Bitcoin Holds the $60,000 Zone as the Bear Market Low Comes Into Focus

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $62,993, and the next 60 days are becoming especially important because Bitcoin has already tested an area we were watching for a potential cycle low.

The biggest change is what happened around $60,000. Bitcoin already broke that level below, reached a low of $57,717.55, and then recovered back above $60,000. Price is now consolidating inside the broader $60,000 to $65,000 buy zone.

So the question has changed. We are no longer waiting to see whether Bitcoin can break below $60,000. It already did. Now we need to determine whether $57,717.55 was the major low or whether Bitcoin eventually loses this area and makes one more move lower.

Seasonality still matters here. In the 2022 midterm year, Bitcoin was down in May and June, up in July, then down again in August and September. We saw the same sequence in 2018. So far in 2026, Bitcoin has again been down in May and June and up in July.

Seasonality is never guaranteed, but historically it has worked roughly 70% of the time. Going back to 2010 and looking specifically at midterm years, Bitcoin has averaged a decline of roughly 10% to 11% in August and another 8% in September.

That makes the current support structure very important. The first area I am watching is $60,000, followed by $58,950.59 and then the recent low at $57,717.55. If Bitcoin can defend those levels through the historically weaker August and September period, the argument that a major low is already forming becomes much stronger. If $57,717.55 breaks, then another move into the low $50,000s remains possible.

Cycle timing also tells us we are getting closer. Two cycles ago, Bitcoin reached its major low around day 1,432 from the previous cycle low. Last cycle, it bottomed around day 1,436. We are currently around day 1,360. Another 60 days puts us near day 1,420, within roughly one or two weeks of where those previous cycle lows occurred.

The larger structure still resembles 2018. Bitcoin topped around October 2025, with a high of $126,296.00, and then developed a clear head and shoulders structure before the larger decline. Since then, we have continued to see lower highs and a broader descending trend.

Bitcoin did manage a meaningful rally this year, reaching the $80,000 to $85,000 target zone in May, but that move failed. Price then lost $75,723.42 and $70,271.18 before falling back into the current $60,000 to $65,000 area.

Those levels now matter on the way back up. The first major level I want to see reclaimed is $70,271.18. Above that, $75,723.42 becomes the next hurdle. If Bitcoin can eventually recover both, then the $80,000 to $85,000 area comes back into focus. Beyond that, the next major level is around $93,093.50.

Until then, the broader structure remains under pressure.

Timing is where this gets interesting. Previous major cycle lows have gradually moved earlier on the calendar, from January to December, then from December to November. That makes October a legitimate candidate this time. The probability placed on an October low is around 50%, with the remaining 50% spread across the other possible months.

Bear market duration points toward a similar window. A 52-week bear market would put the low around the week of October 5. A 54-week bear market would put it around the week of October 19. If this stretches to 59 weeks, then we are looking closer to the week of November 23.

That is why I do not want to become locked into one date. Bitcoin could already be building its low around $60,000, or we could spend August and September moving sideways before getting one final decline later in the fall. We saw something similar in 2018, when volatility disappeared for months before the final breakdown.

I am also watching whether the on-chain indicators finish resetting. The MVRV Z score has tended to move below zero during midterm years, while the broader on-chain risk measure has historically fallen below 0.1 near the end of those periods.

For now, $60,000 to $65,000 is the area that matters most. Holding $58,950.59 and $57,717.55 keeps the possibility of a major low alive. Losing them keeps the door open to one final move lower. On the upside, I want to see $70,271.18 and $75,723.42 reclaimed before becoming more confident that the bear market structure is actually changing.