Bitcoin Breaks Its Bear Market Structure, but Deep Pullbacks Still Matter

Bitcoin is holding above its major descending trend line after breaking out to a new higher high, the clearest technical sign that market structure has changed. The opportunity is that a new bull cycle may be developing, but the risk is assuming that means Bitcoin now moves straight higher without another deep correction.

In One Minute

Bitcoin (BTC) has shifted from a bear-market pattern of lower highs to a higher high, increasing the probability that the previous bear-market low is already in. The first support area is around $81,080, followed by $75,500, with deeper support around $66,000 to $67,000. The bigger picture remains bullish as long as that improving structure holds, but previous cycles tell us to expect meaningful pullbacks. Longer term, the cycle projection points toward approximately $175,000 around 2029, not a straight line higher from here.

The Setup

The main thing controlling Bitcoin right now is market structure.

During the bear market, Bitcoin would sell off, bounce, and then fail below the previous rebound high. That gave us a repeated sequence of lower highs. The latest rally finally changed that pattern by pushing above the previous major rebound high and creating a higher high.

That does not give us certainty, but it does increase the probability that the bear market low is behind us and that we are moving into the early stages of another bull market.

The important thing is not to confuse a new bull market with a vertical market. Looking back at the 2018 and 2022 recoveries, Bitcoin still experienced significant corrections after the first major structural improvement. Some of those moves came surprisingly close to the previous lows before the larger advance continued.

What Changed

The first important change was the break above the long descending trend line that had been controlling Bitcoin during the decline.

More importantly, Bitcoin did not immediately fall back below that line. Price stayed above it, worked along the breakout area, and then expanded higher. That gave the breakout more credibility.

The next confirmation came around $75,500. That level held during the consolidation, even while the market was under pressure. Instead of breaking down, Bitcoin held the area, moved sideways, and eventually accelerated higher.

That rally then produced the bigger structural confirmation: a higher high above the previous major rebound high. That is the change that matters most.

Digital Assets and Crypto

Bitcoin remains the main story here.

The current structure gives me three important support areas to watch.

The first is approximately $81,080. This is an important prior pivot area and a zone where Bitcoin previously spent time consolidating before moving higher. If Bitcoin pulls back, I want to see whether that former resistance can now act as support.

Below that is $75,500. That level already proved important during the previous consolidation. Bitcoin held it before the breakout, so it remains an important secondary support level.

If $75,500 fails, the next major zone is approximately $66,000 to $67,000. A move that deep would look ugly after the recent rally, but it would not automatically destroy the larger bullish setup. Early bull markets can produce sharp corrections, and previous Bitcoin cycles have done exactly that.

That is why I would not expect Bitcoin to simply move vertically toward $150,000. The more realistic path is higher highs, corrections, consolidation, and then another leg higher if the broader structure continues to improve.

The longer-term setup is where things become interesting. Previous Bitcoin cycles took roughly one year to complete the bear market, followed by approximately three years from the bear market low to the eventual bull market peak. The previous measurements came in around 1,060 days and 1,058 days.

If that general timing continues, the next major cycle peak would fall around 2029. Extending the historical resistance trend line into that period gives a Bitcoin target around $175,000.

From the bear market low, that would represent approximately a 200% gain. Compared with the previous major high near $127,000, it would represent roughly a 40% higher high.

Why It Matters

Bitcoin is becoming a larger asset, so we should not expect every future cycle to produce the same percentage gains we saw when Bitcoin was much smaller.

Think about the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC). When the Nasdaq was at 5,000, moving to 6,000 represented a 20% gain. As an asset becomes larger, producing the same percentage move requires significantly more capital.

The same principle applies to Bitcoin. A 40% move from around $127,000 represents a much larger increase in absolute value than a 40% move when Bitcoin was trading around $20,000. There is also a broader cycle question developing.

As debt continues to expand and institutional participation increases, Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as a digital store of value. Gold cycles have also been tightening, and if Bitcoin continues developing as a form of digital gold, its bear market cycles could continue getting shorter.

What we do not know yet is whether the bull market cycle will also shorten. Changing debt conditions, interest rates, and institutional participation could affect the timing, so the 2029 projection needs to remain flexible.

Key Levels

The most important near-term level is $81,080. Below that, $75,500 becomes the more meaningful structural test. If both give way, $66,000 to $67,000 becomes the deeper area to watch.

Bull Case

The bullish case starts with Bitcoin continuing to hold above the broken descending trend line and maintaining the new higher high structure.

A pullback that holds around $81,080 would strengthen the argument that former resistance has become support. Holding $75,500 would keep the larger breakout structure intact even if the correction becomes more significant.

From there, continued higher highs and higher lows would keep the broader cycle pointed toward the longer-term $175,000 projection around 2029.

Bear Case

The first warning would be a loss of $81,080. If Bitcoin then breaks below $75,500, the correction could deepen significantly and bring $66,000 to $67,000 back into play.

That would create a much more uncomfortable market, but within this cycle framework it would not automatically mean the bull market thesis is dead. Previous early bull markets have experienced large drawdowns before continuing higher.

The larger risk is assuming the historical timing has to repeat exactly. If Bitcoin cycles are becoming compressed, the eventual bull market peak could also arrive earlier than the 2029 projection.

What to Watch Next

The next major test is straightforward: watch how Bitcoin behaves during its next meaningful pullback. I want to see whether $81,080 holds first. If it does not, $75,500 becomes the more important support test. If that breaks, attention shifts toward $66,000 to $67,000.

Beyond the immediate pullback, the bigger confirmation is structural. Bitcoin needs to continue producing higher highs and higher lows rather than returning to the lower high pattern that defined the bear market.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin has made the technical change I wanted to see: the long descending trend has broken, $75,500 held, and the market produced a higher high.

That increases the probability that the previous bear market low is already in, but it does not eliminate the likelihood of another large correction. The key levels are now approximately $81,080, $75,500, and then $66,000 to $67,000, while the longer-term cycle framework points toward approximately $175,000 around 2029.

The structure is improving, but patience still matters: let Bitcoin prove that old resistance can become support before assuming the next major leg higher has already begun.