Fed Risk, Rising Oil, and Semiconductor Support Drive the Market

The Federal Reserve is the main event today, with the rate decision at 2:00 PM EST and the press conference at 2:30 PM EST. The market is pricing a 38% chance of a hike and a 62% chance that rates stay unchanged. The current target range is 3.5% to 3.75%, and a hike would move it to 3.75% to 4%. Holding steady is still more likely, but 38% is high enough that we have to respect the possibility of a surprise.

S&P 500 E mini Futures (ES) moved higher overnight, then turned negative before the opening bell as semiconductor weakness returned. In South Korea, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) hit its limit down threshold for a second straight session. The drop reached 44% from peak to trough, and the index closed the overnight session down about 40%.

That decline follows a roughly 300% gain from April 2025 to the peak. Two stocks make up more than 50% of the index, and both have risen by hundreds of percentage points, including gains near 400% over the prior year. Even after this correction, the market remains more than 100% above where it traded a year earlier. The index has pierced its 50% Fibonacci retracement and is moving toward the 0.618 area. The correction may not be finished, but the setup creates potential for a 20% to 30% rebound.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) is up about 7% as conflict between the United States and Iran resumes. The earlier short setup had a 50% Fibonacci retracement and a major trend line, supporting an estimated 75% probability of success. That setup is no longer there, so I do not see a strong trade at current levels. Oil may now be forming a wedge, with rising support and falling resistance. When that range breaks, the move could be large.

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is slightly lower, but the wedge is still holding. By August 14, the chart should be forced into a breakout or breakdown. Gold becomes more interesting near $3,500, but the better approach is to start small and add gradually while the thesis remains intact. Spot Silver (XAGUSD) has the weaker chart and still favors more downside. Around $50 would be a starter area. Spot Natural Gas (NATGAS) is getting a small bounce, but the more important support remains around $2.56 to $2.55.

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) report after the close, along with several semiconductor companies. SK hynix Inc. (000660) sold off after earnings, recovered, weakened again, and then stabilized near the prior close. If it falls again, the broader semiconductor group could be pushed into major support.

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) reported strong earnings and raised guidance. The stock remained about 5% to 6% higher in premarket trading. Aggressive traders may watch the gap fill near $81.40 to $81.50, but the chart does not yet support a higher conviction swing trade.

Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) is more interesting because three trend lines are converging in the same area. A drop toward $100 would leave the stock roughly 60% below its highs and could create a 20% to 30% rebound toward about $128.50 to $130.

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) carries the same cyclical risk. A low price-to-earnings ratio can be misleading when margins are near their peak. As margins weaken, earnings can fall quickly, and the valuation ratio can rise even while the stock drops. The opportunity improves as fear replaces greed, but the price still needs to reach support and confirm the setup.

Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) recovered much of its earnings decline. The first important gap area is near $231, but the stronger swing setup would be closer to $200, where a previous pivot high, a gap fill, and a major round number come together.

Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) jumped after strong earnings and higher guidance. The stock had fallen about 55% in one month, lowering expectations and bringing it into major technical support. That created an estimated 75% or greater probability of a bounce.

SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) moved lower after earnings. The main level is a $15 pierce, which may offer a day trade if buyers respond, but the broader chart still does not support a swing position.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains in the upper part of its range. The key support zone is $62,500 to $63,000. Bitcoin needs to hold that area and eventually break above $67,000. If it does, the next target is $71,000. The chart is still constructive, but a decisive daily break below support would change that view.

Semiconductor fear is creating better opportunities, but falling prices alone are not enough. The best setups still require patience, defined levels, and confirmation before capital is committed.