Gold and Silver Break Out as Stocks Pause and Semiconductor Risk Lingers

The market finally paused after a strong six-day run, but the bigger issue is whether the recent strength can hold. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) reached a new all-time high, then slipped back below its inclining trend line and failed to close in record territory. Near term resistance is $773.41. If price pulls back, I am watching the previous June high at $760.40 as the more important support area.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) fell 0.9%, but it is still holding above the resistance levels cleared during the recent gap higher. Resistance is now $731.33, while support sits at $704.32, where a horizontal level from the June 5 low meets a declining trend line.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is still the chart I am watching most closely. Semiconductors helped drive this rally, but SMH remains below its inclining trend line and has not regained its 50-day moving average. Until it starts closing above both levels, the strength in SPY and QQQ remains vulnerable to fading. A clean semiconductor recovery would support another leg higher. Another rejection would increase the risk of selling returns.

The U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX) moved only slightly lower, but it did not push higher. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has also declined sharply and is consolidating above support at 99.55. Weaker ADP employment data and JOLTS reports helped support metals, while expectations for September remain close to a coin flip, with a 55% chance of a rate hike and a 45% chance that rates remain unchanged.

Gold Futures (GC) delivered one of the strongest moves of the session. Gold confirmed a breakout above its declining trend line and moved back inside the parallel channel that has been in place since April 2025. The next step is holding the channel entry near $4,213 as support. A move above the current session’s high would provide stronger confirmation. If gold falls back below that level, it becomes vulnerable to another decline. A move below $3,500 is still possible, but the current breakout makes that look more like a midterm risk than an immediate one.

Silver Futures (SI) gained more than 4% and confirmed a breakout above its near term declining trend line. The recent consolidation formed a short-term bull flag, and the next resistance level is $63.26. The larger channel still allows for a possible return toward $50, with its lower boundary reaching below $30 by January of next year.

Newmont Corporation (NEM) also broke above its bear flag boundary at $98.93. Bulls now need a close above the current session’s high to turn the breakout area into support. If that happens, the next target is $108.84.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CL) briefly moved higher after reports of an attack on a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, but those gains quickly faded. If oil continues lower, support sits at $72.70, followed by $70.59 and $68.59.

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (NG) remain under pressure and failed to recover $2.75. The next downside level is $2.53. Longer term, potential demand from artificial intelligence data centers and normal winter consumption could eventually lift natural gas back toward its inclining trend line, but the timing remains uncertain.

Earnings reactions are also showing how demanding this market has become. Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) traded near $225 after hours, then reversed and fell about 15% despite an earnings beat. The next support level is $188.98.

CDW Corporation (CDW) fell after reporting a 20.1% margin, down from 20.8% last year and below the expected 21.2%. Even with the stock down 9%, the recovery from the low was strong. Support is $135.39, and holding that level would keep $160.63 in play.

Western Digital Corporation (WDC) moved below $459 after hours, while $459.47 initially held as Fibonacci support. Repeated tests can weaken that level, so renewed selling could push price toward $400. Deeper support sits near $373.99, creating a broader support zone between roughly $400 and $370.

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) fell to $1,192 before bouncing. The next support level is $1,046, although that would be the fourth test and carries roughly a 50% chance of breaking. The level needed to improve the near term outlook is $1,353.

AppLovin Corporation (APP) dropped to roughly $332 after hours and traded as low as $297. Support sits at $317.15, followed by $262.64, with the gap near $300 also in focus after a decline of nearly 25%.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) moved above $100 after beating earnings expectations but missing revenue expectations. The breakout above the declining trend line still needs confirmation. If price holds, the next major test is near $105.

Bitcoin (BTC) has moved back inside its parallel channel after several failed attempts. The first level to hold is $64,796. The bigger decision point is $66,781. A break above that level opens the path toward $72,000. A rejection would put the lower boundary of the channel back in focus.

The market is still moving higher in key areas, but confirmation remains uneven. The strongest setups are developing around clear levels, and this is still a market where patience, position size, and price discipline matter more than chasing the first move.