Bitcoin and Gold Test Resistance as Yields Keep Markets on Edge

Futures tied to the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are starting the session slightly lower, down about 0.16%, but the move remains modest. The larger market is still trading sideways while investors wait for a series of events that could shape yields, technology stocks, commodities, and crypto through the second half of the week.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data arrives Wednesday at 8:30 AM. That matters because yields were one of the biggest concerns last week, and inflation could determine whether those pressures continue.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) reports earnings Wednesday after the close, with results expected between 4:30 PM and 5:00 PM ET. Those numbers could influence semiconductor stocks and broader expectations for artificial intelligence capital spending.

The Jackson Hole meeting is another major event. Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak Friday at 10:00 AM, with investors looking for any indication of whether the Federal Reserve could raise rates in September. This is expected to be his last major speech before the September 16 meeting.

Trade tensions are also building between the United States and Canada after negotiations broke down. The United States is imposing 50% tariffs on $20 billion of goods, while Canada says it will respond with tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods. Those measures are scheduled to take effect September 8 if no agreement is reached.

There are also renewed economic threats against Iran, although crude oil has largely ignored them so far. For now, markets appear much more focused on inflation, NVIDIA earnings, Jackson Hole, and what happens next in the bond market.

Technically, the S&P 500 Index remains between resistance around 78.50 and support around 73.60. As long as the index remains above approximately 75.70, the near-term bias remains bullish, with another test of the upper trend line possible.

These are not newly formed technical levels. The ascending resistance line extends back to 2024 and has connected several important highs, while the lower trend line previously acted as resistance and has since become support. That makes both areas more meaningful than a level created by only a few recent trading sessions.

Long-dated Treasury yields remain one of the most important macro risks. The U.S. Treasury announced another $2 billion in purchases of longer dated bonds, including the 20 year and 30 year maturities, in an effort to bring yields down.

The initial response did not last. Yields declined briefly and then moved back up, suggesting the bond market was not convinced that $2 billion of additional buying was enough to meaningfully influence a market dealing with roughly $40 trillion of debt.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is seeing only a small bounce, with relatively little movement so far.

Spot Gold (XAU) continues to extend one of its strongest recent moves. Gold is up another 1.6% and has gained roughly 18.5%, almost 20%, from the recent low around $3,900 following the breakout from its descending trend line.

The important issue now is resistance. Gold is approaching an area where an ascending trend line, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and a previous pivot high begin to converge. That creates a major resistance zone between approximately $4,700 and $4,760.

The size of the breakout has been impressive, but after a move this large, a shallow consolidation that builds a new base would be healthier than a sharp reversal. The move is beginning to resemble the strength seen toward the end of gold's earlier 2026 advance.

Spot Silver (XAG) is also moving higher and approaching short-term resistance around $71 to $71.50. If buyers can clear that area, the next important pivot sits around $79.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures (CL) reached a descending trend line from a larger wedge and is now pulling back modestly. Despite the economic threats involving Iran, the market has not responded as if military action is immediately expected. The current view is that military action is unlikely before the midterm elections, although that remains uncertain.

Natural Gas Futures (NG) are becoming more interesting technically. Price is again pressing against a trend line that has rejected multiple breakout attempts. Each failed attempt has brought sellers back into the market, but repeated tests also make the next move worth watching closely. The question is whether sellers can continue defending the same level or whether price finally pushes through.

Technology is showing more weakness than the broader market.

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930) disappointed investors overnight with the amount of capital expected to be returned to shareholders. That contributed to weakness in Asia, with the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) falling about 3.5%.

That weakness is feeding into the U.S. semiconductor trade. Technically, the KOSPI setup is concerning because a large decline followed by a partial rebound can resemble a bearish continuation pattern. The more important answer should come Wednesday after the close when NVIDIA reports.

Semiconductor weakness could remain relatively contained before those results, but NVIDIA is positioned to influence technology trading on Thursday and Friday because of its importance to semiconductor demand and artificial intelligence spending.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) is trading lower after announcing a discounted equity sale to raise additional money for artificial intelligence investment. The stock is also coming off earnings that were described as disappointing.

Technically, Alibaba is moving back toward the area where its earlier breakout began. That places approximately $115 on the radar as a potential long-side swing trade level, although the setup does not yet justify automatically buying simply because price reaches it.

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) is also under significant pressure. The stock closed Friday around $867 and is trading around $820, representing roughly 6% to 7% downside in early trading. A previously unfilled gap around $780 stands out as a possible day trade level, but not as a swing trade setup. Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) is showing similar weakness. The stock closed Friday at $125, fell to $112 after hours, and is now around $108.

The area around $100 is the main level of interest. If price falls through $100, it could create a possible day trade opportunity, but there is currently no swing trade level identified. PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) is moving higher following earnings.

The stock has a pivot high and gap fill around $93, but the current setup does not make an immediate short attractive because the stock has already been heavily compressed. Price could continue expanding higher before becoming sufficiently extended to create a better reversal setup.

If PDD continues higher intraday, approximately $96.60 to $97 becomes the more interesting area for a possible day trade short. That area lines up with previous pivot points and represents another potential return to an earlier breakout zone. The setup remains strictly a day trade idea rather than a swing trade position.

Bitcoin (BTC) is coming off one of its strongest weeks in years, but after such a large move, the chart is now pressing directly into meaningful resistance.

Bitcoin rallied into a well-established trend line on Friday and then pulled back. The major level is approximately $80,000, where substantial resistance remains after the recent surge. From a technical probability standpoint, a pullback is now the more likely near-term scenario. A roughly 50% retracement of the latest move would place Bitcoin in the $71,000 to $73,000 area before another potential push higher.

That does not erase the strength of the recent rally. Bitcoin just had its best week in years, and the broader move remains significant. But after a monumental advance into $80,000 resistance, chasing price becomes much less attractive than waiting to see how Bitcoin handles a normal retracement. The next move in Bitcoin will not happen in isolation. Inflation data, Treasury intervention, Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole comments, and the direction of yields could influence Bitcoin alongside gold and silver.

That connection matters because the same macro forces influencing bond yields and the dollar are also helping determine whether capital continues moving toward scarce assets such as Bitcoin and precious metals.

This week brings several major pressure points together at once. The S&P 500 remains technically constructive above its pivot, but yields continue to challenge attempts to push them lower. NVIDIA earnings could determine whether semiconductor weakness spreads or stabilizes, while inflation and Jackson Hole could reshape expectations for rates.

Gold and silver remain strong but are approaching resistance after major advances. Bitcoin is in a similar position, with $80,000 acting as the immediate barrier and $71,000 to $73,000 representing the main retracement zone if buyers lose momentum.

The broader setup still offers opportunity, but after such powerful moves across gold, Bitcoin, and parts of the equity market, patience matters more than chasing price. Let the major levels decide the next trade.