Bitcoin’s Gold Signal Strengthens While Altcoins Test Resistance

The market is focused on interest rates heading into Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee press conference. President Trump is calling for lower rates, and the main issue for risk assets is the U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield. When investors can earn an attractive return with very little risk, there is less reason to own volatile assets. When that yield falls, more capital tends to move toward Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Bitcoin is still trading inside a descending parallel channel and testing the resistance line along the upper boundary. Support held firmly on Saturday, but the larger structure has not changed. Bitcoin needs a decisive break above that channel before the move becomes more convincing. Until that happens, this is still a resistance test rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Ethereum is holding around the $1,930 area, which connects back to price action from 2021 and 2022. That prior resistance may now be turning into support. If it continues to hold, Ethereum could use it as a spring toward $2,000. Ethereum has repeatedly pushed wicks into or slightly above $2,000 even when the daily candle bodies stayed below it, so another test of that level remains in play.

Chainlink reached resistance after a strong move from support, but momentum is not keeping pace. The relative strength index is flat while the price continues higher, creating hidden bearish divergence. That raises the possibility of another pullback toward the ascending support line. Chainlink is also tightening inside a wedge that resembles a parallel channel, although the prior highs did not fully reach the upper boundary. The structure is compressing, and a larger directional move is getting closer.

Aave broke above its descending trend line and is now coming back to test that breakout area as support. That type of retracement is normal, but I still want to see daily confirmation before treating the move as fully bullish. If support holds, the next important level is $125. An inverse head and shoulders pattern may also be forming, but the neckline has not been confirmed yet. Aave can move very quickly, with a 22% decline in two days followed by a 38% rally in three days, so leverage and position size matter here.

Hyperliquid is still trading inside its parallel channel. The cleaner opportunity remains near the lower boundary rather than in the middle of the range. That lower reference was $48.880, but the channel continues to slope slightly lower. It could fall below $48 near the end of the month, with the boundary approaching roughly $47 around July 30. Until price reaches that area or breaks out of the channel, patience makes more sense than forcing a position.

XRP bounced from its first trend line support but has not fully returned to the prior breakdown area. If the broader market weakens, that first support remains the key level. If XRP pushes higher, the next major area is around $1.18. Price previously consolidated there for about a week before breaking lower, and it also traded around that level during the rally following President Trump’s 2024 election victory. XRP has now remained inside its current range for roughly 40 days. The wedge is becoming more mature, which increases the chance of a significant move once the price finally breaks.

Solana rallied over the weekend but ran directly into two layers of resistance. It touched both an ascending trend line and the upper boundary of a descending parallel channel, then printed a pronounced long upper wick. That rejection created a clear short-term resistance signal. Solana needs to break above both resistance lines before the structure becomes convincingly bullish.

Pump. Fun remains highly illiquid and carries additional risk because of allegations that some trading activity may involve wash trading. Those claims are not confirmed, but they add another layer of uncertainty. Price returned to the October 10 wick low near $0.002000092, roughly 0.2 cents, and the daily candle closed almost exactly at that level. The 4-hour chart then consolidated and started moving higher. There are small bull flag continuation patterns on the lower time frames, but they deserve less weight than the same setup would on a daily chart.

The most interesting longer-term signal may be Bitcoin priced in gold. During the 2017 bull market, one Bitcoin could buy 15 ounces of gold before falling back to roughly 2 ounces. The next major pivot low arrived about 60 weeks later. During the March 2020 decline, Bitcoin fell to near $3,000, but the ratio later recovered. In 2021, one Bitcoin was worth 36 ounces of gold, and at the more recent high, it reached 40 ounces.

The timing is what stands out. One peak-to-bottom cycle lasted 62 weeks, and the next peak-to-trough cycle also lasted 62 weeks. That repeated pattern suggests Bitcoin may have already formed a bottom when measured against gold, even though the dollar chart still needs confirmation.

Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million coins, with mining expected to continue until roughly 2140. About 20 million coins have already been created, representing roughly 95% of the total supply. Gold supply also increases each year, but cash can expand much faster as governments fund spending, deficits, and interest payments. The official inflation target may be 2%, but continued money creation still strengthens the longer-term case for scarce assets.

The setup is improving, especially when Bitcoin is measured against gold, but the dollar chart still needs to break resistance. This is a market where patience, position control, and respect for the stated levels matter more than trying to predict the move before price confirms it.