Bitcoin’s July Rally Faces Resistance and August Risk

Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing the end of July with a gain of about 10.5%, and that fits the pattern we have repeatedly seen during midterm election years. Bitcoin gained almost 20% in July 2022 and almost 38% in July 2018. July often provides relief after a major decline in June or early July, but that relief has not historically meant the broader bear market was over.

That is essentially what happened this year. Bitcoin formed a low between late June and early July, then moved into a countertrend rally through July. The immediate question is whether this rally can continue into August and reach the bear market resistance band or the 200-day moving average before the next decline begins.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin needs to remain above $64,536 to preserve the current parallel structure. The first major resistance is $67,264. A confirmed move above that level would open the door toward $70,700, followed by the larger resistance zone between $72,000 and $73,000.

That zone matters because it overlaps with the broader area where Bitcoin has repeatedly struggled. Reaching it would extend the relief rally, but it would not automatically confirm that the bear market is over. The larger structure still has Bitcoin caught between the bear market resistance band above and the 200-week moving average below.

Previous midterm cycles show why we need to separate a near-term rally from a lasting market reversal.

In 2022, Bitcoin declined into June, formed a low, and rallied until about mid-August. That recovery never reached the bear market resistance band before the price turned lower again. Bitcoin had already been rejected from the 200-day moving average in April and did not return to it until January of the following year.

The recovery was stronger in 2018. Bitcoin declined into June, reached the bear market resistance band near the end of July, and came close to the 200-day moving average by late July or early August. Even then, it did not touch the 200-day moving average and remained below it from around April 2018 until April of the following year.

The 2014 cycle was different because the final low did not arrive in June. Bitcoin formed a higher low, remained stronger during the summer, and eventually reached its deeper low in October. Even with that stronger setup, weakness still returned later in the third quarter.

When we compare Bitcoin’s 2026 year to date performance with 2018, the two continue to follow a similar path. At this stage in 2018, Bitcoin was only about a day or two away from beginning its next period of weakness. In 2022, that weakness took longer to develop and did not become clear until around mid-August.

That gives us a window, not an exact reversal date. Based on previous cycles, the next period of weakness could begin within the next 2 to 3 weeks. Bitcoin may continue higher during early August, but the risk increases as we move deeper into August and then into September.

The monthly returns reinforce that risk. July was positive in 2022, but August and September were both negative. July was also positive in 2018, followed by negative returns in August and September. Even in 2014, when July was negative, August and September remained negative.

August 2022 is a good example of why early strength can be misleading. Bitcoin began the month strongly but still finished down 15%. The market could push into resistance first and reverse later in the month.

The United States 10 Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) adds another layer of pressure. In 2023, Bitcoin began declining after July as the 10-year yield moved higher. The long end of the yield curve is beginning to rise again, even without another Federal Reserve rate increase. If that continues, it could place additional pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets during the latter part of the third quarter.

The downside levels also remain important. A break below $62,000 would weaken the current bullish pattern and increase the probability of retesting the recent lows. A sustained move below $58,000 would shift the focus toward approximately $50,000, with the broader sub $50,000 scenario still possible if the bear market follows its historical pattern.

The larger four-year cycle still points toward a final market low later in 2026. October through November remains the more realistic bottoming window, or at least the period when Bitcoin could be much closer to completing the cycle.

A dollar cost averaging strategy makes more sense than pretending anyone can identify the exact bottom, but the price levels still matter. Bitcoin has delivered the expected July relief rally. Now it must clear $67,264 and then the $72,000 to $73,000 resistance zone, while holding $64,536, to prove the move has more room before the seasonal weakness of August and September takes control.