Bitcoin Pullback Tests Whether the Crypto Bottom Is Really In

Bitcoin (BTC) is pulling back after a strong breakout and is now consolidating beneath major resistance, while Gold Futures (GC) are also falling sharply into an important support area. The bigger question is whether these pullbacks create attractive opportunities or whether both markets still need to move lower before buyers regain control.

Let’s start with Bitcoin because that is the chart I am watching most closely right now. Bitcoin had a major breakout, but instead of immediately taking off, price stayed above the breakout trend line, consolidated for a while, and then moved strongly higher. That is a good reminder that a breakout doesn't always produce an immediate rally. Sometimes price simply needs time to consolidate before the next move develops.

That rally eventually ran directly into a major resistance area created by several previous highs, along with an ascending trend line. Bitcoin could not get through that combination of resistance, and price has since moved lower.

The important question now is whether Bitcoin has already put in its major bottom and whether the broader bear market is over. Technically, I do not think we can say that yet.

Bitcoin still has not established the higher high and higher low structure I want to see. The previous major high is around $82,850, and the latest rally failed to take that level out. Until Bitcoin breaks above that high and then begins establishing a clearer pattern of higher highs and higher lows, I cannot confirm that the larger bearish structure has ended.

There is also some shorter-term weakness developing. Bitcoin formed a reversal candle that engulfed the previous green candle, and since then price has been moving sideways in an inside bar consolidation. That creates a potential bear flag, which increases the possibility of another move lower.

That does not guarantee a breakdown. If Bitcoin takes out the recent high, the bear flag fails, and price could break higher. But until that happens, I have to respect the possibility of a deeper pullback.

The first Fibonacci support is around $75,800 at the 23.6% retracement, but that is not the level that stands out to me. The 38.2% retracement is more reasonable, and the 50% retracement is stronger. The area that becomes especially interesting is around the 61.8% retracement because it lines up with major support around $66,500 to $67,000, with the Fibonacci alignment around $66,800 to $67,000.

That area also lines up with previous major pivot highs and the breakout zone from the inverse head and shoulder pattern. So if Bitcoin does pull back into that region, several technical factors would be coming together at the same time.

Could buying there still be early if the broader bear market is not finished? Absolutely. But with that much technical support converging in one area, it becomes an attractive level to consider for at least a swing trade.

Gold is setting up differently because the pullback is already much further along. Gold has reversed its previous move very quickly and is now testing an important support area around $4,325.

If buyers are going to defend this pullback, this is where I want to start seeing them make a stand. If $4,325 holds, gold has an opportunity to stabilize from here. If it breaks, the next downside level is approximately $4,250.

Below that, the area I find much more interesting is around $4,165. That level lines up with previous major pivot highs, and there is also an ascending trend line moving into the same general area.

As that trend line continues rising, the stronger technical zone could develop around $4,160 to $4,150. If gold takes a little more time to move lower and eventually reaches that area, the trend line, previous pivots, and price support would all begin lining up.

So right now, I am not interested in chasing either Bitcoin or gold. Bitcoin still needs to prove that the larger bearish structure has changed, with $82,850 remaining the major confirmation level, while a deeper pullback toward the $665 to $67,000 area would create a much more interesting technical setup. Gold is already testing $4,325, with $4,250 below it and the stronger $4,165 to $4,150 area becoming increasingly important if the selling continues.

The levels are there, so there is no reason to force anything. I would rather remain patient, let price come to the important areas, and then make the market prove that buyers are actually stepping back in.