Gold and Silver Face Deeper Pullbacks as Oil and Natural Gas Test Key Levels

Let’s start with the bigger picture because the same principle applies across all of these commodities: I am not trying to predict an exact top or bottom. I am looking for areas where the probabilities can be improved.

Fear can push prices below reasonable value, and greed can carry them far above it. That is why I prefer buying gradually within a defined range instead of placing the entire position at one price.

The longer-term case for hard assets still comes back to United States debt, continued government spending, and the lack of meaningful fiscal restraint. Unless that changes, assets that store value should continue moving higher over time, even if they experience major corrections along the way.

Gold Spot Price (XAUUSD) is still trapped inside a converging wedge. Until it closes above or below that structure, there is no confirmed move.

The upper boundary is around $4,200. A confirmed break above it would clear several major pivot highs and could create a rally, followed by a check back, and then another move toward the all-time highs.

The wedge can technically remain intact until around August 14, although I expect it to break sooner.

On the downside, a breakdown could take gold toward $3,900 and eventually into the $3,500 to $3,600 area. That lower zone is important because the 50% Fibonacci retracement aligns near $3,600, right around a major previous consolidation area.

Gold traded near $1,600 in November 2022 before beginning the larger advance into early 2026. So even a drop toward $3,500 or $3,600 would still look like a normal retracement inside a much larger bull market.

My broader accumulation zone runs from about $3,600 to $3,400. I would rather add gradually near $3,600, $3,500, and $3,400, with room to add around $3,300 or $3,200 if the decline goes further.

Either way, my long-term outlook remains bullish. I still believe gold could be near $10,000 by 2029.

Silver Spot Price (XAGUSD) remains weaker in the short term. It broke former support, confirmed below it, and then rejected when it retested that level as resistance.

The pattern still favors a move toward roughly $50. That level matters because it lines up with the major highs from 1980 and 2011. A return there would be a classic retracement back to the prior breakout area.

I would treat roughly $54 to $46 as the broader accumulation zone. That could mean starting small near $54, adding near $50, and adding again around $46.

I am not claiming the exact bottom will be $50. It could stop around $52 or $54, or extend toward $45. Silver already showed how difficult extremes are to time when it moved above $100, reached about $110, and then continued toward $120.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CL) reached about $76 per barrel, coming close to the $78 to $79 upside target.

If crude breaks through resistance, the next target is around $86 to $87. That said, the market is beginning to question how much the United States will escalate tensions with Iran before the midterm elections.

I do not expect oil to return to $100 per barrel. If the United States economy weakens later in the year, crude could eventually break down toward $50.

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG) lost its cup and handle pattern after the sharp selloff. The original setup only had one confirming factor, which historically offered about a 60% probability. Two confirming factors were described as improving that probability toward 70% to 75%.

The important support area is now near $2.80. A trend line connecting the 2024 and 2026 lows comes into that area, and a parallel channel also points toward the same zone.

Natural gas could flush a little further, but I would then look for a reflex bounce toward $3.00. The bigger breakout level is around $3.30. If price gets back there and clears that declining trend line, the bullish setup becomes much stronger.

Natural gas was trading around $3.20 to $3.30 when the cup and handle were forming. Near $2.80, it is significantly cheaper, crowded traders have been flushed out, and seasonality becomes more favorable as we move into August and September.

The Bottom Line: Gold and silver remain long-term bullish, but both could still correct before the next major advance. Oil has near term upside potential, but weakening economic conditions could eventually push it lower. Natural gas has lost its original pattern, but the selloff may have created a better opportunity near major support.

The goal is not to chase price. Wait for confirmation, respect the technical levels, and build positions gradually where the risk becomes more manageable.