Falling Yields Lift S&P 500 as Inflation and NVIDIA Risks Loom

Stocks are moving higher this morning, with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) getting support from a pullback in oil and lower U.S. 10 Year and 30 Year Treasury yields. The bigger question is whether those lower yields can keep supporting equities, or whether inflation, Federal Reserve expectations, and upcoming NVIDIA earnings bring that pressure back.

The U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) is down more than four basis points, which is helping stocks, but it has not technically broken down yet. A move toward roughly 4.6% could give the S&P 500 another lift toward its all-time high, but a larger equity rally probably needs the yield to break below its bigger trend line. Until that happens, lower yields are helping, but they are not giving us full confirmation.

The S&P 500 itself is still trading inside a megaphone pattern. As long as it stays above the 75, 60, 70 pivot area, the near-term bias remains bullish. A break below that area would shift the outlook toward neutral, while losing the larger support trend line would increase the probability of a more meaningful downside move.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is roughly flat and could still see some additional upside before eventually moving lower. The concern with a weaker dollar is inflation, because a weaker currency can make imported goods more expensive. That matters with PCE inflation data coming tomorrow morning, Kevin Warsh speaking at Jackson Hole Friday at 10:00 AM, and another Federal Reserve meeting approaching in just under three weeks.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is the next major piece of this market. The stock has struggled since its May high and is approaching an important rising trend line connecting the April 2025 low, the March 30, 2026 pivot low, and the July 29 pivot low. The options market is pricing an implied earnings move of about 6% in either direction.

There is still evidence of demand, including an order for 9,000 Vera Rubin chips from a company in India. But the bigger issue is guidance and margins. Investors want to see no meaningful slowdown and margins remaining near their peak. Any sign of slower demand or margin contraction could become a major negative for NVIDIA. The stock is trading around 15 times forward earnings, but at this size, even an additional $5 billion in revenue has a smaller proportional impact than it once did.

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) is down almost 20% after missing on revenue, earnings, and issuing very weak guidance. That weakness is also pulling down NIKE, Inc. (NKE) and Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU). The level I would watch on DICK'S is around $138 for a possible short-term bounce, but after a move this large, selling pressure can continue for roughly three days as funds reposition and margin calls are addressed.

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) has gone almost straight from about $470 to $600 and is now running into both horizontal resistance and an ascending trend line. That makes a near-term pullback increasingly reasonable after such a vertical move.

The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) is also worth watching if it pulls back toward $25. It previously broke above a descending trend line and is now retracing toward that breakout area while Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) and Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) have been under pressure.

In commodities, Gold (XAU) was rejected from resistance and could see a multi-day pullback toward first major support around $4,435. Silver (XAG) is also selling off after stopping just short of its resistance trend line. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) is pulling back inside its wedge, with support around $79. If that breaks, the lower end of the wedge comes into focus. For now, oil remains range-bound between roughly $85 and $75 to $72 per barrel. Natural Gas (NG) also continues struggling to break higher.

Bitcoin (BTC) is one of the more important setups right now. Price pushed into resistance overnight, pierced that level, and is now at risk of forming a daily long upper wick. At the same time, Bitcoin ETF inflows were the largest since the previous Bitcoin top. That does not prove another major top is in, but resistance, rejection, and very strong bullish inflows together create a reasonable case for a near-term retracement.

The base case for Bitcoin is a pullback toward approximately $73,000 to $71,000, which would represent about a 50% retracement of the recent move. There is also a deeper area around previous pivot highs and the inverse head and shoulders breakout that could become more attractive if Bitcoin gets there.

So the market is getting some relief from lower yields and weaker oil, but price discipline still matters. Stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin are all sitting near important decision areas, and this is a market where waiting for support, resistance, and confirmation matters more than chasing the move already in front of us.