Falling Oil and Tech Surge Drive Stock Breakout, but Semiconductor Resistance Keeps Risk Alive

The week is starting with a clear shift in tone. Middle East peace discussions pushed oil sharply lower, and that helped stocks move higher. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) confirmed a near-term breakout after closing above its declining trendline on Friday and extending higher again today. The main support remains $742.64, but after this latest push, the rising trendline near $749.94 may become the more immediate level to watch.

The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) gained 1.76% and broke through the trendline that rejected the price on Friday. Resistance is now $704.32, while bulls need to keep the daily close above $695.25. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is moving more slowly. It has been rejected for three straight sessions while trying to reclaim its rising channel. A daily close above $547.40 would confirm the breakout. That matters because semiconductors still need to participate if the broader market is going to stay strong.

The United States 10 Year Treasury Yield (TNX) eased to 4.686%, which gave equities some breathing room. A close above 4.687% would keep yields elevated and increase the probability of a move toward 4.809%. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) initially declined, then recovered and closed above Friday’s level. The rising trendline near 99.53 remains the key support.

Gold (XAU) is trying to turn a declining trendline into support. A close above the latest candle would strengthen the near term setup, with the next resistance at $42.09. Silver (XAG) is consolidating sideways after its bounce, creating a bull flag beneath resistance. A break above 59.18 would open the door to $63.26, although the broader expectation still includes the possibility of silver eventually falling below $50.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI) dropped 7.6% and was rejected again from the extension of its previous wedge. Any renewed push higher should face resistance near $85.25. If the conflict escalates again, $96.44 remains the upside level. Henry Hub Natural Gas (NG) continues to hold above $2.75 after closing above that level for three straight sessions. The longer-term winter target remains near $3.60, but price could still fall to $2.53 first.

Artificial intelligence monetization is driving much of the strength in large technology stocks. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) gained 4.93% and confirmed its return inside the long term parallel channel. The next major hurdle is near $500. Goldman Sachs has a $640 target, while the upper boundary of the channel reaches roughly $600 in November. The stock is overbought on the daily relative strength index, so a pause near $500 would make sense before another move higher.

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) gained 9.22% as Microsoft’s results improved confidence across other heavy artificial intelligence spenders. Oracle is testing the lower boundary of its long-term channel near $142. A confirming close back inside would strengthen the recovery and place $165.12 in focus. The company’s backlog is above $600 billion, but the market still needs proof that this demand can become revenue.

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) faces resistance near $642, followed by a declining trendline around $657.97. The next test of that trendline carries roughly a 50% chance of breaking through. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) reports earnings next. Reentry into its rising channel would require a move near $560. On the downside, $388.80 is the next support. There is very little structure below it, so a failure there could create a much sharper decline.

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) pushed through $136 after earnings before pulling back. The larger setup still reflects a V-shaped recovery followed by bullish consolidation, with the next resistance at $147.94. Snap Inc. (SNAP) rose to $5.57 after earnings. A close above the declining trendline near $6.32 could open a move toward $6.90, then $7.60, and eventually $7.75.

Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) reports earnings on August 6 after the bell. It needs to reclaim the 20-day and 50-day moving averages before it can challenge the 200-day moving average and resistance at $16.35. If it stays below those averages, the larger risk remains a decline toward $10.46.

Bitcoin (BTC) is also building a short-term bullish consolidation after bouncing from the lows. The first upside level is $64,792, followed by the inverse head and shoulders neckline at $66,736. A confirmed break above that neckline would improve the near term outlook. Until then, the broader trend remains under pressure, and the risk of another move toward $50,000 is still active.

The market has momentum, but the next step is confirmation. SPY has broken out, QQQ needs to hold $695.25, SMH needs to clear $547.40, and the major technology names are moving into important resistance. Let price prove it can hold these levels before chasing the move.