that resistance. I do not expect a massive decline before the next potential leg higher. The first major support I am watching is around $4,430 to $4,440.

The gold miners are a different story. I am more cautious there because they have run much harder than gold itself. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) reached the 78.6% Fibonacci level, a previous pivot high, and a gap fill in roughly the same area. That concentration of resistance stopped the move, and GDX is now trading lower, even though we are seeing a little bounce.

That matters because the miners can move much more aggressively than gold. If gold pulls back 2%, the miners could potentially move around 5%, which is why the downside setup there is more interesting.

Newmont Corporation (NEM) is a good example. When gold previously made its all-time high, Newmont was also at an all-time high. Gold has now rallied about 19% from its lows but still has another 19% to go before reaching its all-time high, while Newmont has already returned to its own all-time high area.

That creates a noticeable disparity. Newmont is also sitting near double top resistance, and the downside target is around $120, give or take.

Silver has been weaker than gold during this rebound, even though silver will often move more aggressively. One reason is that gold has been benefiting from government buying and concerns tied to long-dated bonds and confidence in fiat currencies. Silver still has a significant industrial component, so its behavior can be more sensitive to the strength of the economy.

Silver has also reached resistance, but I would not be looking to short it here. I would rather wait for weakness and look for a better long entry. The first area I would like is around $56. The more interesting setup would be closer to $50 if the two major trend lines converge there. I still have a suspicion that silver could reach $50 before finding a more durable bottom, although that is not guaranteed.

Copper is another market I am watching closely. It has had an incredible bull run, but every time it reaches the current trend line, it has been rejected. The important trigger is around $6.50. If copper breaks below that trend line around $6.50, that could open the door to a larger move down, with $5.20 as a possibility.

Platinum has also reached resistance and is pulling back. The first support area is around $1,750. If that breaks, the next support is around $1,660.

Palladium has been a little weaker than platinum. It has not made as large of a move higher, and the chart has formed a lower high, which is somewhat concerning. If palladium continues lower, the buying area I would be watching is around $1,100 to $1,150.

Across the metals complex, the common theme is that price has already made a significant move and several markets are now testing resistance. Gold still looks constructive longer term, but I would rather wait for support around $4,430 to $4,440 than chase the recent move. Silver becomes more interesting around $56 and potentially $50; copper needs to confirm a breakdown around $6.50; and platinum and palladium both have clearly defined support below current resistance.

The key right now is patience. These markets have already moved, so I would rather let price come to the levels that improve the risk and reward instead of chasing after the move.